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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 22, 2014.
I was in the cabbage garden at falls same day, epic indeed
In my 13 season at CPV the colder the front and the more southerly the less snow fell(talking NSW).They seem to pass through to quick and the cold air mass dries out to fast.Can remember 3 or for fronts over those years and all seem to give only 5-10 cm.Anyone agree?
Going to be driving to Bywong on Saturday morning, around 8 am, any chance I'll be seeing some snow on the way, perhaps near Lake George higher elevated hills ?
Stay on topic.
Weather predictions ONLY.
Hmmm.................. Agree but closer to 30 than 15. imo
Speckle forming nicely. Southerly moisture feed. Lots of pre-frontal.
IMO the pre-frontal will be clear snow.
I reckon once it get's in the Bite, the tail will wrap around and we'll get some of that back as snow. imo.
Jane's latest update, 15-25cm, snow down to 300m.
This weather system reminds me a bit of late-August 1997. Dry and warm 24c in Sydney ahead of the front, and Gippsland copped snow down to 400m with the Mt Tassie blanketed in snow for a day or two. About 20-30cm of powder in the resorts.
Snow to sea level in Tasmania according to ACCESS-R.
What do you guys think the wind and visibility will be like on Friday?? (@perisher and thredbo)
GFS upgrading but who is GFS as it has multiple personalities sometimes. I wonder how good the the Topo model is on Access R? The key to big totals is the atm stratigraphy of the precipitation, and I am betting its 1000 to 2000 m.
Unreliable, but there will be moments in between fronts around 11 and 12
Falls and hotham closed for the day by the looks. What are predecitions for wind tomorrow? Calming enough to get lifts open or another day of the same?
IMO it won't be as windy tomorrow.
May not be any pre-frontal clear snow? Temps are dropping quickly with frontal band. IMO
If we get the same temp drops as I just felt in Sandy with the change on the hills, I agree with this.
The temperature drop ahead of the rainband is fantastic. May bump us up to 20 to 30 cm (from 15 to 25 cm).
Heading up this Sunday arvo for 3 days with the clan
Any updates for Sat yet?
Bugger all snow / precip on Saturday. IMO
Very weak burst on Saturday
Yeah, thats what I figure. Any wind charts?
15knots @ 10am?
Love ya work
Assumes GFS isn't in fairlyland, but it looks ok.
Buller may do best out of this the way it looks to me atm
No negative westerly impact?
Not at -6C.
The place that will do the best will be the resort that picks up the most from the intial band.
Yeh, GFS shows two bands - one coming through now and one tomorrow afternoon. But yes, you're right which ever gets the most as the stuff moves through now will be ahead.
Certainly looks from the radar that Baw Baw is better placed than the other resorts. IMO.
Been a long time since ive posted here, but this is a baw baw system through and through. I might head up there tomorrow arvo for a look.
Go Baw Baw
Not nec disagreeing, but imo must also take into account that strange effect that happens when there is moisture around for the later half which sometimes falls as snow somewhere consistently and barely hits others close by. I have a feeling this could be just such a system.
The fetch is just to large to miss anything
Anyone at baw baw to tell us observations, looks like it puking by the cam there
Try the obs thread or maybe even the baw baw specific thread
My children are glued to the predictions.
They want to guess. 7cm one says in village at Thredbo upon waking, the other says 12cm!
Cold air taking its time to get to nsw. Any Possibility of it being pushed a day later and still keep going through nsw on Saturday? Going up to perisher this sat and hoping to see something
Is a quick system imo
Saturday will see very little. IMO
Apart from Baw Baw.
Going to take PK Jr up there Sunday for his first snow experience.
Should stay below 0c until Sunday arvo imo, which means the Canadian relos will see nice fresh snow in the pics and on trees, and not the usual Baw Baw
BoM revised snow level forecast for Vic to 400m. I know what I'm doing this afternoon!
YES YES YES
Satelite picture shows low starting to move to the SE of Tassie which should see some colder southerly air directed over the Island, and hopefully some lowering snowfall.
Stay on topic - predictions in this thread only
Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds and blizzard conditions
for people in the Mallee, Wimmera, North Central, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts
Issued at 10:05 am EST on Friday 1 August 2014.
A second cold front has now entered southwestern Victoria and will move rapidly northeastwards across the remainder of State during the afternoon with a very cold and squally southwest to southerly airflow to follow. Low level snowfalls and widespread showers with hail and thunder and wind squalls near 90 km/h are expected. A high pressure system will approach the State early on Saturday and conditions will moderate.
Damaging wind squalls with peak gusts of 90 km/h are forecast to develop over western and southern areas of the State during the day, mainly associated with showers and thunderstorms.
Blizzard conditions are forecast for Alpine areas.
The Severe Weather Warning for parts of the Northern Country and North East forecast districts has been cancelled, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings will be issued if necessary.
Wind gusts reached 87 km/h at Airey's Inlet this morning. Snow has been reported in the Otways and around the Macedon ranges.