July 15th-19th. (predictions and snowfall discussion)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by thepass, Jul 12, 2006.

  1. thepass

    thepass First Runs

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    My prediction is that there will be bout 65cm on high slopes of NSW resorts. And a complete washout for the vic resorts :p

    ******************************

    Moderator's note:

    We usually have separate predictions/discussion threads and Observations threads, so I've changed the title from "Obs/predictions only please".
     
  2. thepass

    thepass First Runs

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    WOW have a look at this obs for Carnegie WA. This is from the low and the trough in WA. At 3 o'clock on the 9 of July the temp was 26.6 degrees, and there hadn't been any rain. On the 10th at 3 o'clock the temp was 24 degrees and no rain. Suddenly on the 11th at the same time. The temp was 8.1 degrees and there was 13mm of rain.

    Looks like this one has the lot precip and low temps. heres the radar of Giles WA. [​IMG]
     
  3. steve8113

    steve8113 First Runs

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    frog is now calling that there will be snow above 1700m or so this weekend, thats got to be a goos sign
     
  4. bogong_flyer

    bogong_flyer First Runs

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    One of the POSSIBLE outcomes from this system as all the cold air pours into inland Australia and the cloud and rain develops is that we might well get reports of snowfalls in some pretty unusual places particularly in WA/SA/NT. With 850hpa tems of around -2 and if the air is relatively dry at lower levels (meaning that evaporative cooling may keep the temps low enough for snow to survive to ground levels), there could be snowfalls anywhere above about 1200m in WA/SA/NT.

    The sorts of places where this might be possible include some of the higher areas in WA - Gascoyne even up to the Pibara (but very unlikely) moving across to SA/NT - Kata Tjuta(Olgas), Uluru and more likely (but not too unusual) the Flinders ranges.

    Other than the Flinders on Friday/Saturday I wouldn't expect any reports of settling snow - but you never know.

    For the Australian Alps it is starting to look like rain everywhere in the early part of the event followed by lowering snow levels later Saturday and particularly Sunday.
     
  5. longinforearly90s

    longinforearly90s First Runs

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    do any of the weather commentators remember the direction of the low trough on Aug 15 2003 that brought 100mm! of r**n to all resorts. I seem to remember that it warmed considerably in the 36 hours before it hit. it was about 20 in Canberra the day before. Is this system similar?
     
  6. Biggy

    Biggy First Runs

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    Complete washout below 1700 meters, huge dump above 1700 meters. thredbo is in trouble unless the high predicted after provides cold enough temperatures for snowmakers to make, lots.
     
  7. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

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    Tss, tss, tss....we are speaking a lot about the 1700 m marks but being cautious and based on the accuracy on the long term forecast ! I would probably go for huge washout for what is between and under 1700m 'till 1900m or huge dump for what is between and above 1500m 'till 1700m. hopefully, the second option prevails... [​IMG]
     
    #7 viswin, Jul 12, 2006
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  8. trent78

    trent78 First Runs

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    I remember in July 2003 and falls got over 1 meter. If I remember correctly that was a low sitting north but a cold front passed over victoria at the same time. It rained for about 12 hours first until the cold front passed dropping the temp enough for snow to fall.

    This system on the weekend looks simular but no cold front passing at the same time...

    I am no expert and only going off what I remember.
     
  9. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Not sure of the direction but I remember the event. The Perisher Creek was flowing as wide as the footbridges and there was a creek running through the bottom of the Terminal chair at BC. The only saving grace was at the end of it we did get 10cm to cover up the damage.

    Would be great to see any type of snow this weekend and hopefully if it is above 1700 we will see the start of Mt P opening. Lowest point in the resort is the bottom of ridge at 1605m but snowmaking has that area covered. :cheers:
     
    #9 Outlooker, Jul 12, 2006
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I hear alot of the term 'wash-out'. Does anyone want to back up they're claims with some facts, obs, or theories.

    Bogong, do you have access to upper levels data to somewhere near this system? I'd be interested to see the 'in details'.
     
  11. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

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    It would be good to see a huge drop in the upper level air temperature as it happened over SA on 17 July 1965 which had for consequences the major 18 July snow storm....I was not yet borned but anyway would be good [​IMG]
     
    #11 viswin, Jul 12, 2006
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  12. longinforearly90s

    longinforearly90s First Runs

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    yes but the upper level cold air didn't have a huge hole to escape thru back when jesus was a boy. Im thinking bout that system in Aug 2003 and I think it came down more from western QLD? Any more thoughts?
     
  13. Louie

    Louie A Local

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    all the models I have seen (GASP, GFS, LAPSA) are going for a r$$%n event of some sort. None of those show any chance of any snow below 1900+m. The severity of the r$$% event varies from a few 10's of mm to 100mm+. I hope it is on the low side as I am desperate for a snow fix.
     
  14. bogong_flyer

    bogong_flyer First Runs

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    POW - the coldest air with this system is currently over the southern inland of WA. The two stations with closest soundings from this morning are Kalgoorlie and Meekatharra.

    The first sounding below is from Kalgoorlie:
    [​IMG]

    The temp at the surface (370m) is 2.6C and very gradually falls to freezing at around 1200m. Under this profile snow could probably fall to around 800 m - or possibly even lower under any showers that were around. The 850 temp is -2.1 at 1557m. There is a fair bit of humidity in the lower levels so there could be a few light showers in the area.

    The second sounding is from Meekatharra:

    [​IMG]

    The air here is a bit warmer with freezing level right on 1600m. Any showers here could probably survive as snow down to around 1300m.

    The coldness of these soundings are very unusual for this part of Australia.

    Giles and Alice Springs will be very interesting to watch in the next couple of days.
     
    #14 bogong_flyer, Jul 12, 2006
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  15. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Snow at Uluru? They did get some snow falling around Uluru only a few years ago and it was not in winter so strange things can happen.

    Mt Woodroofe is SA highest peak at 1435m so strap on the skis and head north......
     
  16. longinforearly90s

    longinforearly90s First Runs

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    Woomera forecast for Friday: a top of 9 degrees, cold and moderate falls of rain. This is a very strange system. That's not typical weather for the back of no where in SA.
     
  17. Anewts

    Anewts Addicted

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    Imo this system is looking better today for snow to lower levels. By Sunday evening snow is forecast to around 1200m or so - if you go by GFS. Keep an eye on the way things bounce around, there is a lot of room for things to improve!

    Andrew
     
  18. Zyka

    Zyka First Runs

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    Wow! The suspense is unbearable - We know this system has a huge amount of moisture & we know it's heading for the snowfields. Not much 'grey' in the options - It's either black or white with this baby - A white meter+ mega-dump or a very black season ending wash-out. The entire 2006 season hanging on the thread of a freeze level of 300m +/- of forecasts. Roll-on Saturday.
     
  19. Shane-wx

    Shane-wx First Runs

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    EC currently has this system north, crossing sydney which therefore means alps will miss out the bulk of the rain/snow (Which i guess can be a good sign for the lower parts), but yeh we will see what EC does on next update. EC is the model to trust on the event and GFS (not so much tho).
     
  20. steeps

    steeps Addicted

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    Shane - why EC v others ? This is the first I have heard of the moisture drying up over the alps ?
     
  21. Shane-wx

    Shane-wx First Runs

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    Yeh i mean the moisture is still there, but the bulk of the low pressure system rain looks to be more towards sydney area, (If you look at EC its centered nearly straight over syd as it crosses the coast) we can only hope this comes off and the next EC update agrees again. [​IMG]

    P.S I choose to trust EC alot more because its one of the most complex and accurate model predictions we aussies have to choose from. GASP is horrible.
     
    #21 Shane-wx, Jul 12, 2006
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  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC forecast for Saturday & Sunday
    It doesn't look as moist was it was a few days ago.
    [​IMG]

    The positioning of the colder southerlies together with a little moisture is interesting.
    [​IMG]

    Tonight's update will be interesting
     
    #22 Claude Cat, Jul 12, 2006
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  23. steeps

    steeps Addicted

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    Thanks Shane. BOM has low passing lower (south of Sydney) with a potential nice feed from SE between the low and the trailing edge of the high following it..(well according to MSLP charts - I aint that sophisticated)...so late Sunday could see colder air coming in. This is all very exciting...could be zero to hero ?
     
  24. Shane-wx

    Shane-wx First Runs

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    np steeps, yes late sunday is looking by far one of the most interesting days, with the snowline possibly lowering down to 1200/1300m ASL going by GFS [​IMG] and with the low positioned how it is it could well be interesting! we'll wait and see, i'am find it encouraging that models have agreed on a strengthening of the upper trough just behind the low.

    P.S LAPS looks as though its back abit off on precip, roughly 5 to 10mm for most resorts going by it. (which is easily barebale with the snow making facilities we have these days) although the high slopes wont need anything by the looks [​IMG] hehe
     
    #24 Shane-wx, Jul 12, 2006
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  25. longinforearly90s

    longinforearly90s First Runs

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    tumbarumba Sat, Min 1, Max 4 & rain. Its north west of snowies and is bout 750m. It will be interesting to see how the weather develops there.
     
  26. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    i thought the pretty colours on the EC charts were 850hPa windspeed in m/s (numbers drawn from the little legend on the right) rather than moisture....
     
  27. keefy

    keefy First Runs

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    NSW BOM, thinks it may deliver...?

    "Fine weather is then expected to continue on Friday before a trough of low pressure brings some unsettled weather during the weekend. Rain periods are expected to develop on Saturday, and continue into Sunday. Snow falls are expected to be confined to the peaks on Saturday, but by Sunday some colder air in the upper atmosphere will allow snow to fall to lower
    levels" :angel:

    I reckon its touch and go depends on where that low ends up! However I can muster up some confidence as I recall 2003 when I went down to PB in July, P****g down Sunday PM, but turned to beautiful white snow overnight and turned out to be an awesome few days. Sometimes it is the marginal events that produce the goods. (Hoping and praying)
     
  28. martium

    martium First Runs

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    I realise this is a weather thread but couldn't resist publishing a couple of photos from the July 2003 dump that trent78 mentioned.

    [​IMG]
    The Hollow, early afternoon.

    [​IMG]
    Shortcut near Silverski, that night.

    [​IMG]
    Towards Spion Kopje, the day after.

    Let's hope it turns out similar.
     
    #28 martium, Jul 12, 2006
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  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    yes m/s
     
    #29 Claude Cat, Jul 12, 2006
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  30. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

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    Same happened for me at PB last year in Sptember. If I remember, it was the weekend 9-10 September with an amazing quantity of water on the sunday morning but a beautifull white and dry pow on the Monday...so..
     
  31. Cuppa

    Cuppa A Local

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    BOM are not too excited about the chance of snow for the Vic Alpine.

     
    #31 Cuppa, Jul 12, 2006
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  32. keefy

    keefy First Runs

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    Amazing how the VIC / NSW BOM's differ so wildly?

    [​IMG]
     
    #32 keefy, Jul 12, 2006
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  33. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Seasons dont end mid-July
     
    #33 The Plowking, Jul 12, 2006
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  34. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Just like the commentators in the forums [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #34 Outlooker, Jul 12, 2006
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  35. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    No seasons dont end as such but this weekend will make a huge difference to August
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This afternoon's GFS seems to match up nicely with this mornings EC for Sunday.
     
  37. iSki

    iSki First Runs

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    What a let down, I got up this morning hoping it had snowed, would've done a run down chamois, it hadn't... slept till 10:30, got up, had a pie, and headed back to Melbourne. damn [​IMG]
     
    #37 iSki, Jul 12, 2006
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  38. Zyka

    Zyka First Runs

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    If this Low really comes in as a warm rain event and the miserable base is knocked back to zero then only a once-in-a-centaury dump in late July will save August - With the Highs hovering the way they have been (and continue to do, pushing all fronts to NZ) I'd don't see anything like that predicated or likely. I can't see how this weekend isn't make-or-break for the Ski industry in 2006.
     
    #38 Zyka, Jul 12, 2006
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  39. Louie

    Louie A Local

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    they do for alpine businesses. No use a 3m base for them in september. The next 4-6 weeks define the season and it aint looking good so far.
     
    #39 Louie, Jul 12, 2006
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  40. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Baw Baw, buffalo, stirling, lake mountain basically have no snow now, so this will only effect them if it snows. They usually all open on one-dump systems. Its a bad start to the season for them but this wont be any worse than it is now.

    Hotham falls buller have a foot on the ground. If it rains it wont be good for them but they have got they're money from snowmaking so far, not natural snow. They will be hurt but most August bookings are booked.

    NSW should do ok out of this lot i reckon.
     
  41. Zyka

    Zyka First Runs

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    and if the Webcam on Sunday shows nice wet grass my mid August booking will be promptly cancelled (I'll wear the 25% fee). If this weekend is a washout there wont be recovery by then to anything worthwhile - I'll accept that and focus on NZ, Summer OS or next year. Everyone is free to do as they choose, but this weekend's results will decide the season for me in Oz
     
    #41 Zyka, Jul 12, 2006
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  42. Cuppa

    Cuppa A Local

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    Lets talk about the weather.
     
  43. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bad seasons hurt alpine businesses but so long as there is some snow they will all hopefully be open until late september. The season will NOT END this weekend. It may go to sh-eye-t for a while but it wont end. My glass is half full until september.


    Yes Sorry. Back on topic.
     
    #43 The Plowking, Jul 12, 2006
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  44. Tyson

    Tyson First Runs

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    If only it was that simple for me. I'm from perth and 3 months ago booked myself in for next week. I leave saturday, and will arrive at Falls on sunday for the week. Theres no cancelling or pulling out for me.

    I dunno though, i got a good feeling about this system. No real technical observations, just past experience. I think it will rain moderatly saturday, but come sunday we will wake up to a nice surprise out our window!!! [​IMG]
     
    #44 Tyson, Jul 12, 2006
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  45. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    umm, don't know what sort of esteem Mike the weatherman (ch 10 - Melb) is held in, but the weather forecast he just put up for Vicco said 12 C Sat and rain, 13 C Sun and rain, 13 C Mon & rain clearing - if that panned out then it should be :puke:

    ( disclaimer - no technical knowledge used here [​IMG] )
     
    #45 luvthabumps, Jul 12, 2006
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  46. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Mr Mike i think get his info from the Weather Co...he dosn't 'make' it up himself i dont think.
     
  47. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Ha and to think i posted this:

    .

    Now i sure do look like a fool! :p .

    :cheers:
     
    #47 Stratus, Jul 12, 2006
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  48. The Loose Binding

    The Loose Binding First Runs

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    [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #48 The Loose Binding, Jul 12, 2006
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  49. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

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    It is good to see all the guns firing on the 4.40 pm supertrail cam at Thredbo...keep building to minimise any lost...good attitude.
     
  50. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    I dunno where all this doom and gloom weekend stuff is coming from.

    Check out the snow level predictions for is weekend and early next week. These are based on 17.49 run of predicted snow levels and the position of the DAM lines isn't that bad, aint great but no season ender at this point.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]