EC is loving this period as well. Canucks have the love coming in on the 22nd GFS doesn't like it today. IMO
EC still has the original system pushed to the south, but then this as a follow up looks pretty tasty
EC is back with an epic sister system (CMC is half on the bus, while GFS is not having a bar of it yet) Saturday 22 July Compared to today's July 18 Forcast....
I think we'll need to see how early next week plays out to have any sort of confidence with this one.
There's a bog-load of cold air and moisture going around the pole at the moment: South America going to be plastered big time. The remnants of that should be in our area in about 2 weeks time, how well it re-forms will dictate what we get out of it. 14th-18th and this thread (20-22) are building nicely with a lot of pump to them.
IMO looking at tonight EC run, it looks like snow from late on the 20th to the 23rd. No agreement from GFS, which has a system on the 19th, or CMC for that matter.
Looks like a downgrade this am, but its not going to take much of a shift in the models for it to be an upgrade again.. But maybe calling it 7days out is optimistic!!
All I see is warm and dry Northwesterlies this time next week. Sadly the AAO looks to be going back to +ve again very quickly... Next.
Froggy Taylor and the Grasshopper don't like this period much at all....................meh. Downgrading this far out cant be a good thing I would assume.
Im not worried yet. Need the system due monday to clear out to see what will happen. The models had issues last year picking follow up systems with one still to play out.
Access G looks quite nice compared to the other forecasts. It has a juicy polar jet zipping up from Antarctica mid-week. Unlikely, but intriguing.
Let's wait till Thursday... let's get the Tuesday:Wednesday system sorted. We are struggling to get systems correct 48hours out never mind a week away. It's been a weird season so far but surely things have to work out sometime.
GFS is still drunk and is stumbling around. However, this run has a series of fronts coming through so I thought I would post them up even though they stretch the date range above. Week change on the 23rd/24th. Better change on the 28th.
No agreement from the models for this period. IMO EC and CMC going for something around the 24 and 25. GFS likes the 23rd as above.
It was hinging on how the second cold pool merged with the preceding Low. The tracking speed was just too brisk to impact the mainland IMO. Might still give Tassie some goodness though. IMO
EC still likes a smallish hit for the 24-25th. If it's still there later today I create a new thread for this. IMO
Im having issues with the models in this time frame. Just dont think the highs are going to ridge out the big lows spining just to the south. Any other opinions?
It looks to me that the issue will be warm air getting advected in from inland Western Australia. Those Lows in the Bight will suck that air towards SE Australia and there's not enough cold air in the mix during this time frame. Might have to wait until late next week for the situation to improve.
Is that's what's happening? I was thinking the same as 1st king. How does a 985 low get ridged by these weak highs?
Look at the upper charts (i.e 300 and 500 Hpa charts). Trough is positioned out West and upper-High is over Queensland. That directs warm air into SE Aust.
Its peaked to early, not much from this IMO... Hopefully it pulls some moisture into the southern ocean though.
Upper level pressure vs low level pressure. 3D Not every system goes through occlusion to stack up through the tropo levels.
It's the void of nothingness and the weakest ridge I have seen for some time, imo. Surely something is going to push up through this...
Finally, with the current system clearing out things look to be 'up grading' for the better on the latest GFS run. Clipper it may be at the moment, but that better than zip.
