Predictions July 29- August 1st System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jul 22, 2014.

  1. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    I was in the cabbage garden at falls same day, epic indeed :clap:
     
  2. Sago

    Sago Hard Yards

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    In my 13 season at CPV the colder the front and the more southerly the less snow fell(talking NSW).They seem to pass through to quick and the cold air mass dries out to fast.Can remember 3 or for fronts over those years and all seem to give only 5-10 cm.Anyone agree?
     
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  3. snowbrah

    snowbrah Hard Yards

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    Going to be driving to Bywong on Saturday morning, around 8 am, any chance I'll be seeing some snow on the way, perhaps near Lake George higher elevated hills ?
     
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  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  5. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hmmm.................. Agree but closer to 30 than 15. imo

    Speckle forming nicely. Southerly moisture feed. Lots of pre-frontal.

     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO the pre-frontal will be clear snow.
     
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  7. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep.
     
  8. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  9. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon once it get's in the Bite, the tail will wrap around and we'll get some of that back as snow. imo.
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  11. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    This weather system reminds me a bit of late-August 1997. Dry and warm 24c in Sydney ahead of the front, and Gippsland copped snow down to 400m with the Mt Tassie blanketed in snow for a day or two. About 20-30cm of powder in the resorts.
     
  12. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow to sea level in Tasmania according to ACCESS-R.
     
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  13. ausboarder

    ausboarder First Runs

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    What do you guys think the wind and visibility will be like on Friday?? (@perisher and thredbo)
     
  14. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    GFS upgrading but who is GFS as it has multiple personalities sometimes. I wonder how good the the Topo model is on Access R? The key to big totals is the atm stratigraphy of the precipitation, and I am betting its 1000 to 2000 m.
    [​IMG]
     
  15. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Unreliable, but there will be moments in between fronts around 11 and 12
     
  16. jorgo

    jorgo Hard Yards

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    Falls and hotham closed for the day by the looks. What are predecitions for wind tomorrow? Calming enough to get lifts open or another day of the same?
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO it won't be as windy tomorrow.
     
  18. Tasjez

    Tasjez Hard Yards

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    May not be any pre-frontal clear snow? Temps are dropping quickly with frontal band. IMO
     
  19. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    If we get the same temp drops as I just felt in Sandy with the change on the hills, I agree with this.
     
  20. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    The temperature drop ahead of the rainband is fantastic. May bump us up to 20 to 30 cm (from 15 to 25 cm).
     
  21. Ski Tragic

    Ski Tragic Hard Yards

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    Luv this
    Heading up this Sunday arvo for 3 days with the clan
     
  22. Adricat

    Adricat Addicted

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    Any updates for Sat yet?
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Bugger all snow / precip on Saturday. IMO

    Progression:

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Very weak burst on Saturday
    [​IMG]
     
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  24. Adricat

    Adricat Addicted

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    Yeah, thats what I figure. Any wind charts?
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Saturday?

    [​IMG]

    15knots @ 10am?
     
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  26. Adricat

    Adricat Addicted

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    Love ya work
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Assumes GFS isn't in fairlyland, but it looks ok.
     
  28. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Buller may do best out of this the way it looks to me atm
     
  29. absentskier

    absentskier Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    No negative westerly impact?
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not at -6C.

    IMO
     
  31. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    The place that will do the best will be the resort that picks up the most from the intial band.
     
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  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, GFS shows two bands - one coming through now and one tomorrow afternoon. But yes, you're right which ever gets the most as the stuff moves through now will be ahead.
     
  33. Cham

    Cham One of Us

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    ^^Baw Baw
     
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  34. absentskier

    absentskier Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Certainly looks from the radar that Baw Baw is better placed than the other resorts. IMO.
     
  35. toddles

    toddles Hard Yards

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    Been a long time since ive posted here, but this is a baw baw system through and through. I might head up there tomorrow arvo for a look.
     
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  36. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

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  37. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not nec disagreeing, but imo must also take into account that strange effect that happens when there is moisture around for the later half which sometimes falls as snow somewhere consistently and barely hits others close by. I have a feeling this could be just such a system.
     
  38. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The fetch is just to large to miss anything
    [​IMG]
     
  39. Mattdejong

    Mattdejong Hard Yards

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    Anyone at baw baw to tell us observations, looks like it puking by the cam there
     
  40. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Try the obs thread or maybe even the baw baw specific thread
     
  41. winter

    winter One of Us Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    My children are glued to the predictions.
    They want to guess. 7cm one says in village at Thredbo upon waking, the other says 12cm!
     
  42. datsnow

    datsnow Hard Yards

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    Cold air taking its time to get to nsw. Any Possibility of it being pushed a day later and still keep going through nsw on Saturday? Going up to perisher this sat and hoping to see something
     
  43. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is a quick system imo
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Saturday will see very little. IMO
    Apart from Baw Baw.
     
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  45. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Going to take PK Jr up there Sunday for his first snow experience.
    Should stay below 0c until Sunday arvo imo, which means the Canadian relos will see nice fresh snow in the pics and on trees, and not the usual Baw Baw ;)
     
  46. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    BoM revised snow level forecast for Vic to 400m. I know what I'm doing this afternoon!
     
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  47. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    YES YES YES
     
  48. Tasjez

    Tasjez Hard Yards

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    Satelite picture shows low starting to move to the SE of Tassie which should see some colder southerly air directed over the Island, and hopefully some lowering snowfall.
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic - predictions in this thread only
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds and blizzard conditions
    for people in the Mallee, Wimmera, North Central, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts

    Issued at 10:05 am EST on Friday 1 August 2014.

    Weather Situation
    A second cold front has now entered southwestern Victoria and will move rapidly northeastwards across the remainder of State during the afternoon with a very cold and squally southwest to southerly airflow to follow. Low level snowfalls and widespread showers with hail and thunder and wind squalls near 90 km/h are expected. A high pressure system will approach the State early on Saturday and conditions will moderate.

    Damaging wind squalls with peak gusts of 90 km/h are forecast to develop over western and southern areas of the State during the day, mainly associated with showers and thunderstorms.

    Blizzard conditions are forecast for Alpine areas.

    The Severe Weather Warning for parts of the Northern Country and North East forecast districts has been cancelled, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings will be issued if necessary.

    Wind gusts reached 87 km/h at Airey's Inlet this morning. Snow has been reported in the Otways and around the Macedon ranges.