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Predictions July 29- August 1st System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 22, 2014.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I would expect so.
     
  2. Ben Zeenees

    Ben Zeenees One of Us

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    I predict it will be OK on Friday Flat.
     
  3. Adricat

    Adricat Addicted

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    Yeah, thats what I told them. Suspect they will be looking to progress up the hill a little and as as they are very young kids (i.e. 4 years old) I will suggest that they move the lessons to Sat instead.
     
  4. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    GFS is pretty on. and Access R is not too shabby. The satellite shows an incredible fetch below Perth and Adelaide and the progression of the the system is to flow directly over the Snowy Mountains. Its not like its cold with out embedded moisture. Its just a pow event

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  5. datsnow

    datsnow Hard Yards

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    System possibly extending over into Saturday?
     
  6. datsnow

    datsnow Hard Yards

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    Good chance of seeing settled snow on southern tablelands early sat morning due to cold temps overnight and snowfall to low levels on Friday.
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    For Baw Baw, yes. Only a dusting elsewhere IMO
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Vic BOM have issued a SWW

    Severe Weather Warning for destructive winds and damaging winds
    for people in the Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts

    Issued at 11:00 am EST on Wednesday 30 July 2014.

    Weather Situation
    A strong cold front south of the Bight will move towards southwestern Victoria tonight before crossing the State during Thursday.

    Destructive winds around 80 km/h with peak gusts of 140 km/h are forecast for parts of the North East, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts above 1000 metres during tonight and Thursday. In lower lying areas gusts to 110 km/h are forecast.

    Damaging winds around 60 km/h with peak gusts of 110 km/h are forecast for the Mallee, Wimmera, North Central, South West and Central forecast districts and parts of the Northern Country forecast district.

    --

    I dare say Thursday could be troublesome for exposed lifts. IMO
     
  9. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    850 an 700 Hpa looks wetter than the surface elevations.

    I am speculating that the BOM access is giving moisture at sea level, and that most of the moisture is between 1000 and 2200m, I don't really want to be wrong cause I am planning a trip, which make me keener than the folk staying at home.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  10. datsnow

    datsnow Hard Yards

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    Will Chains be required to get to perisher around 11am Saturday?
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I doubt anyone here could give you a definitive answer on that. A bit like reading tea leaves.
     
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  12. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Actually, chains are always required to get to Perisher in winter. It's a legal requirement.

    Now, will you be required to fit the chains you a carrying on 11am on saturday? Fifty/fifty I reckon.
     
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  13. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    This ^^^^^

    Carry to avoid a potential fine.
    Put them on if you need.
     
  14. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    500HPa temps of -35c on Friday afternoon if GFS is correct. That's getting into near record territory.

    Watch out for some cyclonic wind gusts tomorrow too. As in 80+ knots.
     
  15. Mattdejong

    Mattdejong Hard Yards

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    Mountainwatch are saying nsw resorts will get more than vic, seems everyones talking about this system getting southern vic resirts, just want to know why its saying nsw will do better than vic
     
  16. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cause it's got no idea. IMO
     
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  17. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    BOM going for 150km/h wind gusts on the peaks tomorrow... Going to be a hell of a ride up here.
     
  18. snowduck

    snowduck One of Us

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    BOM forecasting snow on the highest peaks this Friday ...

    The Adelaide BOM
     
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  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO we should see snow in the Grampians, Otways, Macedon and local Melbourne ranges, and even Gippsland & higher Prom hills.
    On Friday.
     
    #269 Claude Cat, Jul 30, 2014
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2014
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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO that wind + some rain will have a nasty hair drier effect tomorrow.
     
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  22. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    NSW BOM, Friday, snow CT's to 600 M
     
  23. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    I feel we're going to have another 24 hours of carnage against the snowpack, looking at the obs thread it's going to be difficult to watch. The snow we get thursday night and friday will be slightly pyrrhic.
     
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  24. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    I predict light rain and gale force winds tomorrow at Hotham's ANC (Aust-NZ) cup. My daughter is entered for the first time and i am nervous for her.
    30 July - 1 August FIS ANC Skier-X Come and enjoy the spectacular action of some of the world's best! Cheer on your favourite Olympians as they battle it out in training on Wednesday July 30th followed by two days of racing against other locals and internationals in the 2014 FIS ANC Ski-X championships. Location: Hotham's Rider-Cross course. - See more at: http://www.mthotham.com.au/events-activities/events-calendar/#sthash.c7rsN4oA.dpuf
     
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  25. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Surprised the hairdryer wasn't out today
     
  26. datsnow

    datsnow Hard Yards

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    Bom has snow showers forecast for Saturday in Jindy! Met eye showing some very widespread falls on Friday from goulburn onwards
     
  27. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Whatever happens I get the distinct impression it is going to short and quick.
     
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  28. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    the bom has dropped the snow level to 400mtrs now for gippsland
    :)

    imo im starting to think it might be one of those close to sea level events where
    snow could fall in some very low places,once you start talking snow to 400 doesnt
    leave much room before it snows in abnormal places.

    im at 425m in the strezleckis gippsland hoping to see a little dusting?? :p

    in these south westerly cold blast set ups we always usually get at least 25mm of
    rain so there is potential for a fair cover here and across the whole range imo
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I expect widespread snow, just not a whole lot of it. 15-30cm IMO
     
  30. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    15-30cm to what elevation claude?
     
  31. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    If we could get 30cm at the majors, that would be a good result considering whats happening at the moment.

    Fingers and everything crossed
     
  32. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    30 cm would be great but unlikely 15 perhaps 5 to 10 most likely .will be interesting how cloud seeding goes this looks like an ideal event to squeeze out an extra 5 cm .maybe that's why people are saying nsw will do better.
     
  33. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Imo I cant see why 30-40cm is not the call.
    Already with the w flow resorts are picking up good moisture. The hook takes the tassie shadow out for 8 hours and as mentioned perfect system for NSW seeding.
    All IMO for perisher Thursday midday to sat midday.
     
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  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I think so too lowee.. looks decent enough ...but f..kn windy
     
  35. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    All that precip is breaking like a wave on the west coast of Tas (and a bit of Vic) and isn't forecast to penetrate much into NSW. I must say I'm a little perplexed as to why it isn't carrying through, given the SW feed - but maybe it's not W enough
     
  36. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    I just like that you've used the word 'pyrrhic' in this context :clap:
     
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  37. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    The wind means more for perisher and Antons-sponars IMO. Wish I could ride friday will be classic ozzy pow....
     
  38. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    And Bluff and Bowl....
     
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  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Could easily be down to 400m, perhaps less, Friday afternoon in Victoria IMO
     
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  40. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Vic BOM are going for snow in Omeo (650m) - which is hardly surprising.

    I'll be there Sat pm, will advise in Observations (never seen Omeo snow!)
     
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  41. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    thats mad if we get that sort of accumulation to 400mtrs lol ROFL

    i suppose the duration that the snow level stays at around the 400mtr
    mark allows this to happen imo
     
  42. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    yeah they should easily see a nice cover up there(being they will be a good 200mtr above the predicted snow line) as long as enough precip gets up that
    far.
     
  43. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Looking at the sat pic alone, the bite is full of cloud associated with the cold pool, I agree could be 30 cents plus based on that IMO
     
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  44. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    havent seen the bite this full of cold air in years,thats one pool of cold air imo
     
  45. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Off topic but ripped the bluff and bowl my last 3 runs at bobo 9 days ago, was hard pack with wind blown at 4pm in the shade and still had the Farkin time of my life with my bro, only 2 dudes in there, cookies rollin beside us as we tore it apart....
     
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  46. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Agree
     
  47. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    im in west & south gippsland,when are we thinking the coldest air would
    be passing through this area?
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    South gippy, and Otways IMO
     
  49. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It snowed in Omeo on August 10th 2005. August 12th I went skiing at Hotham. It was epic.
     
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  50. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    leaving canberra early friday morning. chances of snow between there and Jindy?