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Predictions July 23rd-26th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Vermillion, Jul 14, 2014.

  1. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks good on the models this morning. LWT also looks promising. I wont get too deep into it until the next front crosses us, but looks like we'll be having more 'weather' for a while yet.
     
  2. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    Following - in falls until the 25th
     
  3. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some are forecasting warm temps for this period with clear snow the possible result.

    I am hoping they are wrong and Verm is on the money.
     
    Chondro and DHS like this.
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Still looking messy on GFS IMO

    240h EC shows it just coming into range

    [​IMG]
     
  5. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    EC ensembles and spag not even interested
    [​IMG]
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    last 3 GFS runs all change massively for this period IMO. Nothing solidifying yet.
     
  7. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I'll be down there....strike ratio is pretty good this season , so hopefully its all good
     
  8. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gut feeling is it's a nothing system, will fizzle as we get closer IMO. I suspect a block is forming se of NZ that will start to impact further falls.
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    A lot of movement in EC runs too.
    This afternoon.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Far from settled.
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    And GFS 00 UTC run

    [​IMG]
     
  11. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    All over the place. Pressure and temperature are marginal at best. What little moisture there is is ahead of the cold air IMO
     
  12. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    The blocking high south east of NZ has been has been a feature all winter so far, it's one of the reasons we're having such a rubbish season. Hopefully we're just starting to see the first signs of it weakening.
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO all looking pretty meh on this morning's runs.
    And minimal agreement between GFS and EC

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  14. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Soft cutoff
    [​IMG]
     
  15. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    ECMWF out at the pub?
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    GFS

    [​IMG][​IMG]


    Pressure is too high in either case for snow in NSW IMO, but suggest there is more evolution in the models to come as we get closer. Anything is a guess currently.



    Note the change in blocking. The pattern at the analysis has been steady for a while but it starts to change quickly. The block is moving into the wrong spot.



    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Latest EC and GFS starting to gel to something similar.
    Neither looks particularly good for snowfall, IMO
     
  17. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Yeah looking a bit bland I must say...
     
  18. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    damn. not the news i wanted to hear with 3 sleeps to go
     
  19. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    ?
     
  20. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    the predicitions, im off to falls friday for a week
     
  21. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Should be fun as
     
  22. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    Yep, i dont mind the bluebirds, got a guy coming whos never had freshies tho which would have been nice.

    Not going to be complaining riding around in a hoodie tho thats for sure

    sorry to venture semi off topic CC
     
  23. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    If you're going this Friday (18th) looks like you could get some fresh Friday / Saturday. This thread is for the following week.
     
  24. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I can only see a big fat high for next week
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO some rain on the 24th, but not a whole lot. Perhaps snow above 2000m.
     
  26. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Imo a tasman low and weak cold pool..
     
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  27. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    IMO nothing is really on after Friday this week.

    But there is plenty of potential to the west, so forecast ensembles may improve.
     
  28. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, I use the FNMOC portal and there is something brewing behind Friday week's run.
     
  29. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Given the vibe so far this season, I'm anticipating models will improve
     
  30. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    EC ensemble
    [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
  31. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Meh.

    (IMO)
     
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  33. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good for skiing though, might get a bit icy but softening during the day
     
  34. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    A bit of backtracking on the models towards slightly better conditions - slightly lower pressure but little moisture. Nothing to get excited about yet. Winds have started to increase speed over the weekend.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Perhaps something minor at the tail end of this prediction period on EC.
    GFS still is nothing IMO.
     
  36. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I should explain - was worried about freeze level rising too high. Now lowering so I'm happy. Too early for spring slush.
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Just perhaps ....
    IMO

    [​IMG]
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks to peak a little to early on EC for mine IMO
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  39. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    No agreement yet on models but they continue to lower the freeze level and introduce a small amount of moisture IMO. Could it be a mid-range model wobble?

    Anybody know if there is a panel of ensembles? I miss my UK sources.
     
  40. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    I wouldn't write off these dates yet, has that look about it that something could be brewing either during these dates or just after....
     
  41. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I wish. Found sort of what I was looking for.

    Sydney 850s Temp Spread - not a lot of variation.
    [​IMG]

    Pressure never gets really low
    [​IMG]


    GFS Spag - a grouping around the low pressure heading south as per ECMWF with not a lot of support for anything to hit the alps
    [​IMG]

    precip
    [​IMG]

    Precip ensemble averages/spread shows at best 2-5mm if temperature and pressure falls into place
    [​IMG]
     
  42. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    The little bulge here:

    [​IMG]


    I've been more interested in the one behind it, now not due until the 29th or 30th.
     
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  43. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Improving
     
  44. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    I agree Wardy. GFS and ACCESS both have a nice little top up arriving around 168 hrs. ECMWF also has a system arriving at this time that has potential for a top up but 850hpa temps look borderline.
     
  45. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    EC liking the tail end of this system - date range extension or new thread CC?

    [​IMG]
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I think this is different.
    As a few have said in the BBQ thread, the 28-30th is interesting.
     
  47. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    ECM seems to have the highs hitting quite a northerly position by the 28th-30th. Might open the door for a succession of fronts in a more westerly airstream.
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This morning's GFS still likes it a little for late on 24th IMO

    [​IMG]

    Temps seem ok.

    [​IMG]

    A quick 10-15cm and out?

    EC still has it peaking further west.
     
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  49. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting, good development but without agreement between models it's still a guess. IMO it's so marginal that the models can't resolve it yet.
     
  50. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    5-10cm clipper at best imo
     
    #50 The Plowking, Jul 18, 2014
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2014