Observations July 2020 Tasman Low

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Untele-whippet, Jul 13, 2020.

  1. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    4C, looks like sago coming down now, probably hail.
    A bleak day today.
     
  2. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Thanks.
    One thing I would never do is lie about current conditions. It's akin to cheating when playing golf.
    Anyway, currently now 6.7 deg's. Virtually none of the hail has melted. I wouldn't be surprised if much of it is still remaining tomorrow morning. I suppose it depends on temps and how much rain we get overnight.
    I'm happy to text photos to someone if they want to PM me. I don't know how to post from my phone.
     
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  3. Marts

    Marts Hard Yards

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    There is a bit of lightning and the odd rumble out to sea from here atm. Hopefully the start of things to come.
     
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  4. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    He she comes, those of us on the Coast...

    Wind Warnings for Tuesday 14 July

    Gale Warning for the following areas:
    Sydney Closed Waters, Byron Coast, Coffs Coast, Macquarie Coast, Hunter Coast, Sydney Coast, Illawarra Coast and Batemans Coast

    Strong Wind Warning for the following area:
    Eden Coast
     
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  5. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Consistent heavy rumblings offshore of Cenco NSW. Won't be long before it's out turn.



    Second image is of the one that hit us yesterday afternoon. Looking at the full satellite loop, this sucker ran all the way down the south coast and over the Alps early morning this morning. It was packing solid hail as it crossed Umina.

     
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  6. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah have had plenty flash bang out to sea for the last hour or so down here.
    Cbr radar for us....
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Observations only thread for the Tasman Low affecting those East of the GDR including coastal impacts.
     
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  8. Northwesterly

    Northwesterly Hard Yards

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    I mentioned this in the Alpine Observation thread for this event. I got some small hail at my location in Stanhope Gardens too. I was only on the very edge of the cell as it only gave me 0.2mm of rainfall, a couple of booms, and few pea sized small hail. It dropped the temperature from 16’c to 13.3’c

    Your observations sounds plausible considering a PWS in Dural I follow dropped 7’c to 9’c and had 3.6mm of rain from that storm.

    Dural is 120m higher then me, and being directly under the heaviest rain / small hail would have drawn down the coldest air considering how cold the Upper atmosphere is with this ECL event.
     
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  9. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    really starting to build up along the Coast now.
     
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  10. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some of the newer cells are popping fast. The growth speed is more akin to a mid summer buster than a slow moving low. Has to be the low freeze level helping them brew so quickly.
     
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  11. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    posted this in other thread .
    [​IMG]
     
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  12. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    All is quiet in Sydney. I was expecting a bit more fun by now.
     
  13. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Of the coast of Sydney an hour ago
     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cell inbound to E burbs over the next halfa
     
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  15. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The black cell dead east of Broken Bay has been sitting there for the last 2 hours. Must be feeding of a warm pool.

     
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  16. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    A lot of the hail that fell this afternoon is still around. 6 hrs later. Quite astounding.
    Currently 6.8 degrees.
     
  17. Ben K

    Ben K Hard Yards

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    Been getting thunder and lightning here from that storm cell off Broken Bay for about the last four hours.
     
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  18. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    A nice stormline has formed off Sydney and it's moving north west so if it survives to the coast, the northern beaches should see some action.

     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hammering rain here in eastern subs.
    Puffing 20 knots at the moment.
     
  20. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    windshift to the S at 4am was a wake up...
    20-30kts
    havent had the anticipated precip down here as it's pushed up the coast pretty quick.
    Pretty sure we all have seen this on the radar / sat :)
     
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  21. GlendaN

    GlendaN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Cold morning on the Gold Coast with a chill breeze 11 degrees atm
     
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  22. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    I got a glimpse of distant lightning to the NE last night but otherwise yesterday evening was uneventful.

    It was cold, wet and windy when I got up around 6:30. The wind’s still going but the rain has stopped, at least for now. It’s also got warmer, with a wind shift from W to S-SE. The Airport warmed from 11° to 16° after 6:00 AM.

    Apart from Bellambi, there have been wind gusts around 80 km/h at Sydney coastal sites including 83 km/h at the Airport, 87 at Wattamolla and further North 82 at Norah Head. The top rainfall since 9:00 near Sydney looks to be 25 mm at Little Bay.
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Clearing out of the deep South coast, no doubt with wind and persistent showers all day.
     
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  24. warrie

    warrie One of Us

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    Could be a case of "Rainbow in the morning, shepherds warning.."
    Applies in Europe in W flows so needs to be tweaked for SE Oz. Nice bright pic...W
     
  25. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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  26. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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  27. kylep

    kylep Cage rattler Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nick Moir :thumbs:





     
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  28. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    backdoor betty v2
     
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  29. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sydney wave bouy is now hitting 10m.
     
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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    #notanECL though, just saying ;)
     
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  31. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Note that's HMax not HSig, not all that uncommon on a Tasman Low.
    Wait for tonight...
     
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  33. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    The 2 lows becoming one loop. Hosted on imgur large file use's resource's.
     
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  34. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bit soggy in Drummoyne. Party time.
     
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  35. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    That cloud mass even looks like a [expletive removed]. Mufts thread.

    [MOD EDIT: Let's not go there]
     
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  36. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Agree fully :thumbs:this was not a developed system back then. No doubt it is now.
     
  37. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Satellite is indicating that the ECC (has it reached that class yet?) Made a move back east and is now moving north.

    Is this the 2 cores becoming one and then 988mslp is next?
     
  38. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    44ml at Umina home WS since Friday. Has been a mix of hail, rain and now fast moving coldies.
     
  39. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    :thumbs:

    And the gap (wave period) is widening. It's going to be an interesting night.
     
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  40. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    CORRECTION TO ABOVE.

    The ECC moved back West before moving North.
     
  41. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    My two cents’ with (an accurate valuation?): I think that having separate ’predictions’ and ’observations’ threads is a little bit confusing. Why not combine them? I can see that the ’predictions’ might be more technical in nature while observations could be less so, but I’m sure that’s not a problem. I like to see the technical stuff and the pictures of sunsets.

    Anyway, here’s the system, from the visible light satellite picture a little while ago. It looks like a cyclone of some sort:

    [​IMG]
     
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  42. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm not a Mod but I can see what they are thinking.

    Betty is a very unique system and so it the East Coast Cyclone or ECC. So they need to split the threads to maintain the integrity for historical use.

    Its a new way but worth doing because we are in an ever shifting weather pattern environment.

    We need to save and file our real time experience for future generations.

    Or just IMO
     
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  43. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    ITS now a rare ECC. East Coast Cyclone
     
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  44. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Seems like a Day after tomorrow setup. Solid upper level cooling sustaining a surface level event.

    Heavy snow from the wrong direction then feeding a sub tropical cyclone.

    What happens if the next one has a freeze at 500m.

    At the moment, the best of the best have called evaporative cooling to justify the event.

    Ask Kletterer, evaporative only works over a short and sharp uplift.

    An easterly has uplift over 130klm.....

    Doesn't add up to me.
     
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  45. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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  46. Fozzie Bear

    Fozzie Bear One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  47. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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    Easier to cut through the waves at the crossing rather than rolling sideways across it.
     
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  48. Fozzie Bear

    Fozzie Bear One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    As well as having less to clean up from the passengers.....
     
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  49. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    As @stormkite2000 commented this morning.
    Cold feed in the up uppers , he mentioned at 200hpa jet.
    for illustration here's 300 jet & temps.
    by comparison the 500's where rather warm only circa neg 20.
    the evaporative cooling discussion a bit over my head , need to read a little ....(edit : aah so simple, yes of course.)
     
    #49 nfip, Jul 14, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2020
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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hey @Steve777 thanks for the feedback.
    Noted on your standpoint. Have you subscribed to 'Watch Thread' (top right of page)? This means you get notified on each post so you're across both.

    In the height of winter we can get views exceeding 50-60k on each system alone, and 100's of posts of thread contributions, that's a lot of moderating and a lot to take in as viewer.

    The idea behind 'predictions' & 'obs' is to filter down for viewer digestion, considering the traffic we typically see this time of year. Noting some just wanna know the latest model prognosis, whilst others just want to contribute/view conditions etc. Some want both, hence why it's best to just sub to your preferences.

    However, I do concede I thought we'd see a fair bit more discussion on this anomalous system, considering it's affecting a lot of Eastern Seaboard.
    Without any change we'll keep it in mind for future systems when it's beyond the Alpine-scope.
     
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