Predictions July 3-5

Discussion in 'Weather' started by skimax, Jun 25, 2017.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    still good for 20-30cm snow above 1800m Tomorrow/Wednesday IMO.
    Sucks to be below this though...

    Friday still looks good for 5-10cm though.
     
    #451 POW_hungry, Jul 4, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2017
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  2. jonathanc

    jonathanc Dedicated Member

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    Looking at Wednesday on Access-R the thickness doesn't look to be there for NSW. Looks okay for some of the Vic resorts though?
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Tomorrow is looking like a similar story to today in terms of resort temps, the difference is we see better Upper Level temps, meaning snow falling a little lower.
    Before everyone assumes big resort dumps tomorrow, I think it's realistic to see snow down to 1700m. Expect good falls in the Main Range and even between Hotham and Falls IMO.

    Just thought I'd balance a little of the hoe-hum in the obs thread - even if it is just my 2 cents.
     
  4. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz Active Member

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    Please don't let it be true
     
  5. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    IMO a level more realism was required by some from the outset. A few got caught up in the lack of snow and the hope for a season starter, which at one stage a week or so ago this almost looked like.
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Things (chiefly temps) changed the moment this thing peaked over WA on saturday and not in the bight.
    You simply can't expect a system to deliver snow to low levels of SW WA and bring dramatic falls to the East Coast, without marginal temps. It would have to be an extraordinary event and system.

    TBH I think many 'accepted' the progged falls going into last weekend, but I can't say I am surprised at the temps since the goal posts were moved.
     
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  7. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    yep. props to @Claude Cat who picked it like a dirty nose.
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    That said, I still think this thing has legs... just not going to offer much below 1700m, which sucks for most of VIC.
     
  9. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    This. IMO all these 'hopecasts' of massive dumps and 'season starters' need to be brought back a level.

    All of these social media-ites have looked at the charts and have immediately jumped to conclusions thinking that there's going to be a massive season starting dump when the reality of the situation is we have low pressure, ok yes fair enough but a distinct lack of conveyor belt fronts coming through and unfortunately, slightly higher temps with a cut off scenario moving further north and not exactly being in an 'ideal' place to produce large amounts of snow.

    Certainly not a season starter that forecasts were suggesting / praying for IMO
     
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  10. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    It's looked pretty underwhelming from temp point of view for a week.
     
  11. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael Dedicated Member

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    This event is about tonight and tomorrow
    It was always marginal through Monday Tuesday
    Lets talk Thursday morning
     
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  12. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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    Which is why its good to avoid the weather threads while SDS is still active.
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Oops
     
  14. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

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    Any hope left in this system for the rest of today, overnight into tomorrow? Looking grim so far IMO.

    Edit: I just now read the above posts, so I won't be holding my breath.
     
  15. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    I'd be shelving stirling if I was in your shoes.
     
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  16. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

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    Yeah, I was leaning that way. Thanks.
     
  17. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz Active Member

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    What do you mean
     
  18. telecrag

    telecrag Part of the Furniture
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    Its snowing at Merritts.
     
  19. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

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    He means it would be worth holding off on my trip to Mt Stirling tomorrow, as there's a very low likelihood of actually having skiable snow.
     
  20. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    Where you been tc? It's been snowing at Merritts intermittently all morning.
    Wrong thread too.;)
     
    #470 PMG, Jul 4, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2017
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  21. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael Dedicated Member

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    We'll see what happens from hereon in
    To be fair to me my comment on temps as always in Australian terms related to net accumulation of snow
    TBH I wasn't even contemplating Monday Tuesday as snow days
     
    #471 Call_me_Ishmael, Jul 4, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2017
  22. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Wednesdays uppers look a lot better on Access R than GFS.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  23. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Monday / Tuesday could have been a lot better and or worse IMO. Slight gain form the look of it.
     
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  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Friday looks good for some low level flakes with a broad cold band in the uppers.

    [​IMG]
     
  25. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Just be thankful the precipitation volumes are at the low end of expectations thus far... it is however allowed to ramp up considerably overnight.
    A SC read on thursday of anything near 40cm will be a bonus.
     
  26. Bloke

    Bloke Dedicated Member

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  27. Call_me_Ishmael

    Call_me_Ishmael Dedicated Member

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  28. jonathanc

    jonathanc Dedicated Member

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    That looks a lot nicer than last run!
     
  29. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    looks good. would be a very good result.
     
  30. Arsas

    Arsas Active Member

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    MW 2:30pm run for Perisher has downgraded tomorrow from 27+cm to 14cm but FL have lowered quite a bit.
     
  31. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    I expect another night of rain. It's warm. The uppers must be a tad warm as little of the precip is falling as snow.
     
  32. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    All up its still looking great. It could be 2006 so anything is a good thing. The uppers hopefully will hang in there above 1700 m tonight an deliver some cold air tomorrow. Satellite is building up again.

    [​IMG]
     
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  33. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Convergence at 00z- 850hPa not blowing my hair back.
     

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  34. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    I guess i am biased to the snowies, but i like how the -28 c contour @ 500 Hpa Cold pool crosses over the MTS on Friday Morning, and not north like some more intensive LWT intrusions.

    Waiting.............

    [​IMG]
     
  35. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    GFS is a bit average at the moment and Access R is acing it.
     
  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    We need solid a Convergence/ Divergence balance to equate to good falls .The Wyoming Uni plots (GFS) Divergence/ Vertical Velocity have been spot on.
     
  37. Olgreg

    Olgreg Dedicated Member
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    Don't mention that season 11 years ago
     
  38. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    More snow for W.A. again tomorrow. twice in a week, better then Buller.
     
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  39. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Slight downgrade for Perisher

    Forecast for the rest of Tuesday
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Snow showers. Windy.
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 50 to 60 km/h.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Wednesday 5 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 4
    Snow showers. Wind easing.
    Possible rainfall: 20 to 35 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds west to northwesterly 35 to 55 km/h becoming westerly 15 to 25 km/h in the evening.
     
  40. SnowBound

    SnowBound Dedicated Member

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    I can't believe that was 11 years ago...

    Jees time flies.
     
  41. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Axsr > gfs imo
     
  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    GFS Skew-T was accurate for last nights precips was it not ?
     
  43. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz Active Member

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    Are we still hoping for the forecasted 30cm tonight or are we looking at one very soggy hill tomorrow?
    P.S what is the expected snow line tonight
     
  44. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie Active Member

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    If the temps can drop a degree or so then that growing blob entering western Victoria looks set to deliver.
     
  45. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz Active Member

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    The Question is what does this mean for Perisher
     
  46. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie Active Member

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    If it's cold enough then lots of snow, if not then more of the last two days.
     
  47. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

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    Is it likely Buller/Stirling will finally receive a decent amount of snow overnight? Jane and Grasshopper seem to concur.
     
  48. North Sydney bears

    North Sydney bears New Member

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    I can tell you that so far nothing. Here in smiggins it's intermittent sleet- wind blow tiny flakes- rain.
     
  49. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz Active Member

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    So, there is precipitaion but, it is R#$n
     
  50. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I guess 5-10cm for Buller tomorrow, it should get cold enough about lunchtime.