Predictions July 3-5

We need elephant snot!!

 

Me too! I missed it the first time.

 

Sad to say I just can't see the moisture in this to make it happen. Please tell me I'm wrong but it looks very dry. Flat out being 10cm.

 

If there's ONE thing this system has going for it; it's moisture. Every model concurs.

 

Yep. Those super cold systems tend to be drier than the ones that are more marginal in temperatures.

 

I'm unconvinced too-but more along the lines of 25 ish for the whole event

 

Is this one of 'those' systems where Vic gets screwed big time?
Most of the rain, much less of the snow?

Most of the total snowfall totals here seem to infer NSW.

 

Can already see lovely mid height Cirrus above Goulburn-Canberra.on the drive up tonight.

 

NSW = higher and better aspect for leeward accumulation. That said, if the snow level is 1900m all that extra elevation will give you snow about top 100m of the hill...

Main range will do well.

 

BOM this morning for Perisher

Forecast issued at 4:45 am EST on Monday 3 July 2017.

Forecast for the rest of Monday
Summary

Max 5
Snow showers.
Possible rainfall: 10 to 20 mm
Chance of any rain: 90%
Alpine Area area
Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers or snow, most likely from late this morning. Winds northerly 35 to 55 km/h tending northwesterly 45 to 65 km/h in the evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

7 day Town Forecasts
Precis Icon Location Min Max
Thredbo Top Station – 2
Perisher Valley – 5
Tuesday 4 July
Summary

Min -3
Max 3
Snow showers. Windy.
Possible rainfall: 10 to 20 mm
Chance of any rain: 90%
Alpine Area area
Cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 50 to 70 km/h.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Wednesday 5 July
Summary

Min -1
Max 4
Snow. Windy.
Possible rainfall: 25 to 45 mm
Chance of any rain: 90%
Alpine Area area
Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds west to northwesterly 35 to 55 km/h.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

 

Nice warm wind now blowing through Jindy. Can't be far away. Wonder if we'll get out the skitube or just turn around and batten down.

Meanwhile, next week is currenty looking like a dead duck on yr.no.

 

They continue to upgrade. I like seeing the BOM forecasting between 52 & 102 mm precipitation,with strong winds for Perisher, over the next 7 days! It will be interesting to see if we have a metre by this time next week.

 

Cuppla feet.
One reading when hovering over this was 90mm.
we may get lucky, we may not.

 

Some of those max temps look a little high. Any concern there?

 

snow level around 1900m today suggests yes, there is some concern...

 

I was looking at Wed, biggest precip day but max of 4C (from that Perisher forecast above).

 

Nothing to worry about! Mid just reported snow falling

(Yes, yes off to post in obs thread. Just didn't think anyone was looking yet)

 

Jane has persistent snow above 1600 from mid morning today

 

All majors in negs.

40cm plus for mine

Off to obs thread....

 

18Z GFS has upgraded this system if anything.

 

blue skies and a new base for 2017. Thats not a dead duckie.

 

540 line and 850 hPa freeze level looking to be elusive atm.

 

After a fairly grim start to this system, the BOM is looking hopeful for the next couple of days once that wind gets some more west in it http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/perisher.shtml

 

BOM have upped Wednesday to 30-50mm, geez I hope that falls solid.

 

I'm thinking the longer this low takes to track across the Bight, the more drizzle we get in the short term, but the heavier the snow once the wind shifts.

Thoughts?

 

You northern folks seem to have a more optimistic forecaster than ours (Vic).

Vic Bureau seem quite conservative in comparison & rarely predict more than 10-20mm (snow) on any one day.

 

BOM predicting 20c tomorrow in Sydney

 

That's because we won't get much snow on Wednesday. Victoria maybe 10cm, NSW about 20-30cm.

 

Is it too early to assume this system won't deliver i.e. fizzer for Vic resorts?

 

I'd say 20cm for Victoria, 10 tomorrow, 10 Wednesday + aspect loading up to 50cm.
And 45cm for NSW, 10 tonight, 10 tomorrow, 25 Wednesday + aspect loading of up to 1m.
That big moisture band that causes the big Wednesday in NSW might clip VIC, but I am doubtful.

 

Hi guys, I first registered with ski.com.au in march 2000 before that epic season. In those days there was a huge thread called "patiently waiting for snow" which was a humerus and fun demonstration of early 2000s JPEG photoshopping amoung other things. People with names like thredbo rules!, strobe, snorkel, vsg and the frog ruled the airwaves.

I would like to say that I'm back as a 32 yr old family man as opposed to the silly immature 15 year old that originally graced the forums back in march 2000.

Anyway- is just like to say that all the predictions about this system appear to be a fizzer. I'm sitting in my lodge in smiggins and would love to go to sleep if not for the thunderous sound of rain on colour bond.

 

Thanks @Jellybeans1000. I predict the chances of there being skiable snow at Mt Stirling by Wednesday are slim IMO. I hope I'm wrong...

 

Welcome back! Snorkel and VSG are still around somewhere. The Frog has moved onto his hopecasting website.

For Perisher, it won't be a fizzer, it should be snowing hard on Wednesday IMO.

 

It's raining very hard and I'm disgusted !!

 

Yeah, tomorrow morning it should be snowing hopefully at Perisher.

 

Good to have you back! I used to be 'thredbo rules!' but changed my name in one of the software updates the forum has since gone through.

Not much you can do other than wait it out. I reckon come Thursday arvo we'll have 50cm up high in both Thredbo & Perisher.

 

I was BENF

 

As I recall you were banned most of the time

 

Yeah.. Not looking flash for any snowmegedon type events.. Looks to be a decent gain for higher resorts but not a classic early July freezer, bringing snow to low levels that i was hoping for. Ohh well those above 1700 will be happy.

 

I've been lurking and following this weather forum for the past few years. Really appreciate all the info other forum members are sharing with newbies like myself. After cross-referencing predictions made on this forum with charts from BOM over the past few years, is it correct in saying that unless we get at least the 540 line or lower over the Alps, any precipitation will be in the form of clear snow?? Any input from more experienced members would be much appreciated!

oh, just realised I may be in the wrong thread...... so I predict the snow will come on Wed based on the 540 line on the BOM charts!

 

Didn't you rain isn't allowed,

 

BOM TSkew ( Thredbo location ) showing distinct lack of mid level cloud for tonight . Precip totals less than 5mm.

 

Welcome mate.
Yes rule of thumb you are correct.
This may help.
http://ski.com.au/weather/tutorials/cola.html
and if you having trouble getting to sleep try this...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/index.html

 

Yeah you need to censor r**n.

 

Thanks nfip. The 1st link to understanding COLA was very helpful. The second link was .

 

Surface Divergence and convergence aloft over the Alps - Yuk

 

Loved the Bears. North Sydney oval . . ah, welcome back to the forum. This snow season is like "Troppo" in the top end where everyone goes a little crazy waiting for the rain. I did my best snow dances for nearly 4 weeks down in the alps through June (to no avail) and decided that the only way the white stuff would fall was for me to head back to Qld for the school holidays. Hence, I predict white stuff this week. Sure bet.

 

Hey @RadDad, welcome to the forums!
I did a write up for weather beginners like yourself. Just too bad that it's in the imperial system. But if you are interested, I can post it.

The 540 line generally means snow to 1400-1500m. There will be snow above that tonight and tomorrow. Wednesday might bring snow to 1200-1300m. In other words, Perisher and upper Thredbo will do fine. Victorian resorts/Lower Thredbo/Selwyn will suffer tomorrow below 1500m IMO. Wednesday Perisher will get the motherload, Thredbo will get a fair bit, Victoria 10cm at best.

 

In regards to your snow accumulations for the VIC resorts being 10cm at best. What resorts are you referring too? I'm pretty sure that Falls and Hotham will do very well as Falls village level is around 1540m

 

Yep, thy doesn't really correct itself until Wednesday AM, but temps aren't there.