10 pages on the other thread makes my eyes go cross eyed! Hothams temps back up a couple of points. Rain again on the cam it looks like. Thredbo's edging for the negs, down to 0.2 with a record of precip.
AndDee - RE how much moisture is left in the system, i would go out on a limb and say 30mm for alpine areas, with possibly some heavier falls in gippsland to tuesday morning. hard to say but when the yarrawonga radar picks up moisture that far into the mountains u know its damn heavy precip. i cant see any snow here guys, well nothing until tuesday. i wish i was wrong like the front a couple of weeks ago i messed up on.
Another 30mm goodbye Buller and Hothams Drift lift area! I dont seem the temps dropping at Buller and Hotham is very close but not much colder air until Tue/Wed and then no moisture. Lets wait for the next front..
11:15pm and Thredbo website showing -0.1 just making the negatives. The trend has been contantly down over the last few hours. Moisture now present (AWS showing a couple of mm over the last couple of hours).
yeah thats right AndDee, but i cant do anything about it, neither can anyone. over 1900m will be nice though, around kosi anyways.
Midnight 1.0 at Hotham - Appears to have stopped raining 4.7 at Baw Baw - Still raining/showers 2.7 at Buller - Not sure but light showers looking at the radar. Looks like the heaviest has passsed us now, a few more showers this morning and into the afternoon. The fat lady has sung and is leaving the building thankfully Off to bed now and inspect the damage in the morning on the cams!
BOM snowy mountains forecast: This would mean snow (heavy at times) at Charlotte Pass (lowest point 1760m), and Perisher Blue(most of resort is above 1700m (except for smiggins)). Why is BOM forecasting this when it is above zero temps there, and its raining/drizzling? Yesterday BOM predicted snow above these heights and it wasn't even snowing at thredbo top station (1957(i think)). Whats the deal?
well aprently we are geting southerly's today so that would threfore drop the temps throughout the day... but lets all admit that this season is crap, lets just hope for a 2001 repeat. More precip forcasted today for nsw resorts than yesterday.
HOLY cow. Thredbo village 36 mm of rain in the last 12 hrs. Yesterday at 3pm there was none. Now there's 36mm. If only it was colder. just wanna ask if it was thredbo village had been in the minuses for the last 12 hrs, how much snow would they have got. Is 36mm equal to about 10-15 or more?
36mm of rain is a typo. We havent had that much rain its just been drizzly crap. Thredbo site is reporting 3.8mm for yesterday which is in line with PB and CP. It is getting a bit heavier now- I cant understand why these temps are not droping eithier??? what gives
This is showing us how the season NOW happen here - it has been changing ovber the past ten years or so, in-line with other changes and as we move toward a more permanent elnino type effect, it will continue to be similar. Looking back over the past few years - there is a telltale trend of people hanging for that system to kick start season, fix the damage, open up more terrain by August. Did not seem to be so often in the years prior.....
We're all feeling down about snow conditions Berg, but that's just totally inaccurate. What, were we hanging out for a season-reviving snowfalls in 2004? Or 2000? Seasons don't come any better than that in Australia. The fact is we've had a string of good to at least decent seasons. This is a bad one, that's all.
From what I have gathered by reading this site the seasons can and have changed in the blink of an eye. Nature doesn't care about the ski season, or advanced purchases for accomodation or school holidays or discount lift tickets. It comes when it comes and when it comes it'll be in the blink of an eye just when people have dumped their deposits and gone to New Zealand instead. This post doesn't contain much science I know but put that aside. Models, forecasts, long wave analysis and no end of predictions have proven to have been wrong in the past. Hang in there it'll get better.
Nice rain damage on the lower supertrail and high noon but nothing which can't be fixed by the snowmakers.
It needs to get cold enough for the snowmakers to be used. Thats the only problem i see with that thought, i can't see the snowmakers being used (in vic) until thursday at the earliest
I wouldn't be surprised if the snow-makers - particularly Thredbo and Perisher - don't get an hour or two in tonight - the models are showing that 850hpa temps should start to fall from this afternoon (see Thredbo AWS - the fall is already on). The SE has set in and will eventually tap in the cold air currently approaching Tassie at the moment. Whilst there is not much moisture with the cold air (and the high will suppress much in the way of precipitation), snow making in all resorts should be in full swing from Tuesday evening onwards.
Still in a warm air flow. Just cause it is southerly doesnt mean its much cooler. Air is rotating around low. Injection of colder air still some 12hrs away -near tassie now.
Hotham down to 0.3, Bogong, as i am a novice at all this I will take your word for it, however on lower runs like slalom gully, at Hotham I don't think the guns will get going because of the hummidity factor, not just the temperature, thats my 2c worth anyway
Hi all - just back from PB this morning and can share some actual Obs from the weekend. There is not enough natural snow yet to ski even after last tuesdays 10cm fall. The only good skiing is on snowmaking areas, the temps were cold enough on wednesday and thursday for snowmakers to run continuosly and really build up good cover on Summit, Terminal and Ridge chairs (top to bottom). Friday was picture perfect day but no precip. Saturday 3am-ish snow started falling and was settling to about 1600m ASL (at PB), by 9:30 when i arrived at BC terminal (1900m ASL) about 5-6cm had accumulated and there was almost no wind - lovely skiing. As the day progressed the temps increased and the snow was falling above about 1850m by 2pm. Which meant skiing on the ridge chair you had light snow at the top, then sleet and by the time you hit the bottom it was rain for the last 150metres. Sunday 16th - Forecast snow above 1700M ASL, was raining where we were staying so decided to go as high as possible an skiied again at BC. When we arrived it was light drizzle with some sleet at 1900ASL and plus 2 degrees. It stayed like this only for an hour or so and then was just foggy until about 5pm when light rain started falling. Overall I'd say there was a slight net gain of depth for the weekend over 1800m ASL, probably about even after todays rain. Bottomline is another 30cm Plus required before any more terrain will open.
I know this is the wrong thread but a bit of psychological counselling required... Just looked at the latest GFS and it has the COLD air arriving big time tomorrow morning. My calcs for freeze levels go roughly: 2000-2100m until around 1.00am. 1900 from around 1.00am to about 7am 1600 10am 1500 1 - 4pm 1400 7pm 1300 10pm 1100 1am 1000 4-10am rising to around 1200 during the day. Should also be a few cm of fresh for NSW resorts on Tuesday as well. Not a season saver (or starter ) but back to the grind of building the depth for this season.
Hey Alexski - great post with good observations that will help those of us who try to work out snow levels by playing with models and 850, 800 temps and pressure heights.
Bogong, will northern vic resorts i.e. falls / hotham get a couple of cm's or will it be restricted to N.S.W? your counselling was helpfull (im still shaking and depressed by rain, onlt sudden dumping can help me lol)
Hard to see Vic resorts seeing much - precipitation will be marginal even for the NSW resorts closer to the low. The Vic southern resorts will probably do better. Temps will be low enough for snow-making to be going gangbusters from tomorrow though.
ahhhhhhh- Finnaly we have subzero temps at PB and Thredbo and steadily falling- Any reports from people up the hill have we got any snow falls ???.
BOM snowy mountains forecast is a little bit more encourageing...at least for some widespread dusting by tomorrow arvo...Always nice to see the mountain back to some more wintery landscape
According to aircraft reports over Melbourne, freezing levels at 4pm have dropped to 1,950m from 2,300m earlier today. Things are looking up...
OK, temps on the peak elevations are finally dropping into negs for first time in two days - Wonderful - but is there any precipitation heading for the mountains currently (Radar and Sat's look pretty bare)? - Or are we just happy to have snowmaking weather?
skied thredbo today with 10 yr old daughter and it rained light to moderate all day apart from hour and a half after lunch. it rained at the bottom, the middle and as high as you could go. driving back to queanbeyan it rained the whole way so if temps are dropping there is still alot of moisture around that is not showing up on radars. but they are going to need 30 to 40cm before any more terrain can open and the snowmaking areas are now very poor and if it rains all night they will be downright dangerous. hey but amazingly we still had fun learning some tricks on the fun boxes! I will always marvel at how ski reports always tell you there is light drizzle around and after ten minutes you are soaked to the bone.
Looks like there are some scattered showers going through. Perhaps some a little heavier than the current lot still to appear on the radar from looking at the satellite... Hopefully we won't see any more significant climbs in temperature now for a few days at least.
