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Predictions July 29- August 1st System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 22, 2014.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC has looked ok for this system for a few runs now.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    At the risk of a little pre-frontal for elevations below 1600m, but this should provide a solid top-up IMO

    Note that GFS is yet to jump on board. I expect that will change in the next couple of runs.
     
    FourSquare04 likes this.
  2. Adricat

    Adricat Addicted

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    Watching with interest. @Thredbo for 10 days from 1 Aug.
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS starting to get interested on the 18UTC run
    IMO

    [​IMG]
     
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  4. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    wrong thread boys

    [Mod note: posts moved to the 23-26 July thread. CC]
     
    #4 Donza, Jul 22, 2014
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 22, 2014
  5. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Looking at this
    [​IMG]
     
  6. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Maybe a conventional polar blast

    [​IMG]
     
  7. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Spag plot doesn't really suggest another snowpocalypse from what I can see? Looks like it peaks early, and also the blue 5760m thickness line doesn't push up very far.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  8. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Yeah, but EC has been on fire this season so far, picking system after system from 10+ days out, so I'd be putting my $ on it....

    Holy smokes that looks like whopper on the 12UTC run......and the 00UTC run says......a lot flatter:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Give it a day or two and we'll see what the next few runs bring.....
     
  9. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Spag has said yes before EC for our last big systems. That is a sig point of difference IMO.

    Not saying it won't happen though
     
  10. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    @ perisher from the 1st august. fingers crossed!
     
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  11. nisstrust

    nisstrust One of Us

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    What? this morning run access and EC have gone to ground?
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looking like just a clipper on this morning's EC run
    IMO

    [​IMG]
     
  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    IMO this weekend's outcome is stuffing up the models beyond ..
     
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  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS suggesting it's slipped out to the 31st.

    [​IMG]
     
  15. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    ill have a pint of that then
     
  16. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Couldn't agree more
     
  17. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Big upgrade on EC for Thursday on the latest run
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    For sure IMO
    Pushing out to the 1st, but starting a day later. Looking moderately big.
     
  19. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 12UTC Update.
    [​IMG]
    Not much left by 1st IMO. Pressure too high, rain shadow from Tassie.
    [​IMG]
     
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  20. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Looks great on EC this morning, but AXS doesn't want a bar of it. Seems like about the right time for another system to push through.
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS (12 UTC run)

    [​IMG]
     
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  22. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO this is far from set in concrete. However, runs in the last two days certainly have pushed the dates back a day or so.
    I think it will firm up (one way or another) after current system is through.
     
  24. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    likelihood of a moderate snowfalls are improving however still 7 days off so still room to swing either way.
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  26. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    20-30cm Claude? Quick in and out system unless it gets cut off?
     
  27. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    And then some IMO Mick. Looks intense for a day or two if it comes off like EC currently predicts
     
  28. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The whole systems is developing. Just think from around 25th June we have had back to back fronts until around the 18th July. we have a stable period where the highs are dominating. The lows will come back in early August.
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Wouldn't want to call it right now. At this stage, those numbers look about right, perhaps a bit more. IMO
     
  30. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah certainly in the realms of reality for a moderate fall if it doesn't cut off. Like the shape on 30/31st on EC. Good NW'ly for heavy snow. Looks proper cold also. IMO
     
  31. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Latest spag for comparison, looks better IMO

    [​IMG]
     
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  32. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I figure that prominent node in the South Atlantic is what is driving some of the ambitious long range forecasting. Either that or they reverted to a simple day count.
     
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  33. nisstrust

    nisstrust One of Us

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    Spag for 240hrs out, Sat 2nd please?
     
  34. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Latest run of ACCESS has it pushing up late Wed. Starting to look good :)
     
  35. zar

    zar One of Us

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    Weird synoptic setups this winter, the coldest surges bypassing Tasmania every time on their ne trajectory to the Alps. No wonder it is so warm here, this winter.
     
  36. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    AXS looks like a better setup than GFS, but the latter has more moisture progged. Odd. In any case this is shaping up nicely. Not another Snowmageddon by any means but will keep August ticking along nicely.
     
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  37. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    imo axs g looks fantastic,if it holds up we might see more low level snow :)
     
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  38. zar

    zar One of Us

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    Maybe, but only 1 day. One day wonder.
    Nothing is ever persistent anymore.
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    06 UTC GFS
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Looks very cold.
    But perhaps not much juice.

    IMO

    [​IMG]
     
  40. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Woah that fetch is insane! Defs on for low level stuff. Hopefully it can find some extra juice, 20-30 at those temps would be amazing.
     
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  41. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    how are we looking for friday? models suggest moisture gone?
     
  42. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 12UTC update
    [​IMG]
     
  43. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Kinda meh and zonal on this mornings runs. GFS seems to think a high will drop into a hole, which just happens to be the hole we want it to drop in to, and then it's party time. Not disputing that this might actually happen, but the zonal flow before doesnt really open up a slot for it to fall in to.
     
  44. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Its not really zonal. Its just a very deep low at 935 at 60' South.

    Incredible fetch.

    [​IMG]
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO still looking ok on 18UTC GFS

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    EC looks kinda flat.
    Models are still far from settled, with quite dramatic changes between runs.
     
  46. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Reminds me of June 2012, and 2010.
     
  47. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I would say its the opposite of flat or zonal for the southern hemi sphere. The cold pools at 700 Hpa are very nodal. I wonder what the the 500 hpa look like

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  48. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Okay Okay May be its a bit zonal next week. But only around 28 ' south in my opinion (IMO).
     
  49. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    looks blooooooody cold
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    IMO still alternating between colder / drier (afternoon run) and wetter in the morning.