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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by skimax, Jun 25, 2017.
Is that a prediction Skimax or just wishful thinking?
EC doesn't look that bad for this period.
GFS doesn't agree with this.
Wait and see, big clipper
Looks a bit better on the 00z run. Risky set-up though. The swing in the models @240 hours suggests downgraded to a clipper. But for now... 10cm in it IMO.
GFS reckons it's nothing but a twinkle in the eye.
yr no i like
https://www.yr.no/en/list/daily/2-8219816/Australia/New South Wales/Snowy River/Perisher Village
Yeah looks much better than the 12Z run. Big upgrade in moisture for EC for this system. Needs to hang in there for at least a few days to hold any weight IMO.
EC staying with it for the 3-5th July. There's potential for a front/trough follow up on the 5th too.
Interesting grasshopper v frog predictions looking forward.
I am still preferring ec set up which supprisingly mirrors the frooog.
Vibe is minty
I worry about the ridging. Polar charts arent really showing too much to get excited about at the moment. The models are really losing it after about +120 and this is still outside that range so there's a lot of room for movement.
GFS upgrades 3/4JUL system. Pressure, precip are a green light, I reckon, ridging still at risk.
I think this is a day or two from being locked in IMO.
I'm worried about the baggage retrieval system they've got at Heathrow. Think moist
Cold westerlys. First real positive chart of the season.
Like. Upgrades pressure , gradient , precip , fetch.....
Looks great , and yes still a way off.
Steady as she goes .
Clipper - Tassie special.
These folks certainly not liking it.
Try a coupla days ahead of that...
Here's apples and apples:
My bad -still a bit meh hPa wise though.
Spotted this time period a while ago and it got my interest , still interested is what I say. Predicting at the minute 20 - 30 cms.
Zonals could be a lot worse though.
1004hPa is a lot better than this morning's run (1016hPa). It's heading in the right direction.
Ensembles are being safe, based on the last few weeks IMO.
Yep- based on initial conditions.
Looking great on EC. Upgrade after upgrade. Right direction.
Been there for a while now in one form or another.
Cold Minty (get with it !!) anomalies in the Uppers too.
Follow-up on the 5th still there too.
Really intensifies as it drifts out across the Tasman.
Look out unzud !
I am not on my Accuweather account until later tonight, but I'd expect that sort of prog (YrNo update @ 6pm) to throw up totals around 25-35cm IMO.
*purely speculating until then.
GFS now showing nicely stacked vorticity to 500. An upgrade in PWAT would be nice.
Yes the moisture is the achilles heel this year.
Was always going to be with Nino teetering but more so the +SOI.
So noob question.
The vorticity relates to shear / instability.
I see you look closely and refer to it in a lot of your obs.
Season starter... (Perisher).
Is actually a downgrade from this morns precip totals iirc
Still minty though
Progression looks good as it draws in some sub-trop moisture on the way through (3rd).
Upgrade in depth of cold air, lower pressure & Vort. In turn, supportive of greater fall totals.
25-30cm on EC right now.
Nice hook on the canucks, but not that strong IMO
For vorticity to increase you need increase in convergence- that we like = deeper Low
Aaaah Sooo !
Penny is dropping , albeit sloooowly !
OK Now i like it.
Frog is 50% of the time as he is a guesser, or he reads the forums
As it stands, one could expect extensive wind hold on Monday AM IMO.
Just don't look at the 06Z too closely.
About time some of you got onboard with this 1
it's not terrible, but signs of ridging there IMO
I don't have the technical knowledge that some here have ( I will freely and gladly admit that fact ) and the ability of some here to analyse is first class , something I , who makes his living from the land, truly appreciate. I am learning a great deal reading what is posted in these forums. To you guys , cheers..
However I liked the shape and emerging position of this one right from the get go , maybe it will come through with a result , maybe not but its not often something that far out gets me interested. Moisture is a problem but I am getting more and more confident that it will be an ok result.
A lack of moisture in June has been heavily influenced by dominant highs; rendering the tail-end of systems (or 'clippers'); dry. The systems that have managed to brush the SE states, with the exception partly of Tasmania, have seen downgrade, after downgrade of moisture 4-5 days out. Model skill and large polar/tropics anomalies can share the blame here as far as I am concerned.
For me, I keep an eye on the 700-400mb RH progs as a good indicator of good falls. 700-400mb is where much of the mid-latitude weather (or in this case; moisture) sits in the atmosphere. A moist 80-100% RH in this prog will translate to decent rain/snowfalls.
The 3-5JUL system is not immune to the downgrades outlined above. You can see the influence of dry air advection between the 00Z & 06Z GFS runs today: 00Z run has good moisture levels running high into the atmosphere over Vic & the Alps, conversely 06Z run suggests the ridging High brings the dry, air in close behind and further south keeping the good falls over Bass Strait and Tas which indicates a downgrade (at least it does to me).
As CC has pointed out the ridging of the High has imposed this dry air advection on the 06Z run.
00Z GFS (reasonably good moisture)
06Z GFS (not as good)