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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Vermillion, Jul 14, 2014.
00 UTC GFS run pushing it out to the 25th.
Yes a clipper IMO
I could deal with and then some sun for that weekend
Lets see it could turn round and bite us. Frog this morning thought that there was something in it. BOM 4 dayer out seems to have it peaking over WA though.
Well it did look ok on morning gfs.....
looks even better on this arvos
Patiently waiting for the EC 00UTC update......can't be far off now
Something brewing but still a fair way out........
Freeze level continues to lower for Thurs/Fri. Some forecasts calling for 5-10cm both days but I think 2-5cm is the best that can be hoped for IMO. Vic resorts to do better.
Winds will make a return with the passage of the system but easing by Sat.
IMO not sure what the snow level will be Thursday, might be ok 1500m & above.
still looks fairly weak.
Virtually non-existent on EC.
Snow levels are fine on thursday. It could be a good system.
IMO I don't think so.
A guy was bangin on about the frog to me this arvo on the black sallee's deck in Thredbo during last run down drinks. Started quoting grasshopper too. Ehmmmmm......
Dust on crust System
Did you tell him they both have NFI?
Harder to predict snow than surf I reckon.
self edit moved comment to BBQ thread
Back on topic and it's looking pretty blocked on EC this morning.
Our run of back to back systems has come to an end and IMO nothing overly interesting for a while:
Jane and Frog don't like the 24-26th, grasshopper saying 2-5cm like I am.
144 charts - ECMWF now looking like the GFS of a few days ago IMO. GFS now moving away from a snowy result though with higher pressure and cutting us off from any cold. Could be quite warm sat/sun afternoons.
Hoping that ecmwf is more on the money now.
Going, going ...
On EC morning run, I'd say 5cm about 1600m or above. Temps not all that great. Really a nothing system IMO.
Not much in it IMO. 10cm above 1700m if it comes through at the right time of day. More action lurking 29th IMO
something brewing around 29th-2nd? someone wanna start another thread or too far out?
looking promising. Give it a day or so.
This event still looks like rain below 1600m and mixed below 1800m.
IMO with the base we have, won't affect too much
700 hpa are around -8 C.
I can think of much more marginal events that delivered.
Just warms up to quickly Sunday.
Ditto Wombat, significant -25c 500hPa cold pool which coincides with South-Westerly travelling moisture, also 700hPa temps aint bad, so snow to 1600m or lower for the bulk of the moisture is not impossible if the timing is right IMO
These marginal higher pressure systems occasionally surprise us in Aus
So my sneaky day trip to Buller on Friday looks like a wet trek? Or are we talking a quick shower here or there?
Somewhat of a cold pool forming on 850 temps for Sat/Sun. Won't help Thurs / Fri moisture. imo.
Don't think you'll get drowned. Perhaps one of those days with a wet mix, but not a lot of precipitation.
IMHO ... very average, could be snot and mizzle high and clear mixer down low
Yeah, Jane not liking it either.
But she sees things improving next week:
Its not gonna do much damage below 1500m. Could be good.
Better than this IMO. Not sure by how much - snow showers above 1500 for 24hrs or so.
Will need a wandering cold pool in that widely separated 5440/5400 IMO
Any last predics for the tail end of this system? Snowwatch notes the following on FB but I don't get that vibe from this thread.
I don't see alot of anything for this period now
Not even rain
2/5s of $#@^-all.
ACCESSR more bullish on the update
Wandering cold pool arrives on cue and moisture upped through the Alps
Could see some moderate snowfall Friday pm through Saturday in places
How it translates into accumulation I don't know
But not a write off yet IMO
I guess if we look at the period for greatest precipitation over the alps (Friday afternoon)
850hPa temps are quite warm
500 hPa temps are not too bad
IMO kind of spells wet snow or a "wet mix" down to 1600m. Above 1800m might be ok.
It does cool down later on Saturday, but it does dry out also.
Pretty much as I expected when I started watching these dates.
@Claude Cat what would you expect the weather to be like at Buller this weekend?
Saturday - chance of showers - probably a mix of snow & rain, but not too much (couple mm ?)
Sunday - drier, but still a bit cloudy.
Reckon visibility might be pretty ordinary for both days. Light winds.
Cold pool should arrive Sat. IMO.
Should see some snow at higher resorts. IMO.
Should be good for snowmaking Sat Night. Then better day Sunday. IMO.