July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by slog_of_old, Jul 19, 2006.

  1. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    What do you think about these dates Sandy?

    :cheers:
     
  2. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Well heres my 2 cents worth!

    IMO our best outcome for these dates is for the rainband on Wednesday to stay north/east of the mtns to limit rainfall.

    The cold pool on Sunday through Tuesday at this stage does not look to hold cold enough temps (~2 to 3 C at 1600m) or enough instability (MSLP >1020) to trigger anything more than a few flurries.

    The rainband on Wednesday for me just looks plain ugly. Too much moisture being released into this thing meaning considerable warming for the middle and upper atmosphere. I hope it heads nth to Sydneys water supply catchments!

    I'm not sure about next Thursday/Friday. Maybe for the first time this season we will see a trough in just about the right place to pull up a decent cold front?
     
  3. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    If the GFS predictions of the rain event come off then my prayers for rain in QLD are answered...but.

    The duration and intensity of the forecast even is outrageous, it would set all sorts of July records for rainfall in SE QLD and I can't see that happening.

    I don't think the ALP's are in too much danger next week, few showers a worst (but no snow til later in the week).

    Roll on August, it looks like winter starts then.
     
  4. Megs

    Megs Hard Yards

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Can someone help me to understand where that little warm from is coming in from on the BOMs forecast for next Wednesday??? Could they have made accidently popped a warm fromt rather than a cold... and it seems like all of the sytems are going to be being pushed through pretty quickly??? Is there a reason the Lows always seem to move through faster than the Highs?? The Highs we can't seem to shift and the lows are just racing past??
     
  5. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    where are you seeing a warm front
     
    #55 MisterMxyzptlk, Jul 22, 2006
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  6. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    :headbang: :headbang: :headbang:
     
    #56 Mrstr_Chief, Jul 22, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  7. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    [​IMG]
    thats just ****ing beautiful [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #57 Mrstr_Chief, Jul 22, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  8. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    bye bye 06
     
  9. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    It OK, if you have access to WZ silver and you believe in models you;ll see winter starts in August.

    Mate...its a computer prediction, it aint over til its over.
     
  10. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    So you're saying that if you can see the charts up to 14days out then there is going to be winter, but at the same time saying that models are models and anything will happen to a chart thats a week out [​IMG] .
     
    #60 Stratus, Jul 22, 2006
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  11. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Where exactly am I meant to see winter starting on the Extended GFS, all I see is a Big High pressure system blocking the stuff we need

    Systems peaking over Perth dont mean they will hit us
     
    #61 skiflat, Jul 22, 2006
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  12. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    See edit [​IMG]
     
    #62 rossi, Jul 22, 2006
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  13. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    For the first few days of ext GFS it seems to me the beginning of a more westerly flow and higher highs. The big high may diminish the effect of the peaking front, but I detect a change in the season.

    The week also looks like the beginning of more cold air. See 850hpa.

    So yeah, nothing immediate but it looks like a start.
     
    #63 rossi, Jul 22, 2006
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  14. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Also note Extended GFS is ridiculas at times.

    It showed front after front a few days ago, then it will turn around in and update or two and randomly stick a high pressure system over us...its false hope. So is GASP...

    And more bad news...LAPS is bascially almost on complete agree ment with GFS untill Tuesday [​IMG]

    This aint looking good. All i can hope for now is that that MINIMAL rain makes it to VIC, especially Buller. I dont think there is much of a chance of snow...even up high [​IMG] . I also hope that in the first few days of August something cold happens!

    Something must give...the season cannot be this bad. I just can't beleive that the season starter that we get every season... has never happened! Sure rain events happen, but where is the snow? It just hasn't come...really strange for us all. The models just dont seem to be giving hope either for the outlook...Something just has to give in the next two weeks, has to! Otherwise i'll be damned.

    [​IMG]
     
    #64 Stratus, Jul 22, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  15. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Like one of the crustier commentators said,
    'the longer we go without the big dump, the closer we get to it'.

    Stay, positive. These are only models.

    I asked the question some time ago about how close where the models to predicting the big ones in the past. The answer was generally about 72 hours when when GFS was having a bad season.

    At some point, two planets will line up during a full moon during a nano variation in the SOI and it will arrive. My prediction is that a warm day in Brisbane will equal a dumping day in the Alps. Dunno why just do.
     
  16. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Blue Neon. That predicted rain event (the one that stretches from Brissie to sthn NSW next week)is outrageous. It would be good for the dams up here if it came off despite the snow damage. But the forecasters here are predicting a few showers early in the week and thats about it.

    Honestly, the way the drought has been up here I cant see the big trough developing - a smaller one maybe but not one a coupla thousand K's long.

    We will get a few showers on the Alps but nothing that is a season ender.

    Hate to say this but I reckon the current GASP model is more accurate.
     
  17. loc

    loc Hard Yards

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    what else is gasp saying?

    so i am correct in assuming that the hype surrounding the 31st and later into august has all but dissipated?
     
  18. Ijay

    Ijay Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Much as I like snow and skiing (yes I have booked for a week in August) I think this is a desireable outlook when the drought situation in NSW is considered, things are crook and we need the rain.

    [​IMG]
     
    #68 Ijay, Jul 22, 2006
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  19. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    too true Ijay....except that we wish the rains would come before and after the snow season, not during!!

    BOM forecast is very yuk, just hope they are wrong. Massive cold front just west of Perth at the moment - hope it makes it to the alps in an intensified state!
     
  20. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Well sought of an upgrade this morning on weatherzones GFS chart looks like quite a bit of snow for nsw resorts on monday 20-30 cm but then predictions of rain till friday- nothing really heavy though. My optimism for the 2006 season will surely fade if we dont get a bit of snow tommorow and it rains till Friday.
     
  21. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    I don't wanna talk this up but I think the scenario for the week is complicated and each forecast run changes subtley. I think it is a given that the east coast is going to get a warm moist feed but its a question of where, when and how much. The models change watch and wait.

    [​IMG]
     
    #71 rossi, Jul 23, 2006
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  22. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Yes i do agree, rain is more important than snow in nsw atm, but its just really fustrating becasue this year i got new gear, and i there is a chance i will not be able to use it this season due to the lack of snow. But face it ppl, we are well due for a crap season, 6ish good season (average or above average seasons) in the last 10ish years. The other option is goin to nz, but im still convincing my dad who is hesitent to change (being sking in oz for 28 years [​IMG] ).

    The bom have upgraded, but still mentions rain from wednesday onwards.
     
    #72 Mrstr_Chief, Jul 23, 2006
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  23. phall

    phall Hard Yards

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    I don't much like the look of the extended GFS:
    [​IMG]
    More blocking highs?

    Also, you don't need WZ silver to view the extended models..
     
    #73 phall, Jul 23, 2006
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  24. Megs

    Megs Hard Yards

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Hey snow-pixie... look straight down from the Great Auusie Bite and it is about to drop off the screen from the pictures that they have up there for todays forecast... just a little bump under the 1008 number... just wondered if it had any significance at all [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #74 Megs, Jul 23, 2006
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  25. bogong_flyer

    bogong_flyer First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    For what its worth, this morning's GFS run is suggesting the NSW resorts should get around 30cm of snow by tomorrow night!!

    Its still going for some rain later in the week but not as much as previously shown.
     
  26. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Point proved.
     
    #76 Stratus, Jul 23, 2006
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  27. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Totally agree. The apocalyptic rain band is going to suffer the same problem on its way down us as the snow systems have suffered on the march east - blocking highs.
     
    #77 rossi, Jul 23, 2006
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  28. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    GFS aint going for any goods for this next week, rain and even up high around Thursday, espically for the more eastern slopes! Lets hope it stays clear of Buller.

    It would be very strange if GFS suddenly forecasted something different by tommorow night...although I hope it does.

    However, in a week times, even though GFS/Extended is not showing it yet, a good chance for some make up snowfall is the high pushes a bit furthur North...which is a really possibility!
     
  29. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Blue Neon,

    note the mid contintental positioning of the highs for next Sunday. Could be the start of winter like I keep saying.

    [​IMG]
     
    #79 rossi, Jul 23, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  30. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Hi guys, arrived at Thredbo this arvo. Will try to give you some feedback during the week. very weird weather on my way. Left Canberra at 11 am with a beautifull sun and 12 degrees, then it was overcast and a bit wet in comma with a chilly 7 degree at midday but then arrived in Jybdabyne around 1 pm and the sun was back with 12 degree...definitely too warm in the thredbo valley this arvo but the sky is clear and the temperature dropped quiet quickly after 5 pm. They should be able to top up the cover tonigh. From a genreal point of view the resort look not very good and if this rain arrives this week, It will need to snow heavily to recover.
     
  31. TC

    TC Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    welcome to 2001
     
  32. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Thats a big freakin front, cloud mass and low off WA.

    Can major Low Pressure systems 'knock' highs out the way?
     
  33. cashie

    cashie One of Us

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Just got back from Hotham, Snowed yesterday around 1pm and again topay around 2:45, some big flakes were falling as i was leaving
     
  34. Megs

    Megs Hard Yards

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Beg my ignorance... but a low pressure system turns into a trough when it weakens... yes??? I've just been having a bit of a play with the colour mean sea pressure map in the BOM and it shows a low turning into a trough... this also makes our dream of snow seem a little further off?? Or does it not effect it at all?? [​IMG]
     
    #84 Megs, Jul 23, 2006
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  35. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Some clouds were beginning to build on the main range as was seen at Blue Cow this afternoon. Hopefully a good sign but it was warm skiing today and no moisture of any kind and no wind.
     
  36. longinforearly90s

    longinforearly90s First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    raining steady in canberra, has come in from the ENE on the radar, very strange winter pattern again. Cold at thredbo but no precip near the place? [​IMG]
     
    #86 longinforearly90s, Jul 24, 2006
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  37. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    We should see some nice snow falls for NSW today. After that I cant see much rain making it to the mountains and LAPS agrees with me. That front passing through WA is pretty big I cant see it just weakining like all the models suggest.
     
  38. longinforearly90s

    longinforearly90s First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    i agree BH but I wasn't prepared to say it by myself. looks like large rain band over canberra now is tracking towards NSW resorts and its pretty cold up there at moment. I like the big front toward WA too, its going to touch sth WA but the centre of it is going to push through the bight.
     
  39. cactus jack

    cactus jack First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    i think that high off the east coast of aus could be an issue, albeit it may be a good blocking high if the temps stay right. but if the temps rise too much then we may have a problem. lets just hope that the trailing low is able to keep temps down.
     
  40. cactus jack

    cactus jack First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    does anyone know where we can access the LWT charts? I can't seem to find them.
     
  41. perthskier

    perthskier First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    got up this morning around 7:15 and took some clothes off the line. it was really warm. i think this high is going to come over east and warm the place up. hope not but i think this is one of the warmest mornings this winter.
     
  42. perthskier

    perthskier First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    has cooled down quite a bit since started to rain. and is windy. has been all morning.
     
  43. Alexia

    Alexia First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    In Corryong this am it saw 0c and at present 6c to me quite cold.
     
  44. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Good news (BETTER news)

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    Ya thats right...slide right past [​IMG] .
     
    #94 Stratus, Jul 24, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  45. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    However LAPS still makes my stomach ache. But then again GFS for the weekend makes it better again [​IMG] .

    Ahh what a weather map can do to your mood!

    :cheers:
     
    #95 Stratus, Jul 24, 2006
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  46. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Into the minus' at Falls. We are into 'anything could happen' territory. At least the rain event is theoretically on a downgrade.
     
    #96 rossi, Jul 24, 2006
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  47. FatBob

    FatBob Hard Yards

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    The BOM are not so optermistic.

    "The trough is expected to deepen off the coast on Wednesday with light rain likely
    to push inland over the snowy mountains late Wednesday into Thursday,
    unfortunately the atmosphere looks set to warm up considerably before the rain
    returns with the likelihood of any snow restricted to the highest peaks. "

    Sounds all to familiar. Warm as hell just like the last one.
    Better make the most of this lot cause if does turn out like they say, this snow plus a bit more for good measure will be gone.
     
  48. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Yeh but it aint gonna stay minus's through this whole event. Its basically a high chance that if there is any precipitaion it will be rain (maybe snow up high)...take a look at 850hPatemps...todays top temp at falls was around 3C! Day temps at least will be above 0 for the next few days.

    Good news is that definatley a precipitaion downgrade on GFS (not so much LAPS). Hopefully they may also be able to crank up the snowmaking tonight in VIC. But like you said "anything can happen"...
     
  49. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Latest from VIC BoM:


    Forecast: Tonight and Tuesday
    Showers tending to rain at times in the far east and falling as snow above 1600
    metres at first. Cloudy with a freshening southeast to easterly wind.

    Outlooks:
    Wednesday Showers tending to rain in the far east. A mostly cloudy day with
    moderate to fresh easterly winds.
    Thursday Showers becoming isolated.
    Friday Fine.


    [​IMG]
     
    #99 Stratus, Jul 24, 2006
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  50. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    These models have been bloody outrageous with their changeability over the last week, sure they where predicting that this trough would form but funnily enough GASP has been showing what GFS is showing now. Good old GASP.

    BTW I wouldn't put any faith in the GFS predictions beyond about Thursday.
     
    #100 rossi, Jul 24, 2006
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