July 15th-19th. (predictions and snowfall discussion)

Grog

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Yeah but GFS suggests a much higher snow level, and while some have called for it to be lower, others have indicated it will be solid rain to high levels such as 2000m and above before snow begins into Sunday and continuing into Monday.

Based on other posts on the upper atmospheric conditions Saturday does not seem too promising, I am simply asking what scenario is likely to bring the snow levels that the BOM have indicated for NSW.
 
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DeesOnSkis

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May 27, 2004
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SkiTiger said:
what is the expected snow level for Vic resorts anyone?

SkiTiger
That's part of the question, the answer to which is
no-one will know for sure 'til it hits. The whole
of it is "what is the expected snow level for the
Alps?". As the weather doesn't tend to care about
where the border between NSW and VIC is.
 
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skiflat

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Aug 10, 1999
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blue_neon said:
I dont see why the low would go in the way you are predicting it to end up Sandy?
Don't think Sandy was saying it would end up following the red line, it was a what if ??
 
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Sandy

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blue_neon said:
I dont see why the low would go in the way you are predicting it to end up Sandy?
I didn't predict anything.....

I've plotted the direction it IS travelling, and I've indicated the direction it's expected to travel...

You make up your own mind.
 
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Djon

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SkiTiger said:
what is the expected snow level for Vic resorts anyone?

SkiTiger
Err, At what point in time?

As far as I can see the freeze level looks to be well above the peaks on Saturday at the more northern resorts (Hotham, Falls, Thredbo). Getting to around 1800m Sunday afternoon sometime when you might in turn expect a snow level to around 1600m.

Looks like an almost complete washout though for the likes of Buller and particularly Baw Baw though...
frown.gif
 
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Snowies

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The snow levels vary between 1600m-2000m for much of the weekend and it largely depends which model you opt to believe or trust.

Lately I feel that GFS has been going ok with respect to temperatures and thickness and is generally reliable.

For the Vic resorts I think the snow level will be above the summit of Falls Creek until very late Sunday night.

There maybe some sleet/snow during sat around the peak, but GFS has some warmer air moving in during Sat night pushing the snow level well above the peak before cooling again Sun night and turning to snow.

Certinaly enough moisture and instability for some moderate falls Sun night through to early Tuesday afternoon. There after the moisture really drys up and further precip is highly unlikely.

Snow Prediction: Probably 10-15cm of Snow after some pretty solid rain. Which should leave the higher Vic resorts at status quo.
 

Sandy

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Monkey said:
Yeah but its not going to follow the red arrow. Great hypothetical but the reality is that come Sunday we will have sore heads from this most peculiar front.
I think we will see more rain on Sunday than most are expecting. The freeze levels are way to high to be any benefit to Vic and marginal to NSW.
This is just the sort of crap you normally post Monkey....

You say "Yeah but its not going to follow the red arrow." You don't offer any reasonable reasoning, logic or facts to back up your unsupported assertions....

Many people have said it will rain Fri/Sat and most of Sunday, and the arguments are reasonable and logical. Some have said more out of hope than logic that it will snow on those days.

On the balance of things, I think it will probably rain Fri/Sat and most of Sunday.... But any projections and predictions are based on what meteorologists THINK will happen.....

The low is moving along the red line. Whether it continues to do so is another question, and it's there for discussion.

BTW, it's not a "front" it is a "trough".
 
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Sandy

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The Plowking said:
care to update that red arrow in the morning Sandy please ?
smile.gif
OK. It will probably curl away to the east like expected, but who knows....
wink.gif


BTW, since drawing those arrows in, judging from the satellite loop, rather than moving SSE, the centre of the low is travelling almost due south!!!!

We'll see what it does by morning.
laugh.gif
 
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DeesOnSkis

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An amateur's musings, but is it possible the front in the Bight will force that air in a more east or, more likely, south easterly direction. Similarly, the warmer cloud mass from Queensland looks to be destined for Sydney and the Tasman. If the danger is
partly from the Queensland air reaching the
mountains, as Bogong_Flyer suggested, then it would
seem to my amateur reasoning that it will affect the more northeastern resorts.
 

Jeffo

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Sandy- I was under the impression that we were hoping that the trough currently in SA got to the alps asap, reducing the amount of tropical moisture aka r**n currently heading down from qld?
 

Sandy

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Well, let's say for argument's sake the low does keep heading south and hooks up with the front currently south of Perth(but in the Bight by tomorrow. This would inject cold air into the system, and make snow a bit more likely once it hits the SE corner.
 

Alex.C

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The current low level winds clearly show the warm air from being sucked down from QLD/NT to where they will eventually hit the alps with very little movement north from the cold southern air (ignoring the last system in the SE):

low-winds.png


However looking at the mid (upper?) level shows air from that region being pushed out to the East and a (relatively) stronger fetch of cold air from the south.

mid-winds.png


Looks to me like we're depending on the upper level to have more effect and mix with lower levels so that it will be cold enough otherwise it will be lots of r**n.
 
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woggybot

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not looking that good is it??

my fingers are crossed for the cold southerly feed to catch up the that big tropical-fed rain mass currently over SA...now THAT would be nice!!

(as per SIC at Buller in 2003 i think - we got something like 60cm+ if i remember correctly)

schweeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!
 

bawbawbel

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Jun 22, 2000
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Saved by the double front, Woggybot! No patch of high pressure can resist such teamwork. Watch them merge near Adelaide to create an iresistable force, 60 centibldymeters are in the offing!
synoptic.shtml
 

Sandy

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bawbawbel said:
Saved by the double front, Woggybot! No patch of high pressure can resist such teamwork. Watch them merge near Adelaide to create an iresistable force, 60 centibldymeters are in the offing!
synoptic.shtml
Not saved yet, try to keep things factual.
 
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rossi

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I am looking at the current sat loop and what I am witnessing(correct me if I'm wrong)- is a spinning cloud mass the centre of which appears to be a bit lower than the models. Is the centre of the cloud mass the approximate position of the Low at present?

There is also a stream of what looks like upper level cold air coming out of the south and it looks like it is going to join up with the fringe of the spinning mass of low cloud which I assume is the edge of the low.

Are my observations right?
 

Dave Clark

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just trying to understand things here, but why would the SW (buller / baw baw / lake mtn) resorts be the worst off if the warm moist air is going to be sucked down from what looks like the NE?
 

Zyka

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The system is now crossing Woomera. 9mm already, wind increasing and a very impressive radar image

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS65112/IDS65112.94659.shtml

As with Ernabella (where the AWS got vaporised by the storm last night?) the temp is dropping rapidly, but at Woomera we have the Aerological Diagrams and those still look really crap for 850hpa.

I think the most interesting readings will be comparisons between Adelaide AWS & Mt Lofty AWS (730m) later in the day - I think this will verify what this system does interacting with elevation. If Adelaide is around 10c and Mt Lofty is only a few degrees cooler then we can certainly start play the Death March for the skifields - but if Mt Lofty manages to get close to Zero then hope is alive - and if by miracle it actually snows there I'll be getting very excited

MT LOFTY: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS65112/IDS65112.95678.shtml

ADELAIDE: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS65112/IDS65112.94675.shtml
 
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trent78

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Jul 14, 2003
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Just guessing Dave, altitude of the mountains.

So you going to put the Buller tram as a rail like the Falls creek bus? Trams are heaps cooler than bus'.
 

Zyka

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luvthabumps said:
hey weather gurus, why are the temps at Buller and Falls reading as 3.7 & 3.9C respectively, yet Hotham is still reading -2.2C
confused.gif
I was wondering that myself - very weird - faulty AWS at Hotham?
 
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viswin

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May 18, 2004
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OK, rain is coming, everybody agree now on that. But the big million dollars question is how much ? Bom is forecasting light rain for 2night and rain periods tomorrow,so it might not be so bad after all.
 
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