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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 22, 2014.
I would expect so.
I predict it will be OK on Friday Flat.
Yeah, thats what I told them. Suspect they will be looking to progress up the hill a little and as as they are very young kids (i.e. 4 years old) I will suggest that they move the lessons to Sat instead.
GFS is pretty on. and Access R is not too shabby. The satellite shows an incredible fetch below Perth and Adelaide and the progression of the the system is to flow directly over the Snowy Mountains. Its not like its cold with out embedded moisture. Its just a pow event
System possibly extending over into Saturday?
Good chance of seeing settled snow on southern tablelands early sat morning due to cold temps overnight and snowfall to low levels on Friday.
For Baw Baw, yes. Only a dusting elsewhere IMO
Vic BOM have issued a SWW
Severe Weather Warning for destructive winds and damaging winds
for people in the Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts
Issued at 11:00 am EST on Wednesday 30 July 2014.
A strong cold front south of the Bight will move towards southwestern Victoria tonight before crossing the State during Thursday.
Destructive winds around 80 km/h with peak gusts of 140 km/h are forecast for parts of the North East, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts above 1000 metres during tonight and Thursday. In lower lying areas gusts to 110 km/h are forecast.
Damaging winds around 60 km/h with peak gusts of 110 km/h are forecast for the Mallee, Wimmera, North Central, South West and Central forecast districts and parts of the Northern Country forecast district.
I dare say Thursday could be troublesome for exposed lifts. IMO
850 an 700 Hpa looks wetter than the surface elevations.
I am speculating that the BOM access is giving moisture at sea level, and that most of the moisture is between 1000 and 2200m, I don't really want to be wrong cause I am planning a trip, which make me keener than the folk staying at home.
Will Chains be required to get to perisher around 11am Saturday?
I doubt anyone here could give you a definitive answer on that. A bit like reading tea leaves.
Actually, chains are always required to get to Perisher in winter. It's a legal requirement.
Now, will you be required to fit the chains you a carrying on 11am on saturday? Fifty/fifty I reckon.
Carry to avoid a potential fine.
Put them on if you need.
500HPa temps of -35c on Friday afternoon if GFS is correct. That's getting into near record territory.
Watch out for some cyclonic wind gusts tomorrow too. As in 80+ knots.
Mountainwatch are saying nsw resorts will get more than vic, seems everyones talking about this system getting southern vic resirts, just want to know why its saying nsw will do better than vic
Cause it's got no idea. IMO
BOM going for 150km/h wind gusts on the peaks tomorrow... Going to be a hell of a ride up here.
BOM forecasting snow on the highest peaks this Friday ...
The Adelaide BOM
IMO we should see snow in the Grampians, Otways, Macedon and local Melbourne ranges, and even Gippsland & higher Prom hills.
IMO that wind + some rain will have a nasty hair drier effect tomorrow.
NSW BOM, Friday, snow CT's to 600 M
I feel we're going to have another 24 hours of carnage against the snowpack, looking at the obs thread it's going to be difficult to watch. The snow we get thursday night and friday will be slightly pyrrhic.
I predict light rain and gale force winds tomorrow at Hotham's ANC (Aust-NZ) cup. My daughter is entered for the first time and i am nervous for her.
30 July - 1 August FIS ANC Skier-X Come and enjoy the spectacular action of some of the world's best! Cheer on your favourite Olympians as they battle it out in training on Wednesday July 30th followed by two days of racing against other locals and internationals in the 2014 FIS ANC Ski-X championships. Location: Hotham's Rider-Cross course. - See more at: http://www.mthotham.com.au/events-activities/events-calendar/#sthash.c7rsN4oA.dpuf
Surprised the hairdryer wasn't out today
Bom has snow showers forecast for Saturday in Jindy! Met eye showing some very widespread falls on Friday from goulburn onwards
Whatever happens I get the distinct impression it is going to short and quick.
the bom has dropped the snow level to 400mtrs now for gippsland
imo im starting to think it might be one of those close to sea level events where
snow could fall in some very low places,once you start talking snow to 400 doesnt
leave much room before it snows in abnormal places.
im at 425m in the strezleckis gippsland hoping to see a little dusting??
in these south westerly cold blast set ups we always usually get at least 25mm of
rain so there is potential for a fair cover here and across the whole range imo
I expect widespread snow, just not a whole lot of it. 15-30cm IMO
15-30cm to what elevation claude?
If we could get 30cm at the majors, that would be a good result considering whats happening at the moment.
Fingers and everything crossed
30 cm would be great but unlikely 15 perhaps 5 to 10 most likely .will be interesting how cloud seeding goes this looks like an ideal event to squeeze out an extra 5 cm .maybe that's why people are saying nsw will do better.
Imo I cant see why 30-40cm is not the call.
Already with the w flow resorts are picking up good moisture. The hook takes the tassie shadow out for 8 hours and as mentioned perfect system for NSW seeding.
All IMO for perisher Thursday midday to sat midday.
I think so too lowee.. looks decent enough ...but f..kn windy
All that precip is breaking like a wave on the west coast of Tas (and a bit of Vic) and isn't forecast to penetrate much into NSW. I must say I'm a little perplexed as to why it isn't carrying through, given the SW feed - but maybe it's not W enough
I just like that you've used the word 'pyrrhic' in this context
The wind means more for perisher and Antons-sponars IMO. Wish I could ride friday will be classic ozzy pow....
And Bluff and Bowl....
Could easily be down to 400m, perhaps less, Friday afternoon in Victoria IMO
Vic BOM are going for snow in Omeo (650m) - which is hardly surprising.
I'll be there Sat pm, will advise in Observations (never seen Omeo snow!)
thats mad if we get that sort of accumulation to 400mtrs lol
i suppose the duration that the snow level stays at around the 400mtr
mark allows this to happen imo
yeah they should easily see a nice cover up there(being they will be a good 200mtr above the predicted snow line) as long as enough precip gets up that
Looking at the sat pic alone, the bite is full of cloud associated with the cold pool, I agree could be 30 cents plus based on that IMO
havent seen the bite this full of cold air in years,thats one pool of cold air imo
Off topic but ripped the bluff and bowl my last 3 runs at bobo 9 days ago, was hard pack with wind blown at 4pm in the shade and still had the Farkin time of my life with my bro, only 2 dudes in there, cookies rollin beside us as we tore it apart....
im in west & south gippsland,when are we thinking the coldest air would
be passing through this area?
South gippy, and Otways IMO
It snowed in Omeo on August 10th 2005. August 12th I went skiing at Hotham. It was epic.
leaving canberra early friday morning. chances of snow between there and Jindy?