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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by skimax, Jun 25, 2017.
Call it "Two Foot Storm".
Not many ever predict a 2ft storm here, They just come . lol
Mixing weather systems is like mixing your drinks. They all have their own intricacies! Rule 1 in offshore prediction.
Maybe this where EC was loading up the back end of next week with its OTT totals.
out of date range here.
GFS has it coming thru a day or so earlier *216.
Moist Westerly flow on Thursday, Friday on EC. But TBH I am bit of a skeptic until I see it still there on Monday - uppers after Wednesday dry out a lot, I see it fading.
But yep the 8-10th appears on all majors now, albeit a day later on GFS. The EC & CMC alliance seems strong of late.
Monday night still looking like a blizzard above 1600m
Temps on Tuesday looking pretty marginal below 1600m IMO.
I agree. Hmmmm. Below 1600m could be less than ideal
I reckon temps look good. Pretty cold uppers on Monday/Tuesday.
12Z EC's proggin' 2C/-6/-22 @ 10am Tuesdee. Above 1600-1700m looks fine.
I'm seeing about -28C at 500mb. On AXS though, but you cant always rely on 1 model.
This is GFS's prog for Thredbo Tuesday PM. 1C/-6/-22C
I am not seeing much that blows my hair back. Nice dry level inversion too with all the moisture below 3k. Yay.
Looks like AXS is a bit out on its own then. I like the polar charts though, big blue nodes coming our way. I think a lot of what happens is going to depend on how hard it hits SW WA.
100% agree. It's a decent incursion into SW WA.
5400dam brushes Kalgoorlie! Looks solid on the 500mb.
Jane is saying 30-60cm for next week, but could be 1mtr in places
Favours more northerly resorts, in partic nsw. Baw Baw to largely miss out
I can see 40cm above 1700 in nsw for this date range alone
Thredbo's Guy dude is a conservative one, going for 10-15cm early next week (and that was posted 2 days ago when it was looking better...)
And they're just Tuesday.....
Yep, I think Tuesday's still the business-end of this system, particularly the morning of. I still like it for 20-30cm above 1600m IMO - and have for some days now.
This thread is giving me anxiety.
Just snow FFS!
Tuesday it is then 1ft.
20-30cm over the date range (3-5JUL).
going by the latest forecast, this could stretch out a day or two - synoptic optimistic on wz indicates so as does local projections. Doing the base camp from Thursday 6th for a week...
I still can't like this set up. I don't like the cut off in the Bight one bit. Could be an epic 10-15cm fizzer IMO. I want it to be Jane's 40-80cm week, but I'll remain unconvinced until it crosses the Bight and we can see what's left in it after that.
If the models are to be believed:
1/ The date range of this particular thread needs to be extended to at least the 10th
2/ Jane is being conservative; there's 4' (1.22m) of snow on its way
/end DSNS hopecast
Gotta be conservative if one is to seriously consider your first line, and with caution. The back end of the week is FAR from locked in.
When it comes to talking 'totals' it's muddying the water forsure.
I'm allowed 1 big call a season.
I predict the whinging will change from 'no snow' to 'wind hold' whinging in the coming days.
I guess I am just suggesting that someone like Jane, being a pro-forecaster, needs a level of conservatism up until 3-4 days out. I bet she'll want to see Monday play out before she locks in the back half of the week. Seems wise to me.
This is a cut-off system after all.
Well, if you cut yes/nahh in half it's still on for 64.4cm at Perisher. Great total. 128cm over the next nine days (detailed forecast) is Pixiland stuff, though I would love to be wrong.
Sometimes the pixies win.
Anyone notice the WZ Saturday, Monday and Wednesday charts??
Eat... Sleep.... Low .... repeat
It may not happen in this date range but its happening IMO.
Too much happening below South Africa and a big gap between trailing Highs.
Something will hit and it will be big. Hoping for a 20cm initial pulse followed by 2 follow ups of 30cm plus. IMO
Can I say I disagree without causing a circus. The cut off low on Monday is linked to the the broader LWT cold Pool. IMO its a typical winter pattern and the date range could be pushed out to the 9th or 10th.
Bring on the good vibes and a Dollars worth of white fluff. Gosh we need it.
I agree. System like this should be dated on the Node/Pulse rather than single fronts/lows.
The next 10 Days are vibe-ing hard. Trying to split it out between fronts is a major headache or maybe not CC?
The models do tend to interfere with the vibe.
Along these lines. ^
I was thinking a day or so back it was to be the Truck and dog.
I'd probably agree with you if they were the same node, but they're not...
I am not into forecasting totals 7 days ahead - it's like saying I love you to your first crush, it'll guarantee to break hearts.
Right now, I reckon the 9th is looking like a dud. Anyone looked at that sub-trop jet? It's lookin' like a clipper and gonna scoot it south farkn quick, as it stands.
There will be 1m+ but in wind drifts, the resorts will still claim it though
You can bet your black ass Perisher and Thredbo will get snowfall in 5cm increments.
9th... not looking fantastic, yet.
It's predominately cold, dry atmos and the jet is unsupportive of any sort of cold outbreak during that time.
BTW, I couldn't care less if the date range is extended but if you're gonna date range the LWT might as well make every prediction thread a week to two week calls... Go for your life, I am sure you'll have an epic strike rate and confuse the hell out of everyone here.
More often than not, its the Dog that does the damage, especially when running doubles
This one's unique. Since when does it snow every day for a week in Oz ? The potential for that is there IMO.
I'm seeing a least 3 lows squeezing under the Trailing High?
As we saw a few years back, if the leading 2 lows push north with enough grunt, the progression of the trailing High backtracks and stalls and lets another couple sneak through. When this happens, Low 3 hits the best and front 4 gives an ice cold 10cm top up.
Disclaimer: I am running on historical knowledge rather than the models.
As I mentioned above, it may not happen in this date range but if not, it looks in line to hit just after. Hence my agreement in considering extending the date. Whoever tagged this one deserves cred IMO
I'd love to be interfered with by a model.
Nah, too shallow and not enough moisture