Observations July 2 - 5

Discussion in 'Weather' started by DidSurfNowSki, Jul 2, 2017.

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  1. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    That looks more like it.
     
  2. zac150

    zac150 Dedicated Member

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    I'm calling BS on this photo, A) I don't recall ever seeing lights in the perisher car park, B) the cars are parked back to back, unless things have changed drastically since last year this isn't AUS,
     
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  3. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    Liked it there and like it here too.:thumbs:
     
  4. azzski

    azzski Old And Crusty
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    Already established (and admitted by the poster) to be bullshit. Still, it's poor form.
     
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  5. Deanski

    Deanski Active Member

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  6. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope Dedicated Member
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    Wonderful photos, daughter of Deanski. You can tell when there is sudden good coverage at Smiggins that it has been a very decent fall at Perisher! Just glad I'm not driving down from the hill today ...
     
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  7. Seafm

    Seafm Dedicated Member
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    And the Armagard Van delivering Normo's Pinot for him.
     
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  8. zac150

    zac150 Dedicated Member

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    Sorry I missed the admission in the second post.
     
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  9. HSVGuy

    HSVGuy Active Member

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    Comparison of a few Perisher cams between (mostly) 3:00pm yesterday and today.

    Mt Perisher:

    Olympic:

    Center Valley:

    Happy Valley:

    Ridge Quad:

    Smiggins:
     

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  10. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz Active Member

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    I Observe that no new lifts are opening tomorrow,
    IMO we Should start to see more runs by Friday/ Saturday
    here's hoping that the snow there expecting come off
     
  11. Ralph_Plow

    Ralph_Plow Dedicated Member

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    No, just saying it didn't go to plan, based on what almost anyone said. People saying it did are incorrect.

    Neither here nor there, it's weather.
     
  12. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    Temps at 500hPa dropped. But the point is we predicted wet Monday and possibly Tuesday.
    BTW : 500hPa is 5500 metres.
     
    #562 Astro66, Jul 5, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 5, 2017
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  13. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Guys, just stop it

    Who cares who was right or wrong

    And if you want to discuss it - start another thread
     
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  14. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope Dedicated Member
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    I observe that Perisher are claiming a moderate and cautious 10cm of snow in the past 24 hours, including 5cm from last night.
     
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  15. Deanski

    Deanski Active Member

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    That would probably be about right dont you reckon? I would have actually said a bit more maybe,
     
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  16. Deanski

    Deanski Active Member

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    I get what you are saying, a few missed the mark, but some forecasters DID get it right. As you said its weather.
     
  17. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz Active Member

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    Looking at the Cams & the video mid station posted I would say more than that
     
  18. snowblowa

    snowblowa Dedicated Member

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    #windblown
     
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  19. melty68

    melty68 Dedicated Member

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    If you look at the historical snow chart things...it's not usually a great idea to think you are going to get the whole of your chosen resort open at this time of the year kids
     
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  20. Deanski

    Deanski Active Member

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    Yeah I know, but if I have to spend one more day on Zoe's magic carpet!!:p
     
  21. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz Active Member

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    Wow, fingers crossed Blancheys opens soon then!!
     
  22. JustCantStop

    JustCantStop Active Member

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    I observe that it sucks to live in Victoria right now. We got a few CMs but nothing near NSW, and there is nothing big predicted in the coming weeks. Can't help fearing the worst at this stage (sorry to be negative!).
     
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  23. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Looks like a good 20 at P and more up top. Season a god now with more on the way. Heaps of piccie's of the carpark in the other live place!. Funny how the old poor form chestnut upsets us... Smniggs look great, see a lovely video of the fall.
     

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  24. snowblowa

    snowblowa Dedicated Member

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    .....wash your mouth out with soap please. NOW! VIC will rock when the right systems roll in, patience young jedi....;)
     
  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    -1.1 at Ginini ( same alt. as Perisher) with precip picking up. Dropped from 11 to 9 at Kambah ACT. and now raining.
     
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  26. shauno

    shauno Active Member

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    Its been raining a fair bit in north Canberra last few hours ( first time in weeks) so hopefully that means snow up higher

    Its feeling colder so Im thinking its dumping down
     
  27. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    I cant believe there are people in here squabbling like spoilt brats over who got it right or wrong.
    There are many and varied people in here and elsewhere who try to forecast weather as best they can , in every instance some get it mostly right , some a bit right and some not so much. I guess this is due to a variety of factors , education/training , bias . experience etc. What I have learnt in these forums is to identify those who seem to have a better skill set , of which there are a few , and lean my own bias towards them. Do they get it right all the time ? Certainly not but they do supply the reader with reasons for their forecast and most can say why something eventuated or not.
    There were some in here who predicted Monday and Tuesday and there were some who didn't , so to say things didn't go to plan is dependent upon who's plan you were following. I listened to those that I favour and so for me the past 3 days went pretty much the way I was expecting , so for me it went to plan.

    The good news is these heavy , dark clouds I reported about 2 hours ago may provide more snow tonight and tomorrow could well be 1 of those days of the season we all want. For those lucky enough to be on the hill I hope we have a great night so you lucky baskets can enjoy it tomorrow.
     
  28. hongomania

    hongomania Dedicated Member
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    Another afternoon on the hill. Snowing some good wet base building phatness.

    Cloud clearing in kiewa and ovens valley and breeze feeling cooler. Some speckled goodness on the way in upper cloud layer
     
  29. Wardy

    Wardy Well-Known Member

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    Love your work son, but if that's the case it's going to be a super crap season. There's SFA open, and SFA cover. We need at least another 50 to get anything like a decent season going, and that aint coming tonight.
     
  30. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Active Member

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    Snow level still looks 1500-1600 or thereabouts in NSW, hopefully lowers some overnight and stays lower (which it should) thru weekend
     
  31. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Dedicated Member
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    The snow season is not just 2-3 weeks of school holidays. :rolleyes:
     
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  32. Kappy

    Kappy Well-Known Member

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    Hear hear! (edit - grammar incorrect first post)
     
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  33. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Fair enough ( I wont be there for another couple of weeks) but I try to stay on the positive side of things. So even if it turns out to be a crap season overall { and this is a matter of opinion as well , 1 mans rock is another mans diamond ;) ) there are still days that are better than others and the next few days may provide one of the days of this season. Admittedly stacked up against the all time best days it may not enter the discussion but .....even crappy seasons have good days.
     
  34. Kappy

    Kappy Well-Known Member

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    I observe that the residents at South Perisher need to go out with a hammer and break off the ice curtain obscuring the cam. I want to see straw later tonight!
     
  35. Dirkelle

    Dirkelle Active Member

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    I recognise that balcony ;) will be down there in 2/1/2 weeks with the family for live obs
     
    #585 Dirkelle, Jul 5, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 5, 2017
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  36. Alexski

    Alexski Active Member

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    Moisture has headed north of the resorts now. Nothing much in the gauges since about 2pm I dont think there will be more than a dusting overnight.
     
  37. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo
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    Mmmm .......... Low headed south. It's much further South of tassie than earlier. Also, cloud mass over Alps is scattered compared to thick earlier today.
     
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  38. zac150

    zac150 Dedicated Member

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    I reckon they probably got 17cm ;) but after yesterday's debacle decided to register 15....
     
  39. Mctavish

    Mctavish Well-Known Member

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    Skied PB today & observed 10-15, perhaps almost 20cm accumulation in a few pockets, subject to altitude & aspect. PB certainly haven't been over reporting!
    Heavy, wet base building snow almost filling gaps in vegetation. Another 10-15 will enable more runs to open. The resort is transformed but without further falls the groomers will have a hard job getting more runs open. That said temps & snow making should see Accelerator open in a few days as much of the run is almost there. Another fall like today's would see areas like Eyre become skiable. All up a fun wet day in heavy snow and lots of happy folk enjoying and making the most of the good times that were there to enjoy.
     
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  40. Deanski

    Deanski Active Member

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    Well said and exactly what I was trying to say much less eloquently.
     
  41. jungfrau

    jungfrau Well-Known Member

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    Need WA's setup over the Alps :eek:
     
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  42. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    I observe a lot of naval gazing and doom and gloom for the first week of July.....

    We are in a shifting weather pattern at the beginning of the ski season so no need to panic yet.

    I grew up when the Falls Creek Summit was still a T Bar and the Powerhouse housed all the power..... Back then, we use to have 3 terms per year but not long after, we shifted to 4 terms and you never booked the first week of the winter holiday unless you were desperate because there was no decent snow making and more often than not, you spent the week hiking....

    We are only halfway through a 2 stage system. Wait for tomorrows model run to give an idea of Friday and then see where we sit. Its not over yet.... Stage 2 is only just leaving Perth
     
  43. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Today's tale from Buller.
    [​IMG]

    Southside Chair at Buller, very nice.
    [​IMG]
    Looking down into the Bull Run Bowl.

    It rained a bit early morning, and late morning.
    Between 12pm to 2:30pm, there were periods of heavy snow! The rest was filled with light snow. First it was tiny little white balls, and by 1:30pm transitioned to snow needles. It stopped at 2:30pm.
    The blue sky trying to poke through the clouds at 3pm. Finally you could see.
    [​IMG]

    5-10cm of fresh snow accum today. Not as good as Perisher, but Buller has got a nice top-up and I am sure the snowguns are on right now, getting ready to open new terrain.

    So conditions are not bad at all. Complaining about a lack of snow doesn't get you more snow:). Be grateful for the snow you do get, not the snow you do not get. Should be awesome skiing tomorrow too, before massive crowds come on the weekend.
     
  44. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    This thing till has plenty to go. Looking at the Merritts cam just now it looks like earlier groomer tracks have already been covered by new snow. Much lighter than earlier but i still think 5cm by the morning and most importantly it will start to fall lower in the less humid air.

    The air temperatures are important in determining snow level early on in the moist air stream. I've found that in the drier airmass at the tail of a system snow will tend to fall to lower elevations than the temperature suggests. You tend to get snow or nothing. If it doesn't fall as snow it evaporates before it hits the ground.

    My call is mostly sunny tomorrow with snow fuzz around the peaks. Then a bit more when the sun goes down tomorrow night.
     
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  45. Kappy

    Kappy Well-Known Member

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    Still snowing at Merrits. Not as thick but still falling right now. Love seeing the snow falling thanks to the groomers lights.
     
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  46. Kappy

    Kappy Well-Known Member

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    Still going...... 'oh happy dayz'
     
  47. jungfrau

    jungfrau Well-Known Member

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    Temps good Ne Vic now :headbang:
     
  48. chicski

    chicski Dedicated Member
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    It's been posted before. Last year?
     
  49. chicski

    chicski Dedicated Member
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    Really? I've just come back from Thredbo and it was dry.
     
  50. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Village a bit different to upper mountain.
     
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