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July 15th-19th. (predictions and snowfall discussion)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by thepass, Jul 12, 2006.

  1. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Those charts dont look all that bad actually.

    Also - I dont know how people can say 'season enders' in early July. The worst that can happen is take us back to square one as we wait for more snowfalls. There is still the rest of July, then glorious August and even September. Who knows this could be a late season!

    :cheers:
     
  2. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    What these charts show us is that the situation is constantly changing. To me, todays chart is an upgrade compared to yesterday that showed moisure but not much cold air.

    The associated systems that surround the 'event' are the ones to look out for especially the shapes of the ajoining high pressure systems that will drive cold air up into the moisture and provide a degree of fetch.

    I've got a positive feeling about this and that the event could range from a mixture of rain/snow, to an a fairly positive dump of good stuff across higher resorts. I think that resorts in the 1550> range will be pretty OK, what we need is a lower freeze level to help out the lower altitudes.

    As the days wear on don't look at what the low is doing watch how the high to its left develops.
     
  3. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Broome that is sitting in the path of this system recorded a high of just 19.9 at 1330 this afternoon. 19.9 in a town that enjoys maximum temps in the high 20's at this time of year!

    Doesn't sound like 'masses of warm tropical air' are coming our way (as posted in other posts on this subject).
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Broome... As in Broome WA?! Is is nowhere near the depression. Only correlation I could possibly see is it maybe in the same jetstream, but even then i'd have to double check!
     
  5. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    POW, check out the 4pm BOM MLSP. The trough was only a hundred clicks at most from Broome.

    [​IMG]
     
    #55 rossi, Jul 12, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't forget it's passing over several deserts and dry landmasses for several days. It has no cold feed and must maintain it for it to reach us as snow.
     
  7. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    So...

    Looking at GASP and LAPS the moisture should be well arrived by Saturday morning. Both the 850hPa GFS and LAPS temps look HIGH for Saturday (0 - 2C), and infact GFS is showing 850temps of above 0C for most of the weekend, also LAPS is showing even higher temps then GFS at +72hours at 850level, so whether this is an indication of LAPS forecasting higher overall upper temps for the weekend in the next few runs should be considered.

    However, 500hPa temps are showing significantly cold air coming in around the Alpine areas Saturday evening/Sunday morning, this dosn't seem to be affecting 850hPa levels on the chart, but at least its good to know cold upper levels are still there!

    [​IMG]

    The only problem we are going to have here, as we all know it, is the temperature. The low formed and has crossed (as PoW said above) lots of dry warm areas of land, so it will be warm when the system arrives. For me though, I am hoping the high on the left will push in quickly when the low is positioned so together they can drag up cold air, while there is still enough moisture. This looks likeley to be happening on Sunday evening/Monday, but it could all well be too late, and at this stage only around 5cm with the lower snow levels on Monday and possibly another 5cm on Tuesday. (pressure also looking low = good)

    [​IMG]


    My forecast (for Falls): Overnight Friday a possibily of some showers, but i think the main brunt of the rain looks arriving Saturday afternoon/evening and possibly...just maybe... dumpage of snow on the peaks (dunno above 1850m maybe), but overnight Saturday and into Sunday i think there *could* be a chance of a heavy spots of snowfall above 1700m - 1750m. I also think it may get significantly colder on Sunday for snow showers above 1600m. As the low moves eastwards we could see the snowlevel dropping, but only around Sunday night/Monday, and isolated/patchy snowfalls for the next day or so arn't out of the question!

    I think 10cm-20cm untill Tuesday morning isn't out of the question, but this is after persistent rain on Saturday and going off possibly dodgey charts with lots of other variables :p !

    :cheers:

    EDIT: I have also noticed i may be talking about two differn't 'fronts'. The main moisture event on Saturday/Sunday then the fronts that looks to push up with snow Monday/Tuesday-ish!
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    Look at the trough mapped by Weatherzone, this is where the moisture is...
     
    #58 POW_hungry, Jul 12, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  9. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    POW, Broome (the one in WA) was in the vicinity of that depression, no?
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Within 600km's on varrying models yes. But I don't think your taking into account where the moisture is. It's in range of 400-500 km due south of the Lowest barometic pressure.
     
  11. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Lets not forget...

    'These products are generated automatically by computer simulations of the atmosphere. They have not been quality controlled in any way and should only be used in conjunction with other meteorological guidance.'

    (Such as this forum !!! [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] )
     
    #61 rossi, Jul 12, 2006
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  12. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Waah so i am a product of the atmosphere [​IMG] :p
     
    #62 Stratus, Jul 12, 2006
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  13. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Also another thing (for any new people who may just be starting out), just because the 5400line is not in the 'correct position for snow' this does not mean in any way it will be too warm or the wrong conditions for snow to fall. The 540line is a an easy guide for snowfall. But other things to consider (espcially in this system) are factors including wind direction, upper level movement and temperatures, surface pressure, fetches and trailing systems.

    :cheers:
     
  14. Jayrod

    Jayrod First Runs

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    What are you basing your prediction that the highs will continue to push the lows south? i.e. when you say "and continue to do".

    Agreed this has been the story of the season so far but this usually happens at the start of the season - the pattern is just occuring a little longer this season. The highs will move north as we move into August and the snow will come with it.

    If you are basing what you have said on anything frog has stated, you will find that he doesn't expect this pattern to last.

    The rest of July might tell a similar story, but things will pick up in August.
     
    #64 Jayrod, Jul 12, 2006
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  15. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    ...not forgetting wishful thinking
     
    #65 MisterMxyzptlk, Jul 12, 2006
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  16. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeh and that [​IMG] !
     
    #66 Stratus, Jul 12, 2006
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  17. Darrell W

    Darrell W Hard Yards

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    I think this system will continue to improve as the 500hpa longwave chart is now showing more favourable conditions for SE Aust.
    Blackheath places 70% importance on the positioning of the longwave so I would expect all surface scenarios over the next couple of weeks to improve from their current standings, especially the extended GFS toward the end of July. :thumbs:
     
  18. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Well it sure looks like a normal winter weather pattern has arrived. (with exception of this coming this weekend) I still think a good dump of snow for Perisher, CP and Thredbo this weekend- The rest may struggle a bit but its not like there losing a whole lot of snow any way! So all those doomsdayers season ending rubbish talkers. Give your self an uppercut its JULY the 11th
     
  19. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could be a very interesting weekend. Down low we could get some serios damage, but up high we could get some serious snow, then have it rained on and then snowed on again.

    It will all come down to where the final freeze level will sit.

    Dont foregt that it can snow above 0. The snow is coming out of freezing conditions and then hit the mountain at only 1 or 2 degree's. It will of course start to mealt, but its rate of melting will be dependent upon the ongoing temperature and what it is lying on.
     
  20. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    i'm with you, taipan - it will be very interesting to watch... I'm personally thinking snow levels will hover from 16-1700m (slightly lower than what the current model runs are suggesting). looking at the current 500hpa charts, i reckon the 850 and sl charts will show a little more cold air in the next few runs.

    fingers crossed, but there could be heaps and heaps if the low hits the coastline and tracks more south than east and recirculates just a little, dragging in some nice cold air monday and hitting us with an extra 15cm on top of whatever the saturday night and sunday can deliever.

    Worst case i see is a higher than expected initial freeze level of 19-2000m giving us substantial damage before a repair job on monday and tuesday. I think we will end up with a significant net gain in NSW resorts, while the high Vic resorts should atleast break even.
     
  21. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    NSW BOM now reckons snow down to 1500m on Sunday.
     
  22. Top Rock

    Top Rock Hard Yards

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    GFS, GASP EC etc etc all suggesting a freeze level around 2000m+ for sat night...

    NZs looking good....
     
  23. Shane-wx

    Shane-wx First Runs

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    I dont think so top rock, GFS might be but its been all over the place with those charts as of lately hard to know when its being serious, but yeh could be right, hope not!. My honest opinion on this event is that this low isn't going to affect the alps all that much, maybe 10 to 15mm but its moving way to quick and its hanging around VIC/SA border for the majority of the time (I can't see late rain coming off on friday, maybe towards early sat)
     
  24. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks interesting...

    You can see by this simplified chart for Saturday, that IF the high over WA weakens only slightly or the cold front over Tassie pushed slightly further north, then it would inject colder air into that low over NSW.
    Saturday:
    [​IMG]
    Sunday:
    [​IMG]
    The BOM charts place the low in a similar location.


    GFS looks worse for Fri/Sat because it places the low over SA, then NSW rather than over NSW both days:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #74 Sandy, Jul 13, 2006
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  25. BlueMountains

    BlueMountains First Runs

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    Yes, re the long wave patterning, there does appear to be a gradually amplifying trough moving into the SE but what concerns me is a fairly flat long wave setup after that which could last a week or two. That equates to upper ridging and possibly blocking highs over the south east but we will have to wait and see. Long wave patterns are looking much better over NZ and South America. Have a look at the broad upper troughs (those 540 loops) looping over NZ and South America. Its these areas where cut off cold pools in the upper levels (called short waves) can form near surface frontal patterns and cause great outbreaks.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/latest_D.pl?IDCODE=IDX0517
     
    #75 BlueMountains, Jul 13, 2006
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  26. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes, that high is all important for the cold air feed. Good falls / southerley outbreaks seem to happen when highs retract or park over perth. I also think later sunday could be some cooled se or even s moisture in vic alps.
     
  27. daj

    daj First Runs

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    Latest progs are in strong agreement with the low developing southward on Friday as an upper trough amplified through South Australia. The low should be near Melbourne on Saturday night. This situation will see lots of rain across SA, Vic, and southern NSW and be far too warm for snow (the 850 temperatures are in the range of 4-6C which is 2-4C too warm for snow). This will mean rain from Friday night through to Sunday across the alps.

    The big question then is does the low drift south of Victoria and allow cold air to wrap around its northern side or stay to the north and give rise to a warm moist infeed from the Tasman Sea. The models are split about 50:50 between these scenarios - the UK for example suggests the potential for heavy snow developing Sunday down to about 1100m, while the EC has the snow level at this time around 2000m.

    Fingers crossed the UK is correct...

    David
     
  28. thepass

    thepass First Runs

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    daj (david), where did u get the forecast from the UK from? Can u give us a link?
     
  29. Shane-wx

    Shane-wx First Runs

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    daj, how accurate is this UK model? what are our chances of seeing that come off in your opinion? Looks to me like LAPS is going for the low to drift well south of VIC going by its current paths (SSE) and it should be down south of VIC towards saturday night if it comes off! (LAPS is fairly good this far out)
     
  30. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

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    so with all the pre frontal, nsw resorts (perisher, and top half of thredbo) should get a maxium surplus of about 30-40cm....?
     
  31. Louie

    Louie A Local

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    30-40cm of r%$%n [​IMG] .

    As Daj said, not much if any hope for snow from most models except for his "UK" one. Ifr any snow does fall it will only be on the peaks and very very wet.
     
    #81 Louie, Jul 13, 2006
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  32. optimist

    optimist First Runs

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    The models have been wrong pretty much all season with upgrades and downgrades every second day, this will have alot of rain but wouldn't discount the likelyhood of some decent snow either. one thing for sure it could be a make or break system...
     
  33. Louie

    Louie A Local

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    the models have been prety consitent for the last week about this system. As I have said before, it is entirely tropical in origin and will have no snow. All we can hope for is that the bulk of the moisture misses the alps and/or that the amount of moisture has been over estimated. You can clearly see the tropical origin in the IR sat loop here:

    http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDE00900.loop.shtml

    The followup system may give a dusting on Mon/Tuesday but that is about it.
     
    #83 Louie, Jul 13, 2006
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  34. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    If anything, they have produced consistently inaccurate predictions, even when they concur with each other.

    I'm interested to see the development of the ECL on monday with a well-positioned high.
     
  35. Outlooker

    Outlooker One of Us

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    The moisture may be tropical in origin but its infusion with the cold air from the south will determine whether it will or will not snow. the inland temps of SA are still relatively cold at present (Woomera 9.7 deg) so it does not exactly seem to be bringing tropical temps. The major rain event in July 03 was more northerly and the cold air was not a close as this system is. The cooling effect of land at night will also assist in counteracting any tropical influence.

    We need some hope on this one and although there may be some rain I think NSW will get a net gain of snow.
     
    #85 Outlooker, Jul 13, 2006
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  36. Monkey

    Monkey First Runs

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    Tropical and topical by nature.
     
  37. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

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    Agreed onlooker, Ernabella was 7.1 at 8.30..definitely not tropical
     
  38. cashie

    cashie One of Us

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    How about Vic especially Hotham and falls?
     
  39. cashie

    cashie One of Us

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    From VIC BOM

    Weather Pattern:
    A high pressure system over the bight will move rapidly eastwards to be located
    near Victoria on Thursday and over the Tasman Sea on Friday morning. A low
    pressure system over central Australia will drift slowly southeastwards to
    northwestern Victoria by Friday, before moving to southern Victoria on Sunday.

    Forecast: Thursday
    Isolated snow showers in the south clearing to a fine afternoon. Moderating
    south to southwesterly wind.

    Outlooks:
    Friday Fine day before some rain develops at night in the west.
    Saturday Rain areas.
    Sunday Rain areas contracting eastward. Isolated showers to follow falling
    as snow about the peaks.

    Mt Buller
    Thursday Max 2

    Mt Hotham
    Thursday Max 2
     
  40. Alexia

    Alexia First Runs

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    -5.5 at our home Corryong this am.
     
  41. JG

    JG Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    I am liking the look of this system more each day! Look at the Animated Sat pic Animated Sat Image - WZ These fronts coming up towards WA are tracking to meet the low moving in from the NW. It will hopefully draw the cold air up with it. There will definately be some rain but the upper slopes should get some significant snowfall. The systems coming in from the SW are traditional - however, it is these type of mixed/coliding systems that deliver the highest snowfalls, as they tend to have more moisture that the typical SW fronts

    Of course this is just my un-educated opinion. [​IMG]
     
    #91 JG, Jul 13, 2006
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  42. bogong_flyer

    bogong_flyer First Runs

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    The increasing temps in NSW (Thredbo +.6, Cabramurra +3.5 and Mt Ginnini +3) are showing what is to come.

    They will now be staying above freezing until Sunday - the Vic resorts will soon follow.

    Its just time to grit your teeth and hold your breath - the white stuff will return on Sunday.
     
  43. Monkey

    Monkey First Runs

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    There wont be much left in the system by Sunday. Notice the temps are moving up quickly at Hotham.
    Keeping a eye on this one.
    [​IMG]
     
    #93 Monkey, Jul 13, 2006
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  44. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    it comes down to a few hundred kilometers (AGAIN)...

    if the low tracks further east and crosses the coast closer to sydney there will be less warm rain and more cold snow due to the low sucking up the colder southern stuff

    if the low tracks more sounth and heads through melbourne then most of the air will be drawn off the continent and will be warmer and wetter.

    i feel the strangest sense of deja vu.....
     
  45. Zyka

    Zyka First Runs

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    That's the gut-feeling I'm starting to get aswell. The temps coming in from the AWS which the low is tracking over are definately not tropical, in some cases they are nearing record daytime lows. Melbourne has a forcast of 12c on Saturday. Most interestingly the Cold-front and the moist low seem to be tracking directly towards each other at the same pace - from the satellite pics they really seem headed for collision right over the alps on the weekend. Could this become the provebial 'Perfect (snow) Storm'?
     
    #95 Zyka, Jul 13, 2006
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  46. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    nogaps shows a cutoff 540 pop up on monday, too... is the trough really that warm?

    [​IMG]

    positioning doesn't really seem ideal, but still - it is cold....
     
    #96 churchy, Jul 13, 2006
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  47. Zyka

    Zyka First Runs

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    Look at Ceduna!
    http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS65112/IDS65112.94653.shtml
    Temp is plummeting as the low crosses - 6.9c at 11:30 (compared to 13.3c at the same time 24hrs before) - This thing may be tropical in moisture levels but not in temps.
     
    #97 Zyka, Jul 13, 2006
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  48. Shane-wx

    Shane-wx First Runs

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    Interesting...

    Churchy regarding your comment of wanting the low to past over sydney, IMO that is a bad thing, if it passes up there we will not get the wrapping of the cold air we need for snow over the weekend. If the low moves down over adelaide then over the melbourne then offshore thats ideal (Which majority of models are forecasting), with the low most likely wrapping the cold air and moisture around over the alps, coniditions could become ideal.

    But yeh as i have said earlier by the looks of LAPS its seems as though ALPS are going to miss out on the majority of the r**n. with the low going west of them then offshore down south of VIC. We'll see what happens. Hopefully they miss out on the R$%#N :p

    P.S wow Ceduna obs look very encouraging

    Shane
     
  49. carto

    carto First Runs

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    Location:
    Melbourne
    The BOM forecast for Melb for Sat/Sun is :

    Saturday Rain periods. Min 6 Max 12
    Sunday Rain at times. Min 7 Max 13

    I've got no real idea about correctly reading all the models, but I have to say that I can't remember the last time it was 12 and raining in Melb and not snowing up the top.
     
  50. Zyka

    Zyka First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2006
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    Location:
    Melbourne
    Is our nemesis is morphing into a savoir? - The more I look the better it seems. Adelaide has a forecast max of 10c tomorrow - pity there is no webcam on top of Mt Lofty.