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Predictions July 23rd-26th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Vermillion, Jul 14, 2014.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    00 UTC GFS run pushing it out to the 25th.
    Yes a clipper IMO
     
  2. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I could deal with and then some sun for that weekend
     
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  3. Vandans

    Vandans Hard Yards

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    Lets see it could turn round and bite us. Frog this morning thought that there was something in it. BOM 4 dayer out seems to have it peaking over WA though.
     
  4. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well it did look ok on morning gfs.....
     
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  5. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    looks even better on this arvos

    hello
     
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  6. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Patiently waiting for the EC 00UTC update......can't be far off now
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  8. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Something brewing but still a fair way out........

    [​IMG]
     
  9. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Freeze level continues to lower for Thurs/Fri. Some forecasts calling for 5-10cm both days but I think 2-5cm is the best that can be hoped for IMO. Vic resorts to do better.

    Winds will make a return with the passage of the system but easing by Sat.
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO not sure what the snow level will be Thursday, might be ok 1500m & above.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    still looks fairly weak.

    Virtually non-existent on EC.
     
  11. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Snow levels are fine on thursday. It could be a good system.
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO I don't think so.
     
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  13. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    A guy was bangin on about the frog to me this arvo on the black sallee's deck in Thredbo during last run down drinks. Started quoting grasshopper too. Ehmmmmm......
     
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  14. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Dust on crust System
     
  15. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Did you tell him they both have NFI?
     
  16. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Harder to predict snow than surf I reckon.
     
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  17. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    self edit moved comment to BBQ thread
     
    #67 nfip, Jul 20, 2014
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2014
  18. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Back on topic and it's looking pretty blocked on EC this morning.

    Our run of back to back systems has come to an end and IMO nothing overly interesting for a while:

    [​IMG]
     
  19. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jane and Frog don't like the 24-26th, grasshopper saying 2-5cm like I am.

    144 charts - ECMWF now looking like the GFS of a few days ago IMO. GFS now moving away from a snowy result though with higher pressure and cutting us off from any cold. Could be quite warm sat/sun afternoons.

    Hoping that ecmwf is more on the money now.
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Going, going ...

    [​IMG]

    On EC morning run, I'd say 5cm about 1600m or above. Temps not all that great. Really a nothing system IMO.
     
  21. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Not much in it IMO. 10cm above 1700m if it comes through at the right time of day. More action lurking 29th IMO
     
  22. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    something brewing around 29th-2nd? someone wanna start another thread or too far out?
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    looking promising. Give it a day or so.
     
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  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This event still looks like rain below 1600m and mixed below 1800m.

    [​IMG]
     
  25. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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  26. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    IMO with the base we have, won't affect too much
     
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  27. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    700 hpa are around -8 C.

    I can think of much more marginal events that delivered.

    Just warms up to quickly Sunday.

    [​IMG]
     
  28. Cubed

    Cubed Hard Yards

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    Ditto Wombat, significant -25c 500hPa cold pool which coincides with South-Westerly travelling moisture, also 700hPa temps aint bad, so snow to 1600m or lower for the bulk of the moisture is not impossible if the timing is right IMO
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    These marginal higher pressure systems occasionally surprise us in Aus
     
  29. Slalom

    Slalom A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    So my sneaky day trip to Buller on Friday looks like a wet trek? Or are we talking a quick shower here or there?
     
  30. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Somewhat of a cold pool forming on 850 temps for Sat/Sun. Won't help Thurs / Fri moisture. imo.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Don't think you'll get drowned. Perhaps one of those days with a wet mix, but not a lot of precipitation.
    IMO.
     
    #81 Claude Cat, Jul 21, 2014
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2014
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  32. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]

    IMHO ... very average, could be snot and mizzle high and clear mixer down low
     
  33. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, Jane not liking it either.

    But she sees things improving next week:

     
  34. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Its not gonna do much damage below 1500m. Could be good.
     
  35. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Better than this IMO. Not sure by how much - snow showers above 1500 for 24hrs or so.
     
  36. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Will need a wandering cold pool in that widely separated 5440/5400 IMO
     
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  37. jward101

    jward101 Hard Yards

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    Any last predics for the tail end of this system? Snowwatch notes the following on FB but I don't get that vibe from this thread.
     
  38. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I don't see alot of anything for this period now
    Not even rain
     
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  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    2/5s of $#@^-all.

    (IMO)
     
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  40. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hmmmm
    ACCESSR more bullish on the update
    Wandering cold pool arrives on cue LOL and moisture upped through the Alps
    Could see some moderate snowfall Friday pm through Saturday in places
    How it translates into accumulation I don't know
    But not a write off yet IMO
     
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  41. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I guess if we look at the period for greatest precipitation over the alps (Friday afternoon)

    [​IMG]

    850hPa temps are quite warm
    [​IMG]

    500 hPa temps are not too bad

    [​IMG]

    IMO kind of spells wet snow or a "wet mix" down to 1600m. Above 1800m might be ok.
    It does cool down later on Saturday, but it does dry out also.
     
  43. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pretty much as I expected when I started watching these dates.
     
  44. absentskier

    absentskier Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    @Claude Cat what would you expect the weather to be like at Buller this weekend?
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Saturday - chance of showers - probably a mix of snow & rain, but not too much (couple mm ?)
    Sunday - drier, but still a bit cloudy.
    Reckon visibility might be pretty ordinary for both days. Light winds.

    IMO
     
  46. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cold pool should arrive Sat. IMO.
    Should see some snow at higher resorts. IMO.
    Should be good for snowmaking Sat Night. Then better day Sunday. IMO.