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Predictions July 3-5

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by skimax, Jun 25, 2017.

  1. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well, compared to watching big jellyfish highs for the past month, it's wonderful to be arguing whether we have 1 big snow system or 3-4 little ones :)
     
    nfip, Ozgirl, woggybot and 5 others like this.
  2. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well said.

    I've got skin in the game on this one. The crew is booking to slide Thursday. Unfortunately I wont be with them. Business is too slow.
     
  3. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I, along with probably many other peeps, am watching this thread with bated breath.

    Loving your work guys, keep it up :thumbs:
     
  4. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Weather > no weather.
     
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  5. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hi POW, normally I agree... but the first shift of the system is hard to pick so my main OB is to give credit to The, who had picked it.

    Once the rotation establishes itself, picking front for front is fairly easy. Its the shift that matters..

    We know that Early winter rotation runs at 5.5 weeks in a good early season and then hits 5 weeks for early July BUT the big stuff hits when the lows start lapping AA at 4.5 to 4 weeks.

    Weather forced gravitational waves?

    Its the rotation speed that matters IMO
     
    #305 The Fallen, Jun 30, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2017
  6. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  7. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Starting to see a maybe possible good thing for early July , somewhere 3rd to 6th. Along way off I know and I will leave it to the better credentialed people but........................it always pays to be positive. Maybe it will become a thing , maybe not.


    So hoping next week comes off. I have always been positive about it , old man farmers eye LOLLOLLOLLOL
     
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  8. Bien E

    Bien E Hard Yards

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    BoM liking Monday Tuesday Precip for Perisher upgrade from yesterdays forecast
     
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  9. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM has upped the anti for Hotham

    Monday 3 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 1
    Snow showers. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 5 to 15 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers. Winds northerly 30 to 40 km/h increasing to 40 to 50 km/h during the morning then tending northwesterly 30 to 40 km/h during the afternoon.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Tuesday 4 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max -1
    Snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 10 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 30 to 35 km/h.

    Wednesday 5 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max -1
    Snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 5 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 25 to 30 km/h tending westerly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.

    Thursday 6 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max -1
    Snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 6 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 20 to 25 km/h tending northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h during the morning.

    Friday 7 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max -1
    Snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 8 mm
    Chance of any rain: 50% [​IMG]
    anti for Hotham
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00Z throwing it all on black for the 9th with a ball-tearer snow-mageddon. Big upgrade and the Southerly door is wide open if it verifies.
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Now that's pretty.
     
  12. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Spag had it a week ago

    Just saying
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep! Forsure, it's nothing new but it's starting to fall into place - even since this AM's run.
     
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  14. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    +216hr
     
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  15. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    True, but different.
     
  16. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yep, starting to look like something like a decent snowfall is brewing for all of next week .Perfect timing for Vic school holidays.I will stick to my earlier prediction of 25-40cm.
    BOM still hedging their bets with a wimpy 9 cm to 49 cm forecast for Hotham
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good precip. But if I am to be critical the pressure could be better.

    Hypothetically, if this front (not the node, not the week, not the 4-dayer) was inbound today, we'd looking at solid totals.
     
  18. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm running 85cents by Friday.

    3 separate settling periods of 30cm followed by 10cent of dry dry. IMO.... Its a 7 day base builder so go to resorts that can consolidate a good base, including link trails.
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Both GFS & The Canuck currently have much more ridge influence for the moment, for the 9th/10th.
    GFS00Z
    [​IMG]
    The Canuck 00Z
    [​IMG]
     
    #319 POW_hungry, Jun 30, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2017
  20. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks meh on the 00Z GFS run today. Getting ridged out of the way. Looked much better this morning. Probably look better again tomorrow...
     
  21. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snap.
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC uppers for the 9th/10th: -4C/-14C/-33C
    Cheeses that's cold!
     
  23. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    If we get a quarter snowmageddon I'll be happy.
     
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  24. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  25. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Love your work Kelpieboy
     
    #325 Wardy, Jun 30, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2017
  26. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    For what date?
     
  27. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Edit. Damn iPad...
     
  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Gee i missed a lot in the last 24 hours offline. Better see whats cooking.
     
  29. melty68

    melty68 One of Us

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    They are exactly the same...
     
  30. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's because Pow posted GFS twice. Oops. :)
     
  31. melty68

    melty68 One of Us

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    I thought it was plagiarism
     
  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Setup leading up to 9th looks lacklustre IMO.
     
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  33. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think we've extended the range of the thread

    (As I'm inclined to think is appropriate - but I get the opposing argument)
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fixed, Thanks. And a million sorrys to you and @PMG Must've had @Wardy s Ipad.
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS isn't exactly on board yet. It has the sub-trop jet pushing it through as clipper. I reckon it'll come around to meet EC tomorrow.
     
  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Hope so. Jet would need a significant shift though.
     
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  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    #337 Claude Cat, Jun 30, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2017
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wrong thread?LOL
    (sorry, couldn't help myself)
     
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  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    yep. I wondered where it went! :doh:
     
  40. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    Just hoping we don't get/have a stalled H over east Aus....
     
  41. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    WSo I have spotted four different nodes over the Monday to Saturday period. Here are the two that apply to this period.


    The Monday system, relatively weak.
    Tuesday, the node moves away...

    Tues night into Wednesday, second node moves in, much stronger than the last...
    [​IMG]
    EC still consistent with 30cm for this period.
    Will continue with other two nodes in other thread.
     
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  42. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I don't have a reputation to look after so I can afford to call it early. Still got my money in for 20 - 30 , maybe more , wont be less. Best thing is it looks like its opening the door for others to follow on its heels so maybe when its all said and done .....60 -80 for the week. Result in anyone's language.
     
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    For records sake, here's Tuesday's vibe... Admittingly the temps look a little better by Tuesday AM.
    Monday is still dicey below 1700m IMO.
     
  44. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    If only we had a thread for the follow-up system :rolleyes:
     
  45. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I am sure they will rectify the date problem for the follow up very soon :thumbs:
     
  46. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thursday-Sunday thread is up!
     
  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    My reputation is to look at poor Long Range models ;)LOL
     
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  48. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    :) Wasn't having a crack at anyone , I think you all do some great work and most of you know your biscuits with this stuff which is good for the rest of us. Some of you have different aspects you feel are primo , put it all together and voila....... we all get educated. I can sniff moisture at 10000k but temps etc , na I got no clue about that stuff. Speaking of temps ............-1.2 in my machinery shed right now. Gunna get cold tonight
     
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  49. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Should wear my specs ,...............-2.1 atm.
     
  50. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Predicting for this period, not concerned about pre frontal as moisture seems very low and temps get cold enough before a small amount of moisture hits the mountains. 10-20 cm at best by July 5