1. There's more to this forum than meets the eye!

    We have a vibrant community here conversing about all sorts of non-snow topics such as music, sport, politics and technology. Simply register to reveal all our Apr├Ęs topics.

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

July 15th-19th. (predictions and snowfall discussion)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by thepass, Jul 12, 2006.

  1. loc

    loc Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2006
    Messages:
    191
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    adelaide
    adelaide is currently bloody cold - i can tell u that by the fact my fingers are hurting to type and i am rugged up like a sherpa
    (something i rarely do as i usually study in a tshirt and trackies for comfort)
     
  2. Shane-wx

    Shane-wx First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2006
    Messages:
    87
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Central Coast of NSW, Australia
    Wow 10c max in adelaide is rather impressive, with 'steady rain'. Mt lofty would well score something, 4c at the moment and should cool alot tomorrow with the cloud and rain going by obs around SA atm. dw Zyka it has an AWS that will give us a decent indication of what action takes place up there, lets hope its the magic white stuff [​IMG] (I'am sure somewhere across the flinders may)
     
    #102 Shane-wx, Jul 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  3. Zyka

    Zyka First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2006
    Messages:
    234
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I recall in the days before the Net & ski.com.au my sure-fire indication that good snow was coming was hearing that a 'Sheep Graziers' alert had been issued for Victoria - But don't recall many times that one was also issued for S.A ---- Quietly getting rather excited!

    IDS20242
    AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT - BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
    SOUTH AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

    ADVICE TO SHEEP GRAZIERS
    Issued at 12:10 pm on Thursday, 13 July 2006

    Sheep Graziers are advised that cold, wet and windy conditions in the Northwest
    Pastoral Districts and the West Coast district today, will extend to remaining
    districts apart from the Lower South East district on Friday. These conditions
    are forecast to bring a serious risk of sheep or lamb losses.
     
  4. Outlooker

    Outlooker One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2003
    Messages:
    993
    Likes Received:
    261
    Location:
    Northern Beaches, Sydney
    Adelaide is 12.6 at 12.00pm. Ceduna is 7.1 deg with 5.4mm of Precip at 12.30. Broken Hill is 11.4 at 14.00 which 48 hours ago was 18.

    With Adelaide forcasting a top of 10 tomorrow and the cooler temps in towns north there sure must be allot of cold air around. All we need is the cold air stream from the front below WA to meet this moisture but I think it looks like lining up nicely (not that I have seen a system like this before).

    As for temps creeping up, it is daytime and I would say they are not above average.
     
  5. SNOWBOBO

    SNOWBOBO First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2003
    Messages:
    78
    Likes Received:
    0
    I'm with you Zyka. I must confess also that "12 degree melb temps" will almost certainly stir the juices. only in this case the weathers tracking in from the north without a southerly influence.

    Heres hoping [​IMG]
     
    #105 SNOWBOBO, Jul 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  6. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2002
    Messages:
    65,455
    Likes Received:
    44,204
    Location:
    Mountains
    This is one hell of a weird set of winter maps.
    BOM
     
    #106 dawooduck, Jul 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  7. longinforearly90s

    longinforearly90s First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2006
    Messages:
    104
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    queanbeyan
    if you look at a satellite pic of just SA at the moment the whole state is covered by the cloud, including a large part which is now also over the ocean in the bight. there is also strong wind warnings current for SA. Hopefully alot of cold air is now picked up from the bight region on its way to us. I've never seen the whole of SA covered in cloud like this.
     
  8. Zyka

    Zyka First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2006
    Messages:
    234
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    It's actually a remarkable system. Remember how it started? It was a cold pool that broke off a front approaching WA, went north of Perth, headed up to the Kimberley's, took a big drink of water from an in-feed from the Indian Ocean (without heating up much, if any), and is now headed south east straight for the ski fields- Essentially it's almost a cold-front that has gone over the top of the High in the Bight instead of sliding under it to NZ - This could be one we all remember for quite a while.
     
    #108 Zyka, Jul 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  9. ArchBishop Desmond Tutu

    ArchBishop Desmond Tutu First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2006
    Messages:
    2
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    2260
    Im optimistic, i just had a quick word to god at a cardinals meeting and he says we will be okay, not too sure about the mexicans....
     
  10. FatBob

    FatBob Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 28, 2001
    Messages:
    437
    Likes Received:
    26
    Location:
    Canberra
    Great description for us weather nobs.

    Frog is still saying snow and from years of watching his preditions, especially 3 days out, I reckon this is gunna dump......on NSW......up high.... on Sunday [​IMG]
     
    #110 FatBob, Jul 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  11. Zyka

    Zyka First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2006
    Messages:
    234
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    If the temp trends continue as seem to be going, It's gunna dump......all weekend.....down low....everywhere
     
    #111 Zyka, Jul 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  12. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    67,815
    Likes Received:
    21,460
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    It's an interesting system!!!!

    Let's look at the synoptic charts since the last system which brought cold air an lots of speckled cloud.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    While we were all watching the system over in the SE, the winds were carrying lots of cold air right across WA.
    Look at the following at 12 hour intervals (except the last)
    Cold speckled cloud streaming from the Bight right across WA:
    [​IMG]

    More speckle pushing from SE across to the Indian Ocean. You can see the jet stream feed back off the Indian ocean onto central Australia:
    [​IMG]

    Look how far the speckled cloud has pushed off WA. See how far north that's pushed!!!!!! The Jetstream cloud is starting to form & thicken on WA/SA border:
    [​IMG]

    Now the speckle off WA is starting to be drawn back into WA in into the cloud mass on WA/SA border:

    [​IMG]

    The cloud mass is getting VERY thick and has crossed the coast in SA. The cold front of WA is within a few hundred km of the cloud mass.
    [​IMG]
     
    #112 Sandy, Jul 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  13. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2002
    Messages:
    65,455
    Likes Received:
    44,204
    Location:
    Mountains
    Great presentation Sandy. I have been watching this on unfold and IMHO it is something very different for this time of year. I have no idea what will happen when it hits the mountains BUT it may well be a godsend for the many parched areas of NSW and the coastal dams.

    Fingers crossed it is -0.5 at 1500m when it does broach the main range barrier.
     
  14. white_beanie

    white_beanie Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2003
    Messages:
    18,810
    Likes Received:
    329
    Location:
    Sydney
    Thanks Zyka and Sandy!!
     
  15. DeesOnSkis

    DeesOnSkis One of Us

    Joined:
    May 27, 2004
    Messages:
    1,256
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Giles (WA) average max temp for July - 19.9c
    Giles (WA) max temp yesterday - 9.2c

    Eucla (WA) average max temp for July - 18.0c
    Eucla (WA) max temp today - 10.6c

    Ernabella (SA) average max temp for July - 17.8c
    Ernabella (SA) max temp today - 8.4c

    Ceduna (SA) average max temp for July - 16.9c
    Ceduna (SA) temp at 2pm today 7.1c

    It's clearly resulting in very cool temperatures, not warmer temperatures. Is there any reason why that should change between Adelaide and the Alps?
     
  16. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2002
    Messages:
    27,549
    Likes Received:
    12,955
    Nice post Sandy!
    pictures paint a thousand words.
    If I can put my optimistic hat on for a moment.
    This is in no way a traditional system.
    The weather boffins can correct me, but I would reckon the models(GASP,LAPS,GFS etc) are based on typical June/July/August systems ie WA to Vic with the lows driving slightly North East on the SE corner of Australia.
    This event would be thrown out of any self respecting model simply because of its uniqueness.
    As such i think we just have to sit down buckle up and enjoy the ride whichever way it goes.
    Don't you just love weather!! [​IMG]
     
    #116 MisterMxyzptlk, Jul 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  17. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2002
    Messages:
    65,455
    Likes Received:
    44,204
    Location:
    Mountains
    I too am a fan of the old sheep graziers alert.

    IDN29000
    NSW Sheep Graziers Warning
    Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
    New South Wales
    Issued at 1459 on Thursday the 13th of July 2006
    Sheep graziers are advised of cool windy and wet weather developing from the
    west in the following districts on Friday.

    Upper and Lower Western,
    Riverina,
    Central West Plains.

    These conditions likely to extend to the Western Slopes and Tablelands early
    Saturday.
     
  18. dilligaf

    dilligaf First Runs

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2005
    Messages:
    3,247
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    QLD
    Anyone working up there make sure you get monday and tuesday off my novice weather thinking is telling me
     
  19. Louie

    Louie A Local

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 1999
    Messages:
    9,118
    Likes Received:
    1,536
    Location:
    NSW
    GASP and GFS picked this scenario from last monday. They have both been reasonably accurate for this one - evenif they over estimated the moisture. Here is the GASP as of last Monday for Saturday:

    [​IMG]


    here is GASPs latest prediction (will update):

    [​IMG]


    Hasn't changed much besides the redcution in moisture and pushing the low a little further south.
     
    #119 Louie, Jul 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  20. Monkey

    Monkey First Runs

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2001
    Messages:
    1,688
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Mt Loch Ski Resort
    With this system it is irrelevant how cold Adelaide is and speckle clouds don't produce much snow, cold yes, but tend to be the tale end of anything worthwhile.
    BTW bit tired of the "positive spin quote " but anyway!
     
  21. bogong_flyer

    bogong_flyer First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2000
    Messages:
    741
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Canberra
    Whilst it is nice to watch the movement of cold air and to speculate on what might happen if that air gets to the Alps, you need to keep your eye on the whole picture. In the sat pics that Sandy has posted have a look at the blob of cloud over Qld. Note it has come from warm tropical waters and look where it is heading - yes to the Alps.

    Lows suck in different air from different directions which is why their exact postion is so important. A slightly different track can mean a huge difference in the weather that is experienced in our vicinity. These two contrasting airmasses will converge and meet near the centre of the low.

    Most models show the low progressing steadily SE and passing over Vic. This means we will experience both air masses. We will get the SA air on Sunday BUT we will experience the Qld air first (and you know what that means).

    I suspect that the Alps may not see this system at its most intense - that is we probably won't see anywhere near as much rain as will fall in inland SA/NSW and Vic but then again we probably won't see that much snow either. The end result of this system may actually be fairly neutral in terms of snow on the ground.
     
    #121 bogong_flyer, Jul 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  22. queenslander

    queenslander First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2003
    Messages:
    22
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Stanthorpe, Queensland
    guys is the worst case scenario a total washout or are we certain that we will get some snow on sunday/monday. It seems that saturday is going to be very 50/50 but if it turns out to be rain under 1900m do you think we will have a net gain of snow by tuesday???
     
  23. Cuppa

    Cuppa A Local

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2000
    Messages:
    8,126
    Likes Received:
    710
    BOM is getting a bit more bullish about the VIC Alpine. I just hope the freezing level drops a bit.

     
    #123 Cuppa, Jul 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  24. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2002
    Messages:
    65,455
    Likes Received:
    44,204
    Location:
    Mountains
    Make loose plans to head to the hills on Sunday night for 3 days would be my advice.
     
  25. Zyka

    Zyka First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2006
    Messages:
    234
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Yes, but where is it's moisture?
    look at this map of QLD http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/qld/qld-observations-map.shtml
    Click on any station where the central mass of cloud is located - No precipitation.
    Additionally, from the Sat pics, the QLD stuff appears to be heading more towards Syndey and then out to the Tasman.
     
    #125 Zyka, Jul 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  26. cashie

    cashie One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2004
    Messages:
    1,393
    Likes Received:
    14
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Zyka, the best I could find was 8mm, you could be onto something :thumbs:

    Ontop of that there is a place in SA that has recoreded 28mm in the past 24hrs with temps no higher than 10 degrees when the rain started
     
  27. bogong_flyer

    bogong_flyer First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2000
    Messages:
    741
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Canberra
    The low is still to the west of the WA/SA border (not far from the border with the NT as well). The low is in the process of deepening in the upper levels - so that Qld cloud will gradually start to curve in a more southerly direction.

    Just because there isn't rain doesn't mean that it has no moisture. In any case the real moisture will stream southwards tomorrow.

    I don't wish to upset people, I am just trying to be realistic with what is ahead. I will say however that the latest GFS while delaying the cold air until Sunday afternoon is looking much better for a few days of light snow-moderate snowfall once it does arrive. That is 3 X falls of 5-15cm could produce quite a worthwhile outcome.
     
    #127 bogong_flyer, Jul 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  28. longinforearly90s

    longinforearly90s First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2006
    Messages:
    104
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    queanbeyan
    two days ago adelaide had a forecast top of 14 for friday, now its 10! with the rain. the cloud has dropped alot lower and mixed with cold air from the bight.
     
  29. SkiTiger

    SkiTiger First Runs

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2006
    Messages:
    116
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Peoples this is looking better and better! Rain then about 40cm's over three days suits me just fine. (snow estimation taken from bogong_flyer)

    SkiTiger
     
  30. Shane-wx

    Shane-wx First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2006
    Messages:
    87
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Central Coast of NSW, Australia
    Yeh looks ok! I'am heading up this sunday, will arrive at jindy around 6.30pm and snowboarding from mon to wed...should be good fun with this fresh powder expected!!! (Never snowboarded on fresh powder before, would love to experience it)
     
  31. cashie

    cashie One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2004
    Messages:
    1,393
    Likes Received:
    14
    Location:
    Melbourne
    If your going to quote Bogong_flyer use all the facts

    Rain then snow ranging from 15 - 45cm in a three day period
     
  32. Mattus

    Mattus First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2002
    Messages:
    671
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Wollongong
    Perisher should experience minimal snow loss from the rain, going by current predictions of snow level being at 1700ms.

    So they may need to pump out that snow on the lower parts of the resort to keep it from being too much of a loss, but from 1700ms onwards, it looks good to me [​IMG]
     
    #132 Mattus, Jul 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  33. SkiTiger

    SkiTiger First Runs

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2006
    Messages:
    116
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Brisbane
    i actually did say that there would be rain... jeus.
     
  34. cashie

    cashie One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2004
    Messages:
    1,393
    Likes Received:
    14
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Bit optimistic stating it would be about 40 cm :p :fishing:
     
  35. SkiTiger

    SkiTiger First Runs

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2006
    Messages:
    116
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Brisbane
    yea i suppose, maybe 20cm?
    lol watever!
     
  36. SNOWBOBO

    SNOWBOBO First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2003
    Messages:
    78
    Likes Received:
    0
    BOM afternoon update.

    Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
    Victoria
    Melbourne Forecast
    Issued at 4:15 pm EST on Thursday 13 July 2006
    Warning Summary
    Nil.
    Forecast for Thursday evening
    A local shower or two clearing. Cloud clearing. Light wind.
    Precis: Becoming fine.
    Forecast for Friday
    Local morning fog then a fine although cloudy day with a moderate northeast to
    northerly wind.
    Precis: Fine.
    City: Min 5 Max 13
    Laverton: Min 4 Max 12 Yarra Glen: Min 2 Max 13
    Tullamarine: Min 3 Max 13 Mt Dandenong: Min 3 Max 7
    Watsonia: Min 4 Max 13 Scoresby: Min 3 Max 13
    Frankston: Min 4 Max 13 Geelong: Min 4 Max 13
    UV Index: 1-2 [low]
    Saturday Rain periods. Min 7 Max 12
    Sunday Rain at times. Min 7 Max 13
    Monday Showers. Min 9 Max 13
    Tuesday Few showers. Min 8 Max 13
    Wednesday Clearing. Min 6 Max 13
    Thursday Fine. Min 5 Max 14
    The next routine forecast will be issued at 10:50 pm EST Thursday.
     
  37. SkiTiger

    SkiTiger First Runs

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2006
    Messages:
    116
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Brisbane
    can any conclusions be drwn for that BOM prediction for melbourne?
     
  38. Alex.C

    Alex.C One of Us

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2003
    Messages:
    3,562
    Likes Received:
    104
    Location:
    Canmore
    Well a Max in Melbourne of 13-14 generally means subzero temperatures at the resort level 1500-1600+ or so. So it could be good news. But remember this is an odd system so all generalities are off.
     
  39. SNOWBOBO

    SNOWBOBO First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2003
    Messages:
    78
    Likes Received:
    0
    Skitiger

    for what its worth expected temps for the next four days read

    friday 14
    sat 12
    sun 13
    mond 14

    Slight improvement for frid and mond at least.
     
  40. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 18, 2004
    Messages:
    180
    Likes Received:
    83
    Thredbo is -.6...... [​IMG]
     
    #140 viswin, Jul 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  41. McNads

    McNads One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2002
    Messages:
    1,272
    Likes Received:
    71
    Location:
    Beaudesert, QLD
    According to the Bureau's top station it was 1.5 degrees at 4pm. Where have you got -.6 from?

    Bogong, it's great to have you around and forecasting so much this year. Thanks.
     
  42. Mattus

    Mattus First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2002
    Messages:
    671
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Wollongong
    #142 Mattus, Jul 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  43. cashie

    cashie One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2004
    Messages:
    1,393
    Likes Received:
    14
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Bureau are saying rain should hit melbourne around midnight friday if not in the early hours of saturday, this im assuming is the colder front, therefore wont the this reach the alps by lunchtime Saturday at the latest? (this is a question not a statement, if someone who knows what there talking about a.k.a Bogong i would greatly appreciate it)
     
  44. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2013
    Messages:
    0
    Likes Received:
    5
    That would be the rain band. The cooler air should follow into Sunday. The amount of rain is a bit of a worry - for me anyway.
     
  45. bogong_flyer

    bogong_flyer First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2000
    Messages:
    741
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Canberra
    Yep the rain band shoud hit the Alps around the same time (ie through Friday night).

    Nice to see Thredbo temp dropping - it looks like it is catching the tail end of the very cold air that has moved into the Tasman. The real warming will take place later tomorrow ahead of the low.

    :cheers: McNADS - I like to drop in here when I can and add to the enthusiastic mix that is this forum.
     
  46. cashie

    cashie One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2004
    Messages:
    1,393
    Likes Received:
    14
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Bogong, will the cold air hit with the rain band? as we have seen when the rain starts falling temp have dropped quickly, therefore wont there minimal pre-frontal?
     
  47. BH

    BH One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2006
    Messages:
    1,092
    Likes Received:
    37
    Now everyone is worried by the tropical stuff coming from QLD (Bloody Queenslanders!!!). My question is why does the tropical stuff warm the Alps why cant the tropical stuff get cooled by the Alps??? [​IMG]

    PS- I STILL think it will bucket down with snow saturday (NSW resorts)

    10c and rain in Adelaide = SNOW always!! [​IMG]
     
    #147 BH, Jul 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  48. Zyka

    Zyka First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2006
    Messages:
    234
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    This thing could go any-which-way, it's unlike any winter system I can recall. We have three significant systems in play, An unusual rain-bearing low (colder than anyone expected) heading SE, a slightly warmer system from the tropics possibly heading South and a Cold front heading NE - ALL set to meet over the Alps some time on Saturday. How they are going to interact still seems to be pure guess-work - even from the seasoned experts of the forum. Personally, I keep seeing flashes from that George Clooney movie - Might be bad to be stuck on a Sailfish boat, but could be epic up on the mountains.
     
  49. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2013
    Messages:
    0
    Likes Received:
    5
    You're obviously from Melbourne, cashie and used to your normal winter type embedded fronts that bring rain to Melbourne and snow to the alps. This ain't one of them. This is a low coming from west to east over land - not your average winter system.
     
  50. bogong_flyer

    bogong_flyer First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2000
    Messages:
    741
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Canberra
    It might become cold at lower elevations when it starts to rain. The problem though is that warm air is being drawm in at higher levels before the low moves across. So while it may be only 10 or even less in Melbourne when it rains, because there will be warmer air aloft, the temperature won't cool at the rate it normally does. At least for Saturday, freezing levels will be above 2,000m.

    Remember the low is currently over in the west and is lying over very cold air that moved over there earlier this week (that was the cold air that we thought we might have seen over give good snowfalls to the Alps a week ago). As the low moves SE it is going to suck in more warm tropical air in the upper levels from Qld. That is what we will get before the cold air arrives.

    Remember the upper atmosphere is what counts for snow in the Alps. It is possible that the warm air that gets sucked into the low may actually not reach the surface - this is called an occlusion and is common in Europe. So just because it is cold at the surface - don't assume it will be higher up.