Predictions July 20th-22nd

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 12, 2017.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC is loving this period as well.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Canucks have the love coming in on the 22nd

    [​IMG]

    GFS doesn't like it today.

    IMO
     
  2. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Will see if it holds over time.
     
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  3. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Sat the 22nd looks like a ripper.
     
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  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just need to watch GFS to see if it follows suit...
    EC has loved it for days.
     
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  5. Frisko

    Frisko Hard Yards

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    If this comes off - Goremageddon.
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC has gone off this for now IMO
     
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  7. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Yeah "Goneageddon" this morning....
     
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  8. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Im predicting the return of the 'mintageddon' in the next few runs.
     
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  9. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    Big turn around from yesterday by the looks.
    Anyone think it it will reappear.
     
  10. nickxylophone

    nickxylophone Early Days

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    [​IMG]
    EC still has the original system pushed to the south, but then this as a follow up looks pretty tasty
     
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  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could, just gotta have a bit of patience.
     
  12. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    EC is back with an epic sister system (CMC is half on the bus, while GFS is not having a bar of it yet)

    Saturday 22 July

    [​IMG]

    Compared to today's July 18 Forcast....

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I like the look of this more than the Tuesday/wednesday set up.
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I think we'll need to see how early next week plays out to have any sort of confidence with this one.
     
  15. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hey, you might be onto something CC
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Sometimes the obvious needs to be spelled out. Some people tend to miss it ;)
     
  17. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's a bog-load of cold air and moisture going around the pole at the moment:
    [​IMG]
    South America going to be plastered big time. The remnants of that should be in our area in about 2 weeks time, how well it re-forms will dictate what we get out of it. 14th-18th and this thread (20-22) are building nicely with a lot of pump to them.
     
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  18. 2cool

    2cool Hard Yards

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  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Might have to adjust the dates here.
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO looking at tonight EC run, it looks like snow from late on the 20th to the 23rd.
    No agreement from GFS, which has a system on the 19th, or CMC for that matter.
     
  21. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    EC not very keen on it again this am....I think(don't really know what I'm looking at)
     
  22. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Clipper next Monday'ish
     
  23. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Hard Yards

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    Looks like a downgrade this am, but its not going to take much of a shift in the models for it to be an upgrade again.. But maybe calling it 7days out is optimistic!!
     
  24. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    All I see is warm and dry Northwesterlies this time next week. Sadly the AAO looks to be going back to +ve again very quickly... Next.
     
  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    If it does track as GFS shows Tassie will get hammered IMO
     
  26. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    Froggy Taylor and the Grasshopper don't like this period much at all....................meh. Downgrading this far out cant be a good thing I would assume.
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It's a bit meh now.
     
  28. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Spring skiing in July... Hmmmm Hmm.
     
  29. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    Noooooo...say it ain't so:cry:
     
  30. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Im not worried yet. Need the system due monday to clear out to see what will happen. The models had issues last year picking follow up systems with one still to play out.
     
    #30 1st_King_of_QBN, Jul 15, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2017
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  31. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Access G looks quite nice compared to the other forecasts. It has a juicy polar jet zipping up from Antarctica mid-week. Unlikely, but intriguing.
     
  32. bondibob

    bondibob One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Let's wait till Thursday... let's get the Tuesday:Wednesday system sorted.

    We are struggling to get systems correct 48hours out never mind a week away.

    It's been a weird season so far but surely things have to work out sometime.
     
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  33. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    GFS is still drunk and is stumbling around. However, this run has a series of fronts coming through so I thought I would post them up even though they stretch the date range above.

    Week change on the 23rd/24th.
    [​IMG]

    Better change on the 28th.

    [​IMG]
     
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  34. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I still think Buller will do particularly well out of this -after some initial westerly rain.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    No agreement from the models for this period. IMO
    EC and CMC going for something around the 24 and 25.
    GFS likes the 23rd as above.
     
  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It was hinging on how the second cold pool merged with the preceding Low. The tracking speed was just too brisk to impact the mainland IMO. Might still give Tassie some goodness though. IMO
     
  37. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    No real direct hit of cold air during this period of time. Not much luck this year.
     
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  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC still likes a smallish hit for the 24-25th. If it's still there later today I create a new thread for this.
    IMO
     
  39. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Im having issues with the models in this time frame. Just dont think the highs are going to ridge out the big lows spining just to the south. Any other opinions?
     
  40. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    It looks to me that the issue will be warm air getting advected in from inland Western Australia. Those Lows in the Bight will suck that air towards SE Australia and there's not enough cold air in the mix during this time frame. Might have to wait until late next week for the situation to improve.
     
  41. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    Is that's what's happening? I was thinking the same as 1st king. How does a 985 low get ridged by these weak highs?
     
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  42. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Look at the upper charts (i.e 300 and 500 Hpa charts). Trough is positioned out West and upper-High is over Queensland. That directs warm air into SE Aust.
     
  43. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Hard Yards

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    Its peaked to early, not much from this IMO... Hopefully it pulls some moisture into the southern ocean though.
     
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  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Upper level pressure vs low level pressure. 3D Not every system goes through occlusion to stack up through the tropo levels.
     
  45. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    It's the void of nothingness and the weakest ridge I have seen for some time, imo. Surely something is going to push up through this...
    [​IMG]
     
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  46. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Finally, with the current system clearing out things look to be 'up grading' for the better on the latest GFS run. Clipper it may be at the moment, but that better than zip.

    [​IMG]
     
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  47. Funky

    Funky One of Us

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    Is this for this date range? Or for into next week?
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    23rd
     
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  49. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Sun the 23rd. Just out side of this thred range but close enough to swing into it.
     
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  50. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    spag says clipper and again on the 26th.
     
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