Predictions July 29- August 1st System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 22, 2014.

  1. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    IMO 50 CM will fall Thursday to Friday. Look at the 4 dayer @bomber. Thats a significant westerlie air flow with a loverly little kink below Adelaide on the 10 am Thursday chart @ 974 @ 44 ' south. Its a cracker.
    [​IMG]
     
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  2. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Wind Hold Thursday . Should be sort of okay Friday.
     
  3. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good pressure on the BOM chart. Looking to bottom out around 1000hpa and stay there for around 24 hours.
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds
    for people in the North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts

    Issued at 3:14 pm EST on Monday 28 July 2014.

    Weather Situation
    A northwesterly airstream will strengthen over Victoria overnight as a cold front crosses the Bight to approach the southwest of the Sate early Tuesday. The front will then slip away to the southeast across southwestern Victoria and Bass Strait during Tuesday, with strong to gale force north to northwesterly winds across southern districts slowly contracting east during the day.

    Damaging winds around 55 to 70 km/h with peak gusts of 90 to 100 km/h are forecast to develop overnight and during Tuesday about the ranges and over coastal areas of the southern districts. The strong to gale force northwesterly winds will slowly moderate from the west later in the day.
     
  5. dr80

    dr80 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    where's Jane ? :(
     
  6. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    with Tarzan (off topic)
    i will predict wetness Wednesday - Thursday, then 15 - 30 cm of nice dry snow till Saturday.
    very windy for the ANC cup at Hotham thurs - fri.
     
  7. Blitzen

    Blitzen Hard Yards

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    Waiting a good deal of the day for Jane's call on this one.
     
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  8. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    yeah lol were is jane?? looking forward to her update.

    super looking forward to this event,baw baw should get smashed and hopefully
    ill see some snow at my place in the strezlecki rangers.imo

    heard the bom senior forecaster on the way home from work and he said
    statewide low level snow down to 500mtr

    :cheers:
     
  9. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    There is so no froth on this Japan like snow fall event.
     
  10. Yardsale

    Yardsale Part of the Furniture Moderator

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    There will be much spewing if that happens. Some nice dry snow will hopefully put a nice grippy surface on the snow. On the weekend it was a hard crust of about 5cm, but the first person to penetrate it made a big hole. The legacy of that rainy stuff late last week. Only problem is that lots of fresh snow is also going to me the surface a bit iffy.
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    That's how I see it too.
     
  12. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    You don't want to much wetness.... There was a few brown patches starting to show around perisher today. It was warm and windy and a snow killing day down low.
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Some big waves in the south Friday morning.

    [​IMG]
     
  14. Brett Gibson

    Brett Gibson One of Us

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    20M swell!!!!.....The Great whites will start washing up on the beach (IMO) :eek:
     
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  15. DaveT

    DaveT Hard Yards

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    Sharknami?
     
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  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
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  17. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Westernport bay on Thursday afternoon and again Friday morning on the high tides are going to be absolutely going off its tits.
     
  18. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Run out will be absolutely gross.
     
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  19. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dirty pits
     
  20. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    I'm i dreaming, or is the cold air pushing up out of the bight quicker then the models have put it. I'm going off the sat pic.
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC looks colder on tonight's run.
    IMO
     
  22. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Less rain more snow?
    Or same but lower level snow again?
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Just colder.
    Look at the temps for the alps on YR.no for Saturday.
    -9 for Buller, -7 Baw Baw.
     
  24. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    Is that a Westerly flow for Buller?
     
  25. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    You want wet snow so its sticks. This dry stuff falling in high wind will blow away into the nearest gully, just like the last system, leaving everything above the tree line with the same exposed bullet proof layer.
     
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  26. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bring ya woolie warms
     
  27. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm holding carveman personally responsible for this absence
     
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  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Wednesday and Thursday will be wet at Buller IMO
    Probably elsewhere too.
    On Friday and Saturday it will be mighty cold.
     
  29. datsnow

    datsnow Hard Yards

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    Any snow this Saturday for nsw resorts?
     
  30. datsnow

    datsnow Hard Yards

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    Met eye looking epic for seeing low level snow for early morning drive from sydney on sat morning
     
  31. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dat EC update.
     
  32. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    EC has the change coming through a tad earlier then past runs. Saturday looks to be a great day under the high.
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO don't like the EC update this morning.
     
  34. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Looking at the Sat pic, the front is already hitting the coast of vic. IMO I still think it coming in quicker the modelled.
     
  35. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not better Thursday?
     
  36. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    what dont u like about it claude??

    everything still looks red hot to me imo
     
  37. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    Any obs thread yet? Cause its windy in jindy this morning
     
  38. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    After this system a high rolls in for what looks like quite a few days.
     
  39. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    There are several fronts and there was always several fronts. The first few were always proged to sweep along the southern edge of the continent. The system that arrives Thursday night is currently SW of Perth.
     
  40. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could you please let us know what you don't like about it? Thanks
     
  41. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Really doesn't look like we'll get a lot of precipitation. 15cm...

    Western Tasmania looks like the place for snow!
     
  42. ladycamper

    ladycamper One of Us

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    Today til Wednesday at Hotham or Falls Creek?
     
  43. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    Windy and sometimes wet - but there is a significant cold outbreak due on Friday. 15 to 25 cm for alpine areas, and very low level snow.

    ***I've had a family emergency - apologies for not updating sooner - things are better now and forecasts will continue***

    We are in a belt of northwesterly winds, with a band of high pressure up over the interior of the country, and cold fronts sliding away. This makes it too warm for snow, and brings windy and sometimes wet conditions.

    There will be a big system though, that changes this pattern. A cold front will build south of Western Australia on Wednesday, and peak over the southeast of the country on Thursday/Friday, with a significant cold outbreak. Here are a few things about this system:

    • The cold front will cross through on Thursday afternoon and evening. An associated low pressure system will then pass just south of Tasmania, pushing a trough or second surge across Victoria/southern NSW on Friday.
    • We will see precipitation redevelop on Thursday afternoon - rapidly changing to snow in the late afternoon.
    • The front will have a weak feed of tropical moisture as it passes south of Western Australia (good for producing heavy snow) but the associated low is south of Tasmania (bad for sustained/heavy snow), BUT there is that second surge (good for sustained/heavy snow).
    • The next high quickly comes in, so it is all over by Saturday morning.
    • This brings a significant cold outbreak. Snow will fall down to at least 500 metres, across southern Victoria - and I would expect we will see falls down to 300 metres over the Melbourne area and Gippsland at one point on Friday. Tasmania can expect snow to sea level on Friday (if there is precipitation).
    More details: http://www.janesweather.com/snowforecast
     
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  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO shows Thursday wet, but warm. (remember this is showing precip totals for the previous 12 hours)
    [​IMG]

    Cold moves through very late Thursday.

    [​IMG]

    Friday is cold but dry
    [​IMG]
    Saturday it's all gone
    [​IMG]
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS (18 UTC) run looks friendlier for snow IMO

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    I just don't see that there's much moisture with this system.
     
  46. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I agree on the moisture totals Claude. Thought predictions of 50cm from a few days ago were a bit "ambitious".
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO 15-20cm.
     
  48. datsnow

    datsnow Hard Yards

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    Any chance of some more moisture making its way up Saturday?
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS suggest a dusting, EC looks pretty clear IMO.
     
  50. datsnow

    datsnow Hard Yards

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    If only that high moved off. Temps look very cold