Predictions July 3-5

Discussion in 'Weather' started by skimax, Jun 25, 2017.

  1. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    Mmm
     
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  2. almontyrat

    almontyrat Well-Known Member
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    Is that a prediction Skimax or just wishful thinking?
     
  3. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]

    EC doesn't look that bad for this period.
    GFS doesn't agree with this.
     
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  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  5. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    Wait and see, big clipper
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Looks a bit better on the 00z run. Risky set-up though. The swing in the models @240 hours suggests downgraded to a clipper. But for now... 10cm in it IMO.
    [​IMG]
    GFS reckons it's nothing but a twinkle in the eye.
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah looks much better than the 12Z run. Big upgrade in moisture for EC for this system. Needs to hang in there for at least a few days to hold any weight IMO.
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC staying with it for the 3-5th July. There's potential for a front/trough follow up on the 5th too.
     
  9. loweee

    loweee Dedicated Member

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    Interesting grasshopper v frog predictions looking forward.
    I am still preferring ec set up which supprisingly mirrors the frooog.
     
  10. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Vibe is minty
     
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  11. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    I worry about the ridging. Polar charts arent really showing too much to get excited about at the moment. The models are really losing it after about +120 and this is still outside that range so there's a lot of room for movement.
     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS upgrades 3/4JUL system. Pressure, precip are a green light, I reckon, ridging still at risk.
    I think this is a day or two from being locked in IMO.
     
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  13. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    I'm worried about the baggage retrieval system they've got at Heathrow. Think moist
     
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  14. Wardy

    Wardy Well-Known Member

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    Cold westerlys. First real positive chart of the season.
     
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  15. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Like. Upgrades pressure , gradient , precip , fetch.....
    Looks great , and yes still a way off.
    Steady as she goes .
     
  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Clipper - Tassie special.
     
  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    These folks certainly not liking it.
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Try a coupla days ahead of that...
    Here's apples and apples:
    [​IMG]
    or:
    [​IMG]
     
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  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    My bad -still a bit meh hPa wise though.
     
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  20. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Spotted this time period a while ago and it got my interest , still interested is what I say. Predicting at the minute 20 - 30 cms.
     
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  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Zonals could be a lot worse though.
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    1004hPa is a lot better than this morning's run (1016hPa). It's heading in the right direction.
    Ensembles are being safe, based on the last few weeks IMO.
     
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  23. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Yep- based on initial conditions.
     
  24. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    She's apples.

    [​IMG]
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Looking great on EC. Upgrade after upgrade. Right direction.
    [​IMG]
     
  26. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    snap.
    Been there for a while now in one form or another.
     
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  27. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Cold Minty (get with it !!) anomalies in the Uppers too.
    [​IMG]
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Follow-up on the 5th still there too.
     
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  29. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Really intensifies as it drifts out across the Tasman.
    Look out unzud !

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I am not on my Accuweather account until later tonight, but I'd expect that sort of prog (YrNo update @ 6pm) to throw up totals around 25-35cm IMO.
    *purely speculating until then.
     
  31. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    GFS now showing nicely stacked vorticity to 500. An upgrade in PWAT would be nice.
     
  32. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yes the moisture is the achilles heel this year.
    Was always going to be with Nino teetering but more so the +SOI.
    So noob question.
    The vorticity relates to shear / instability.
    I see you look closely and refer to it in a lot of your obs.
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Season starter... (Perisher).
     
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  34. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Is actually a downgrade from this morns precip totals iirc

    Still minty though ;)
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Progression looks good as it draws in some sub-trop moisture on the way through (3rd).
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Upgrade in depth of cold air, lower pressure & Vort. In turn, supportive of greater fall totals.
     
  37. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    25-30cm on EC right now.
     
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  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Nice hook on the canucks, but not that strong IMO

    [​IMG]
     
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  39. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    For vorticity to increase you need increase in convergence- that we like = deeper Low
     
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  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  41. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Aaaah Sooo !
    Penny is dropping , albeit sloooowly ! ;)
     
  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    OK Now i like it.
     
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  43. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Frog is 50% of the time as he is a guesser, or he reads the forums
     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    As it stands, one could expect extensive wind hold on Monday AM IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Just don't look at the 06Z too closely.;)
     
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  46. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    About time some of you got onboard with this 1 ;);););):thumbs::thumbs::thumbs:
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    it's not terrible, but signs of ridging there IMO
     
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  48. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    I don't have the technical knowledge that some here have ( I will freely and gladly admit that fact ) and the ability of some here to analyse is first class , something I , who makes his living from the land, truly appreciate. I am learning a great deal reading what is posted in these forums. To you guys , cheers.:thumbs::thumbs::thumbs::thumbs::thumbs:.
    However I liked the shape and emerging position of this one right from the get go , maybe it will come through with a result , maybe not but its not often something that far out gets me interested. Moisture is a problem but I am getting more and more confident that it will be an ok result.
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    A lack of moisture in June has been heavily influenced by dominant highs; rendering the tail-end of systems (or 'clippers'); dry. The systems that have managed to brush the SE states, with the exception partly of Tasmania, have seen downgrade, after downgrade of moisture 4-5 days out. Model skill and large polar/tropics anomalies can share the blame here as far as I am concerned.

    For me, I keep an eye on the 700-400mb RH progs as a good indicator of good falls. 700-400mb is where much of the mid-latitude weather (or in this case; moisture) sits in the atmosphere. A moist 80-100% RH in this prog will translate to decent rain/snowfalls.

    The 3-5JUL system is not immune to the downgrades outlined above. You can see the influence of dry air advection between the 00Z & 06Z GFS runs today: 00Z run has good moisture levels running high into the atmosphere over Vic & the Alps, conversely 06Z run suggests the ridging High brings the dry, air in close behind and further south keeping the good falls over Bass Strait and Tas which indicates a downgrade (at least it does to me).
    As CC has pointed out the ridging of the High has imposed this dry air advection on the 06Z run.

    00Z GFS (reasonably good moisture)
    [​IMG]
    06Z GFS (not as good)
    [​IMG]
     
    #50 POW_hungry, Jun 26, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2017