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July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by slog_of_old, Jul 19, 2006.

  1. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    This thread seems to have been abused and abandoned, but it looks like there should be some life in it still...

    Based on GFS, Saturday the 29th looks like it could produce a nice fall. 5-20cm overnight into early Sunday, with the higher amount being possible about higher ground if the initial moisture is cold enough for snow. Tommorrow's GFS runs should give a better idea.
     
  2. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    When will the GFS run be available?
     
  3. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    [​IMG] You know that Sandy? Or are you piking on my spelin?
     
    #153 Djon, Jul 26, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  4. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Looks like a little less moisture this morning, though still reasonably cool, more like 5cm. But there is some chance of a few cm on Friday around higher ground it seems.
     
  5. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    You posted last night for "tomorrows", so what time is it ACTUALLY released.... [​IMG]
     
    #155 Sandy, Jul 26, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  6. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Still not sure what you are getting at [​IMG] ...

    I posted based on the July 25th 00z run, and was indicating that it will be interesting to see how 'tommorows' runs, ie. the July 25th 12z, and July 26th 00z ones go. I have added a post this morning based on the July 25th 12z run that completed this morning.

    Now we wait for this afternoon's run for July 26th 00z...
     
    #156 Djon, Jul 26, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  7. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    OK, I was after the this afternoon's....
     
  8. cactus jack

    cactus jack First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    i think these maps are showing more of what we want see, where the high band is stretched much more northerly than it has been in recent times. it also shows a little moisture, and seems to be promising at this stage.
    (won't update)
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #158 cactus jack, Jul 26, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  9. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Well things do look nice enough this afteroon on GFS with around 10cm looking quite possible for Saturday almost across all resorts, even Buller! [​IMG]

    However...there is a bit of divergence between the models with GASP showing things happening late Friday, clearing by Saturday morning, NOGAPS is not showing any moisture. ECMWF makes it looks like things may move through a bit quicker, but seems to otherwise correlate pretty well with GFS.

    So I think GFS with 'encouragement' from ECMWF looks the goods, but consider it may relatively hit and run which could leave a smaller fall of say 5cm.

    If it doesn't hit and run, Sunday looks good on GFS with a westerly flow being maintained which could see falls continue, but perhaps I'll look at that later with 'tomorrows' forecast runs, and in the other thread! [​IMG]
     
    #159 Djon, Jul 26, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  10. The Frog

    The Frog Old n' Crusty

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    10-15cm is looking likely from today's update....fingers crossed it should get down to around 1300m.
     
  11. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    sweet :thumbs:
     
    #161 Mrstr_Chief, Jul 27, 2006
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  12. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    This still looks well on track. Nice to see some consistent forecasting coming out of GFS! It's possible some snow will be recorded by some resorts by tommorow morning (1-2cm), and 10cm+ for Saturday, more coming Sunday to Monday [​IMG]
     
    #162 Djon, Jul 28, 2006
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  13. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Cheers Djon!

    Who will fair the best do you think? (Resort Wise)

    [​IMG]
     
    #163 Stratus, Jul 28, 2006
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  14. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Sunday looks better than it did yesterday, which is a bit of bummer for me cos it means i cant fire up the gun, but ill take it in the name of natural snowfall. 1300m also means lake mountain should be able to get some of its trails up and running finally, which is awesome for them.

    I would say 15cms in the mainstream resorts from this system, which baw baw to get an extra 5cms follow up on sunday night/monday morning.
     
  15. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    I think it looks pretty good across the board, though with Hotham/Falls doing the best eg. Sat 10cm+, Sun 10cm+, Mon 0-5cm. NSW resorts & Buller could get a little less due to being further north east or lower elevation, and Baw Baw perhaps half the amount, but perhaps picking up more relatively on Monday morning with the S/SW flow.

    For a change it seems as though the Vic resorts should do a little better than the NSW ones, though there should still be good falls north of the border.

    By Monday I think this will give some of the Victorian resorts a chance to open up some decent non-snowmaking terrain. Not sure if it will be quite enough though for the likes of Hotham to get the Heavenly Valley chair going as it looks pretty bare at the moment. Hopefully though it wouldn't take too much more snow after this weekend.
     
    #165 Djon, Jul 28, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  16. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    I'm not seeing that much moisture. I reckon 10-15cm total across the weekend at falls/ham, but buller, pb and thredbo get less as they are further NW and more towards the edge of the westerly stream.

    plus i think it will come down to where the rain bands eventually pop up on the radar. with a more conventionaly sw stream it's much less of a lottery as to where the moisture hits compared to the recent troughs, cut offs and ecls we've had (the bands tend to stretch across the region and hit everything, plus a bit of extra oomph thanks to the orographic effects), but i think it's still a bit early for me to be calling bigger numbers.

    i was pretty surprised by the frog's suggestion of 15cm on saturday from yesterday morning's report.

    but i'm certainly happy to eat my hat or some such if i'm wrong.
     
  17. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Most important thing is that we should get some nice drifting snow on the weekend - and from the west for a change.
     
  18. Megs

    Megs Hard Yards

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Is it wrong that I am not seeing too much by way of rain over to the west?? Am I being just a little bit twitchy because I just threw my skis into the ski rack??
     
  19. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Stop twitching, get in the car and drive.
     
    #169 rossi, Jul 28, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  20. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    adelaide and surrounds had very little over night. this isn't entirely indicative of what to expect as the moisture we want is coming out of the south, not the west.
     
  21. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    Fizzer. Move on to the next thread! [​IMG]
     
    #171 Stratus, Jul 29, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  22. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: July 24th-29th (Predictions & Discussion)

    fizzzzzaaaaaahhhhhhh.