July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by slog_of_old, Jul 19, 2006.

  1. slog_of_old

    slog_of_old Hard Yards

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    July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Delete this if there is another thread about this front, Sandy, but i can't find one.

    Looks to me we are going to get an ECL formed about next Monday, and with plenty of tropical moisture in it, there is a very real possibility of a serious rain event Monday-Wednesday next week. Long way out at this stage, but charts don't look too good.

    Any comments from the experts out there??
     
  2. bogong_flyer

    bogong_flyer First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Too early to panic totally.

    The better motto might be to "be alert and bit alarmed"

    GFS doesn't look good; EC is less horrific. At least this one is not going to be drawing in air from the Gulf of Carpentaria... like the currently departing system did.

    There is plenty of time for it to change around.
     
  3. the southern oracle

    the southern oracle First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    what are the chances of a cold front ramming this one and bringing the snow level down, can anyone post the 144hrs

    cheers
     
  4. bogong_flyer

    bogong_flyer First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Unlikely - there will be a big ridge following that will stop anything until the high moves on and allows the next system through.

    With this one you have to hope either that it stays cold enough (and it will be marginal at best for the higher resorts) or it fizzles out as it passes over the Alps and moves rapidly away into the Tasman before it really develops.

    [​IMG]
     
    #4 bogong_flyer, Jul 19, 2006
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  5. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Yeh, i would hope it just dosn't form and stays away. Better to get nothing then rain, and like bogong said above, because of the ridging high, it will not allow any cold air to come up.

    :cheers:
     
  6. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    correct me if i'm wrong, but there is still a decent chunk of cold air in that gfs - the alps are between the 540 and 546 lines at 500mb. this would mean freezing temps higher up, but not a total rain event...

    that said, this one looks a bit retarded. last week's inland trough seems to have stirred everything up and now we're settling again - it's like a cup of milo that can somehow stir itself, it'll take a while for things to "get back to normal" (if we can describe anything from this winter as normal).

    the outbreak peaking off WA in that gfs is also the strongest outbreak we've had in about 3 weeks and the high pressure band in some of the models looks a few degrees further north than they were a few weeks back so i can see august being more conventional.
     
  7. sir_rhyso

    sir_rhyso One of Us

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    This is where we hope for the big high to slow down a couple of days off SW vic, allowing for a southerly fetch to bring the cold air when the ecl comes through. The above set up looks unlikely to be exactly as the map says, so don't panic.
     
  8. sir_rhyso

    sir_rhyso One of Us

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    850mb temps for Monday currently indicate an approximate freeze level of 1900m
     
  9. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Looking at The Frog forecast, It seems to be next Tueasday the big s**t.
     
  10. franky_84

    franky_84 First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    This dont look good [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #10 franky_84, Jul 19, 2006
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  11. sir_rhyso

    sir_rhyso One of Us

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    It doesn't look good but I will eat my hat if there is a rain band reaching Canberra with 60-80mm in it.
     
  12. longinforearly90s

    longinforearly90s First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    if that map comes off then goulburns water storage problem is solved in 24hrs and canberra will be re-writing the rainfall record books!
     
  13. queenslander

    queenslander First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    why does the 6 day outlook say that we pb and threadbo are in for snow on mon/tue/wed, are they seeing something we are not?? how could they misread it that badly??
     
  14. slog_of_old

    slog_of_old Hard Yards

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Freeze level looks to be around 1900-2000m on Wednesday, but well into the 2000's for Monday/Tuesday. Both Perisher and Thredbo should get wet snow at the peaks, but the rest? .. forget about it.

    Pattern similar to 2003 front that delivered over one metre, but the 850mb temps are much higher. This needs to change big time from current charts......
     
  15. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    im not excited about this one, but there will be some good rain once again.
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    EC is less worried about this one. Let's hope it's right.
    [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #16 Claude Cat, Jul 19, 2006
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  17. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    game over boys and girls
     
  18. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    what chief??? To me, charts are improving ladies en gentleman...
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    No explanation to why... Go back to convo. :goose:
     
    #19 POW_hungry, Jul 19, 2006
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  20. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    I can just see whats going to happen.
    It rains on these dates, that was the last straw, even the optimists give up! Everyone leaves the mountain, everyone cancles the bookings. Then...on the 31st - 1st of August it dumps down a couple of feet of snow and the season is born [​IMG] . It then continues snowing untill well into late September and early October! It turned out to be a very late unusual season, where a withstandable snowdepth was eventaully reached. Noisy predicted a late season, he is now correct in saying 'warm and wet'.

    From the charts- Yes it dosn't look cold enough, but obviously it all comes down to where that ECL goes. That story though is now being told in the Extended "Special" section of the charts, which i made a note to mysself at the start of the season, never to go to! [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #20 Stratus, Jul 19, 2006
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  21. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Wow, look how different EC is to GFS! (above). Dosn't look nearly as bad.
     
  22. loc

    loc Hard Yards

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    although i'm a complete newbie at this weather thing - i tend to agree with blue neon

    not to mention that's sort of what the frog was hinting at - and he has been extra cautious of late

    from what i can tell from the GFS - the northern vic resorts woudl get approx 10mm - is that enough to cuase major damage?
     
  23. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    The ECL is downgraded in the black an white charts
     
    #23 rossi, Jul 19, 2006
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  24. loc

    loc Hard Yards

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    can i ask what ecl is?
     
  25. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    East Coast Low
     
    #25 rossi, Jul 19, 2006
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  26. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Yeah I know...thats what i just said...
     
    #26 Stratus, Jul 19, 2006
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  27. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Yeah well I just wanted to go one up and throw in some pictures. Anyway you didn't say exactly that.
     
    #27 rossi, Jul 19, 2006
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  28. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Yeah well I just wanted to go one up and throw in some pictures. Anyway you didn't say exactly that. </strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Sorry i see what you were doing now...i'm too tired, i'm taking offense at everything tonight!

    :cheers:
     
    #28 Stratus, Jul 19, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  29. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Off the thread a bit...seeing as your on line take at look at the latest Falls Car Park cam.

    Just dumped for about 10 mins.
     
  30. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Can only see yesterday's snow... must have missed it!

    Sure is cold though...-4.1C! Go the snowmakers!

    [​IMG]
     
    #30 Stratus, Jul 19, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  31. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Yesterdays snow melted. What you can see is what we just got.
     
    #31 rossi, Jul 19, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  32. Dr Ken Moy

    Dr Ken Moy First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Will this make alot of snow?
     
  33. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    According Weather Zone, northeasterly flow across the resorts will increase as the trough down the east coast deepens from mid next week but that will come with a warmer air. My question to the specialists : is there any room for some inprovement for what looks like to be another ugly rain event ?
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Well I think it's already been downgraded since 2 days ago. But it looks as though the alps wont escape some rain. 15mm is likely.
    Snow looks to follow promptly.
     
  35. loc

    loc Hard Yards

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    is 15mm enough to do as much damage as last weekend?
     
  36. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    not as much because there isnt much left to do damage to.
     
  37. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    However if the snow follows 'promptly' as Pow_hungry said we could get a damn hard thin ice base ready for dumage on the 31st onwards :woohoo:
     
  38. Dr Ken Moy

    Dr Ken Moy First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Does hard thin ice help?
     
  39. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    A hard packed base is good to allow snow to fall on, and will significantly help snow accumulation, but not too fun to ski on!
     
    #39 Stratus, Jul 20, 2006
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  40. queenslander

    queenslander First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Nobody seems to have much to say about this front, the rain event we had last weekend had 20 or so pages of discussion/predictions. How similar is this front to the one that hit the alps last weekend?? both seem to suck down the warm tropical air so will the result be exactly the same?? What are the realistic chances of the air mass being cooler than expected and snow falling down to 1600/1700m or are we certain that its going to be rain up to 1900/2000m???
     
  41. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    The fact that a low will develop off QLD later in the week seems to be a certainty going by the models. Any potential damage would be generated by the southerly airflow from the adjacent high. It seems to me that if the high motors out into the Pacific a bit quicker we could see the southerly reduced and any rain and warm air confined to central or northern NSW.

    GASP (I know its and idiot), and even GFS are starting to indicate that the high could be further into the pacific than earlier models predicted. So probalby not much in the way of snow with the system, but hopefully not much rain either. It is once again, a question of timing and luck.
     
  42. bogong_flyer

    bogong_flyer First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    No-one wants to be the bearer of more bad news...

    This front (which is currently over WA) looks like dissipating at the surface over SA. Its upper level remnants will continue ENE and should produce a few light snowshowers over the Alps on Sunday/Monday - more likely over NSW because of the easterly surface flow. Any snow showers should get to at least as low as 1400m on these days.

    Once the upper circulation gets into the Tasman it looks like reviving off the NSW north coast and developing a surface low. The problem then is it will have trouble progressing eastwards because of this huge high that is currently over us and will soon form a block over NZ.

    The longer the surface low hangs around off the NSW north coast the more likely it will be to suck in warm, moist air from the Tasman. This is obviously BAD news for the resorts. Not all models are equally as gloomy - but at this stage mid-next week doesn't look promising.

    Have to pin our hopes on the system following.
     
    #42 bogong_flyer, Jul 21, 2006
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  43. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Thanks Bogong, I've been trying to figure out where the root of the NSW/QLD low was going to come from. That answers it.
     
  44. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    i have bad news and more bad news. Rain, some more rain, and potentially heavy rain aswell [​IMG]

    at least the dams will recieve a bit.
     
    #44 Vermillion, Jul 21, 2006
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  45. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    I think the southerly airflow will begin to diminsh as the models progress. I reckon the system will persist but stay pretty well out to sea. Maybe some rain for NSW but not heavy stuff.

    The 1054 GASP run shows the low further off shore and I think that this arvo's GFS will show the same pattern.

    The position of the surrounding systems is a critical part of the scenario, unlike last weeks system the simply marched a across the country unhindered and did its thing.
     
    #45 rossi, Jul 21, 2006
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  46. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Weatherzone forecast : A fairly calm and dry day across the resorts on Friday. Cloud will increase during Saturday, but showers will not arrive until at least Saturday night. A few snow showers will develop on Sunday, mainly in the north and east. Up to 5cm is likely in NSW resorts. Baw Baw should stay dry until Monday when winds shift more southeasterly. By Tuesday or Wednesday, there is some indication that winds will turn back northeasterly and freshen due to a trough on the east coast deepening. This could increase the snow showers, especially in eastern areas. Up to 10cm is possible on Wednesday, but this will be restricted to higher elevations due to the warmer nature of this airmass. From about Thursday westerly winds should bring further snow showers and at lower elevations.

    Please, can the experts comment on that because to me it seems very confusing and the forecast is changing continously
     
  47. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Soory little mistake in my previous post, this forecast is from ski.com.au
     
  48. thepass

    thepass First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    the alps GFS snowcast from weatherzone shows very heavy snow high up during this period, and some good snow lower.
     
  49. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    I think this front may surprise a few people. Hard to pick though. We may well get an absolute bucket load up high but there will be some rain especially below 1700m. From the looks of the weather reports I think the meteorologist are doing a bit of fence sitting on this one. Notice no defining levels i.e Snow above 1800m etc.
     
  50. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    For VIC

    I think it may also suprise a few people. Upper Levels show warm, but just looking at the surface charts i think the way the wind is blowing for the pre-days will affect the temperature when that low moves down. No doubt i think we'll see rain to the lower slopes...but my best guess is 1600m+ around Thursday...but it will be wet snow, but the higher we go the better it could be. Snow level lowering about 200m - 300m by Friday morning, with low pressure, we could see a bit of nice falls developing over the Alpine areas due to the lift effect.

    This is where the thread crosses over to the next obs thread, and this is where get the Westerly flow that could bring nice light but progressive snowfalls for the coming days.

    A week out though! :cheers: