Observations July 2020 Tasman Low

Homer

One of Us
Ski Pass
Aug 3, 2005
1,444
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Castle Hill - Sydney
Not a strange temp at all just after a hail storm

Thanks.
One thing I would never do is lie about current conditions. It's akin to cheating when playing golf.
Anyway, currently now 6.7 deg's. Virtually none of the hail has melted. I wouldn't be surprised if much of it is still remaining tomorrow morning. I suppose it depends on temps and how much rain we get overnight.
I'm happy to text photos to someone if they want to PM me. I don't know how to post from my phone.
 
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nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
Ski Pass
Jul 24, 2006
21,941
26,613
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Yuin Country

He she comes, those of us on the Coast...

Wind Warnings for Tuesday 14 July

Gale Warning for the following areas:
Sydney Closed Waters, Byron Coast, Coffs Coast, Macquarie Coast, Hunter Coast, Sydney Coast, Illawarra Coast and Batemans Coast

Strong Wind Warning for the following area:
Eden Coast
upload_2020-7-13_21-0-30.png
 

The Fallen

One of Us
Ski Pass
May 7, 2015
806
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Central Coast
Consistent heavy rumblings offshore of Cenco NSW. Won't be long before it's out turn.

IDR714-1.gif


Second image is of the one that hit us yesterday afternoon. Looking at the full satellite loop, this sucker ran all the way down the south coast and over the Alps early morning this morning. It was packing solid hail as it crossed Umina.

IDR714.gif
 

nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
Ski Pass
Jul 24, 2006
21,941
26,613
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Yuin Country
Consistent heavy rumblings offshore of Cenco NSW. Won't be long before it's out turn.

IDR714-1.gif


Second image is of the one that hit us yesterday afternoon. Looking at the full satellite loop, this sucker ran all the way down the south coast and over the Alps early morning this morning. It was packing solid hail as it crossed Umina.

IDR714.gif

yeah have had plenty flash bang out to sea for the last hour or so down here.
Cbr radar for us....
 

Northwesterly

Hard Yards
Jul 8, 2019
63
153
83
Stanhope Gardens
Well, that was something else.
30 mins of solid small hail and torrential rain. Had 5 close lightning strikes as well.
I didn't expect so much enjoyment out of such a small, slow moving cell.
Street and lawns turned white. Temp dropped from 15.7 to currently 7.4 deg's.
I'm guessing around 10 mm's all up.

I mentioned this in the Alpine Observation thread for this event. I got some small hail at my location in Stanhope Gardens too. I was only on the very edge of the cell as it only gave me 0.2mm of rainfall, a couple of booms, and few pea sized small hail. It dropped the temperature from 16’c to 13.3’c

Your observations sounds plausible considering a PWS in Dural I follow dropped 7’c to 9’c and had 3.6mm of rain from that storm.

Dural is 120m higher then me, and being directly under the heaviest rain / small hail would have drawn down the coldest air considering how cold the Upper atmosphere is with this ECL event.
 

The Fallen

One of Us
Ski Pass
May 7, 2015
806
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Central Coast
A nice stormline has formed off Sydney and it's moving north west so if it survives to the coast, the northern beaches should see some action.

IDR713-1.gif
 

nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
Ski Pass
Jul 24, 2006
21,941
26,613
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windshift to the S at 4am was a wake up...
20-30kts
havent had the anticipated precip down here as it's pushed up the coast pretty quick.
Pretty sure we all have seen this on the radar / sat :)
 
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Steve777

One of Us
Jul 4, 2019
1,147
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Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
I got a glimpse of distant lightning to the NE last night but otherwise yesterday evening was uneventful.

It was cold, wet and windy when I got up around 6:30. The wind’s still going but the rain has stopped, at least for now. It’s also got warmer, with a wind shift from W to S-SE. The Airport warmed from 11° to 16° after 6:00 AM.

Apart from Bellambi, there have been wind gusts around 80 km/h at Sydney coastal sites including 83 km/h at the Airport, 87 at Wattamolla and further North 82 at Norah Head. The top rainfall since 9:00 near Sydney looks to be 25 mm at Little Bay.
 
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warrie

One of Us
Jun 15, 2008
741
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263
Sydney
Clearing out of the deep South coast, no doubt with wind and persistent showers all day.
Screen Shot 2020-07-14 at 8.32.42 am.png
Could be a case of "Rainbow in the morning, shepherds warning.."
Applies in Europe in W flows so needs to be tweaked for SE Oz. Nice bright pic...W
 

The Fallen

One of Us
Ski Pass
May 7, 2015
806
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Central Coast
Satellite is indicating that the ECC (has it reached that class yet?) Made a move back east and is now moving north.

Is this the 2 cores becoming one and then 988mslp is next?
 

Steve777

One of Us
Jul 4, 2019
1,147
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Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
My two cents’ with (an accurate valuation?): I think that having separate ’predictions’ and ’observations’ threads is a little bit confusing. Why not combine them? I can see that the ’predictions’ might be more technical in nature while observations could be less so, but I’m sure that’s not a problem. I like to see the technical stuff and the pictures of sunsets.

Anyway, here’s the system, from the visible light satellite picture a little while ago. It looks like a cyclone of some sort:

 

The Fallen

One of Us
Ski Pass
May 7, 2015
806
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Central Coast
My two cents’ with (an accurate valuation?): I think that having separate ’predictions’ and ’observations’ threads is a little bit confusing. Why not combine them? I can see that the ’predictions’ might be more technical in nature while observations could be less so, but I’m sure that’s not a problem. I like to see the technical stuff and the pictures of sunsets.

Anyway, here’s the system, from the visible light satellite picture a little while ago. It looks like a cyclone of some sort:


I'm not a Mod but I can see what they are thinking.

Betty is a very unique system and so it the East Coast Cyclone or ECC. So they need to split the threads to maintain the integrity for historical use.

Its a new way but worth doing because we are in an ever shifting weather pattern environment.

We need to save and file our real time experience for future generations.

Or just IMO
 

The Fallen

One of Us
Ski Pass
May 7, 2015
806
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Central Coast
My two cents’ with (an accurate valuation?): I think that having separate ’predictions’ and ’observations’ threads is a little bit confusing. Why not combine them? I can see that the ’predictions’ might be more technical in nature while observations could be less so, but I’m sure that’s not a problem. I like to see the technical stuff and the pictures of sunsets.

Anyway, here’s the system, from the visible light satellite picture a little while ago. It looks like a cyclone of some sort:


ITS now a rare ECC. East Coast Cyclone
 
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The Fallen

One of Us
Ski Pass
May 7, 2015
806
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Central Coast
Seems like a Day after tomorrow setup. Solid upper level cooling sustaining a surface level event.

Heavy snow from the wrong direction then feeding a sub tropical cyclone.

What happens if the next one has a freeze at 500m.

At the moment, the best of the best have called evaporative cooling to justify the event.

Ask Kletterer, evaporative only works over a short and sharp uplift.

An easterly has uplift over 130klm.....

Doesn't add up to me.
 
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nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
Ski Pass
Jul 24, 2006
21,941
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Seems like a Day after tomorrow setup. Solid upper level cooling sustaining a surface level event.

Heavy snow from the wrong direction then feeding a sub tropical cyclone.

What happens if the next one has a freeze at 500m.

At the moment, the best of the best have called evaporative cooling to justify the event.

Ask Kletterer, evaporative only works over a short and sharp uplift.

An easterly has uplift over 130klm.....

Doesn't add up to me.

As @stormkite2000 commented this morning.
Cold feed in the up uppers , he mentioned at 200hpa jet.
for illustration here's 300 jet & temps.
by comparison the 500's where rather warm only circa neg 20.
the evaporative cooling discussion a bit over my head , need to read a little ....(edit : aah so simple, yes of course.)
upload_2020-7-14_18-7-52.png
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
22,481
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney
My two cents’ with (an accurate valuation?): I think that having separate ’predictions’ and ’observations’ threads is a little bit confusing. Why not combine them? I can see that the ’predictions’ might be more technical in nature while observations could be less so, but I’m sure that’s not a problem. I like to see the technical stuff and the pictures of sunsets.

Anyway, here’s the system, from the visible light satellite picture a little while ago. It looks like a cyclone of some sort:

Hey @Steve777 thanks for the feedback.
Noted on your standpoint. Have you subscribed to 'Watch Thread' (top right of page)? This means you get notified on each post so you're across both.

In the height of winter we can get views exceeding 50-60k on each system alone, and 100's of posts of thread contributions, that's a lot of moderating and a lot to take in as viewer.

The idea behind 'predictions' & 'obs' is to filter down for viewer digestion, considering the traffic we typically see this time of year. Noting some just wanna know the latest model prognosis, whilst others just want to contribute/view conditions etc. Some want both, hence why it's best to just sub to your preferences.

However, I do concede I thought we'd see a fair bit more discussion on this anomalous system, considering it's affecting a lot of Eastern Seaboard.
Without any change we'll keep it in mind for future systems when it's beyond the Alpine-scope.
 
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