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July 15th-19th. (predictions and snowfall discussion)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by thepass, Jul 12, 2006.

  1. Grog

    Grog First Runs

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    Yeah but GFS suggests a much higher snow level, and while some have called for it to be lower, others have indicated it will be solid rain to high levels such as 2000m and above before snow begins into Sunday and continuing into Monday.

    Based on other posts on the upper atmospheric conditions Saturday does not seem too promising, I am simply asking what scenario is likely to bring the snow levels that the BOM have indicated for NSW.
     
  2. SkiTiger

    SkiTiger First Runs

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    what is the expected snow level for Vic resorts anyone?

    SkiTiger
     
  3. DeesOnSkis

    DeesOnSkis One of Us

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    That's part of the question, the answer to which is
    no-one will know for sure 'til it hits. The whole
    of it is "what is the expected snow level for the
    Alps?". As the weather doesn't tend to care about
    where the border between NSW and VIC is.
     
    #203 DeesOnSkis, Jul 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  4. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Don't think Sandy was saying it would end up following the red line, it was a what if ??
     
    #204 skiflat, Jul 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  5. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I didn't predict anything.....

    I've plotted the direction it IS travelling, and I've indicated the direction it's expected to travel...

    You make up your own mind.
     
    #205 Sandy, Jul 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  6. SkiTiger

    SkiTiger First Runs

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    hmmmm this is very interesting.
     
  7. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    Err, At what point in time?

    As far as I can see the freeze level looks to be well above the peaks on Saturday at the more northern resorts (Hotham, Falls, Thredbo). Getting to around 1800m Sunday afternoon sometime when you might in turn expect a snow level to around 1600m.

    Looks like an almost complete washout though for the likes of Buller and particularly Baw Baw though... [​IMG]
     
    #207 Djon, Jul 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  8. Snowies

    Snowies One of Us

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    The snow levels vary between 1600m-2000m for much of the weekend and it largely depends which model you opt to believe or trust.

    Lately I feel that GFS has been going ok with respect to temperatures and thickness and is generally reliable.

    For the Vic resorts I think the snow level will be above the summit of Falls Creek until very late Sunday night.

    There maybe some sleet/snow during sat around the peak, but GFS has some warmer air moving in during Sat night pushing the snow level well above the peak before cooling again Sun night and turning to snow.

    Certinaly enough moisture and instability for some moderate falls Sun night through to early Tuesday afternoon. There after the moisture really drys up and further precip is highly unlikely.

    Snow Prediction: Probably 10-15cm of Snow after some pretty solid rain. Which should leave the higher Vic resorts at status quo.
     
  9. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is just the sort of crap you normally post Monkey....

    You say "Yeah but its not going to follow the red arrow." You don't offer any reasonable reasoning, logic or facts to back up your unsupported assertions....

    Many people have said it will rain Fri/Sat and most of Sunday, and the arguments are reasonable and logical. Some have said more out of hope than logic that it will snow on those days.

    On the balance of things, I think it will probably rain Fri/Sat and most of Sunday.... But any projections and predictions are based on what meteorologists THINK will happen.....

    The low is moving along the red line. Whether it continues to do so is another question, and it's there for discussion.

    BTW, it's not a "front" it is a "trough".
     
    #209 Sandy, Jul 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  10. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    care to update that red arrow in the morning Sandy please ? [​IMG]
     
    #210 The Plowking, Jul 13, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  11. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    OK. It will probably curl away to the east like expected, but who knows.... [​IMG]

    BTW, since drawing those arrows in, judging from the satellite loop, rather than moving SSE, the centre of the low is travelling almost due south!!!!

    We'll see what it does by morning. [​IMG]
     
    #211 Sandy, Jul 13, 2006
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  12. DeesOnSkis

    DeesOnSkis One of Us

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    An amateur's musings, but is it possible the front in the Bight will force that air in a more east or, more likely, south easterly direction. Similarly, the warmer cloud mass from Queensland looks to be destined for Sydney and the Tasman. If the danger is
    partly from the Queensland air reaching the
    mountains, as Bogong_Flyer suggested, then it would
    seem to my amateur reasoning that it will affect the more northeastern resorts.
     
  13. Jeffo

    Jeffo Hard Yards

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    Sandy- I was under the impression that we were hoping that the trough currently in SA got to the alps asap, reducing the amount of tropical moisture aka r**n currently heading down from qld?
     
  14. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well, let's say for argument's sake the low does keep heading south and hooks up with the front currently south of Perth(but in the Bight by tomorrow. This would inject cold air into the system, and make snow a bit more likely once it hits the SE corner.
     
  15. Alex.C

    Alex.C One of Us

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    The current low level winds clearly show the warm air from being sucked down from QLD/NT to where they will eventually hit the alps with very little movement north from the cold southern air (ignoring the last system in the SE):

    [​IMG]

    However looking at the mid (upper?) level shows air from that region being pushed out to the East and a (relatively) stronger fetch of cold air from the south.

    [​IMG]

    Looks to me like we're depending on the upper level to have more effect and mix with lower levels so that it will be cold enough otherwise it will be lots of r**n.
     
    #215 Alex.C, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  16. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    not looking that good is it??

    my fingers are crossed for the cold southerly feed to catch up the that big tropical-fed rain mass currently over SA...now THAT would be nice!!

    (as per SIC at Buller in 2003 i think - we got something like 60cm+ if i remember correctly)

    schweeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!
     
  17. Wodonga Josh

    Wodonga Josh Part of the Furniture

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    Freezing here today and tonight, not that it necesserily counts
     
  18. bawbawbel

    bawbawbel Easi Ski..... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Saved by the double front, Woggybot! No patch of high pressure can resist such teamwork. Watch them merge near Adelaide to create an iresistable force, 60 centibldymeters are in the offing!
    [​IMG]
     
  19. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not saved yet, try to keep things factual.
     
    #219 Sandy, Jul 14, 2006
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  20. Alexia

    Alexia First Runs

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    -6 here in Corryong again today
     
  21. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    I am looking at the current sat loop and what I am witnessing(correct me if I'm wrong)- is a spinning cloud mass the centre of which appears to be a bit lower than the models. Is the centre of the cloud mass the approximate position of the Low at present?

    There is also a stream of what looks like upper level cold air coming out of the south and it looks like it is going to join up with the fringe of the spinning mass of low cloud which I assume is the edge of the low.

    Are my observations right?
     
  22. Dave Clark

    Dave Clark One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    just trying to understand things here, but why would the SW (buller / baw baw / lake mtn) resorts be the worst off if the warm moist air is going to be sucked down from what looks like the NE?
     
  23. Zyka

    Zyka First Runs

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    The system is now crossing Woomera. 9mm already, wind increasing and a very impressive radar image

    http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS65112/IDS65112.94659.shtml

    As with Ernabella (where the AWS got vaporised by the storm last night?) the temp is dropping rapidly, but at Woomera we have the Aerological Diagrams and those still look really crap for 850hpa.

    I think the most interesting readings will be comparisons between Adelaide AWS & Mt Lofty AWS (730m) later in the day - I think this will verify what this system does interacting with elevation. If Adelaide is around 10c and Mt Lofty is only a few degrees cooler then we can certainly start play the Death March for the skifields - but if Mt Lofty manages to get close to Zero then hope is alive - and if by miracle it actually snows there I'll be getting very excited

    MT LOFTY: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS65112/IDS65112.95678.shtml

    ADELAIDE: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS65112/IDS65112.94675.shtml
     
    #223 Zyka, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  24. trent78

    trent78 First Runs

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    Just guessing Dave, altitude of the mountains.

    So you going to put the Buller tram as a rail like the Falls creek bus? Trams are heaps cooler than bus'.
     
  25. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    hey weather gurus, why are the temps at Buller and Falls reading as 3.7 & 3.9C respectively, yet Hotham is still reading -2.2C [​IMG]
     
    #225 luvthabumps, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  26. Outlooker

    Outlooker One of Us

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    From the Woomera Radar loop this low looks to be now tracking SW. At least it should start getting some colder air from the front below WA /SA so here is hoping.
     
  27. Zyka

    Zyka First Runs

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    I was wondering that myself - very weird - faulty AWS at Hotham?
     
    #227 Zyka, Jul 14, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  28. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

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    OK, rain is coming, everybody agree now on that. But the big million dollars question is how much ? Bom is forecasting light rain for 2night and rain periods tomorrow,so it might not be so bad after all.