July 30th to August 2nd - Predictions

Stratus

A Local
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Apr 22, 2005
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ginger said:
I realise it is WAYYYYY to early to get excited about anything this far off - the frogs predictions are too good not to discuss and froth over!
http://www.snowatch.com.au/14day.php
I'm gonna be keeping a full eye on this one! Up at Buller that next week Mon-Fri! Bring it on.

laugh.gif
 
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Outlooker

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Mar 20, 2003
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No one has been near accurate this far out from a system this year. This last front a couple of weeks ago was to the the 'perfect snow storm' and look what we got.
On the positive side we usually get a decent fall every year at the end of July / start of August and as it is mid winter one would think it can only get better.
 

loc

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Jul 8, 2006
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i think i recall everyone benign pretty certain about last weekends rain a fair way out

think it was the first model that tended to behave itself to a certain degree
 

Kahanamoku

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I know it's far away, and unrealiable yadda yadda yadda... I also know the image will update (I'm at work and cant organise a home for it)... but PLEASE tell me that what I see ISN'T a dominating High pressure cell sneaking in on top of the Puke-system that is supposed to hit us on the 30th!!!!

imageserver.jsp
 

thepass

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Jun 4, 2006
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if n e 1 is a weatherzone silver person can they plz put the GFS extended MSLP charts (the ones for this date) up so we can have a look at what they thinks goin to happen?
 

5 times

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May 31, 2005
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Kahanamoku said:
I know it's far away, and unrealiable yadda yadda yadda... I also know the image will update (I'm at work and cant organise a home for it)... but PLEASE tell me that what I see ISN'T a dominating High pressure cell sneaking in on top of the Puke-system that is supposed to hit us on the 30th!!!!

imageserver.jsp
Now I'm scared!!
frown.gif
 
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Outlooker

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I am starting to give up on this forcasting. At least I have got some great skiing in this year, too bad it was in Japan. That system of QLD looks cyclonic so I would'nt think that it would come to this. Still no clear sign of a decent system.
 

skiflat

Old n' Crusty
Aug 10, 1999
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Thats a HUGE mother ******* high pressure system arriving around the 31st and settling over Australia for an extended period
frown.gif


However, these models are 300 hours out, expect them to change... hopefully..

They are also still showing rain around the 28th
 
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POW Hungry

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CJ2000, settle... I think things could be taking a turn for the better. :p

If this is'nt a positive step in the right direction, in terms of Aus winter patterns, I don't know what is.
FINALLY Extended GFS has progged a good strong westerly stream (a more typical winter pattern).
Good ridging of high pressure at lower latitudes could put an end to the blocking pattern.
Yes I realise it's 288hrs out, but it may well be our light at the end of the tunnel.

thickness.png


I wrote this in a post last week, in regards to a need for a change in our current patterns to increase a consistant winter pattern.
Lately, have had no indication of true winter westerly flow. Due mainly to the subborn positioning of the high cells.
We are in desperate need of a shift of these highs into the lower latitutdes (more north). Meaning a more prevailing westerly stream.

The way the jet streams have been of late, we are in for a cold southerly blast at some point, but as the charts have indicated it will be very hit and miss until we are 'lucky'.
Something worth considering/ Food for thought.
 
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Stratus

A Local
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Apr 22, 2005
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Everyone needs to...settle.

That GFS chart changed completley around from yestreday, it will do the same thing tommorow and the next day. Each update it will probably get that much more accurate, but it will still show differnent scenarios.

I dont think it is safe to make predictions yet, people will either get false hope or give up hope.

:cheers:
 

Kahanamoku

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Without Silver access to the >144 charts, I'm not able to see that the High might be elongated (and produce the nice westerly streams winter is typical of) which I was hoping it would be.

Good to see that it is potentially forecast to happen!

Fingers Crossed!
 

POW Hungry

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Kahanamoku said:
Without Silver access to the >144 charts, I'm not able to see that the High might be elongated (and produce the nice westerly streams winter is typical of) which I was hoping it would be.

Good to see that it is potentially forecast to happen!

Fingers Crossed!
In my post? Are you sure? I saved it to my hard drive and then uploaded it on Darb.
confused.gif
 
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bad-lattitude

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this is the thread I have been waiting all winter for - a thread based on something even remotely likely to bring hope for the season. Now only 18 days to PB and I keep thinking it can't go on forever (even in 82 it kind of snowed in August) and frog has been predicting this for some time now. But why the pessimism in the charts, why would a computer be so nasty as to invent a blocking high at the one time there is any hope of a SW fetch? Yes, I know huge fluctuations on a daily basis this far out, but the chance of 4 or 5 days of constant sw feed from this system seems very real to me if the high doesn't get ahead of itself.
 

Kahanamoku

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POW_hungry said:
Kahanamoku said:
Without Silver access to the >144 charts...
In my post? Are you sure? I saved it to my hard drive and then uploaded it on Darb.
confused.gif
Sorry... not from your post... I'm talking before I saw your post, and from personal access to the data! apologies for any confusion
 
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frazels

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Wait til August guys!
Not much hope until then.

And then all the optimists will say "The ski season doesn't start until September!"

:p
 

Kahanamoku

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frazels said:
Wait til August guys!
Not much hope until then.

And then all the optimists will say "The ski season doesn't start until September!"

:p
Bah! September has nothing on the snow that falls in October!... it'll be a season starter I reckon!
laugh.gif
 
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Stratus

A Local
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Apr 22, 2005
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frazels said:

"The ski season doesn't start until September!"

:p
Going by how this seasons been so far, September probalby sounds right
laugh.gif
.
 
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Stratus

A Local
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Apr 22, 2005
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Your right - Its started nice and early, but stalled for a while!

I for one didn't miss the April fall, i was up at Falls riding my bike around the top of the summit, as it was snowing at 7am
laugh.gif
. What a weekend that was! I sure do have severe SDS right now!
frown.gif
 
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cactus jack

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I didnt miss the april start either, went to baw baw for a slide the day after there had been 20cm's, there was still 15cm's on the village floor!

Ah, the good ol' days!
laugh.gif
 
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QldSkiBum

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May 31, 2005
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That major system off Qld is looking a lot like the same one that hit around this time last year.
eek.gif


Do we concurr???
confused.gif


We just need it to come a little more west this year. The Gold Coast has plenty. :fishing:
 
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POW Hungry

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QldSkiBum said:
That major system off Qld is looking a lot like the same one that hit around this time last year.
eek.gif


Do we concurr???
confused.gif


We just need it to come a little more west this year. The Gold Coast has plenty. :fishing:
In assuming you are talking about the alps, any system off QLD (which ever one your talking about) is almost gauranteed to produce rain. If it is off QLD it more than likely has a tropical influence, far to warm for anything remotely frozen.
 
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Claude Cat

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rossi, most of us can't see those maps. Please copy them on to darb and link from there. All we can see is "this image is available from the weather co."
:cheers:
 

rossi

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Claude Cat said:
rossi, most of us can't see those maps. Please copy them on to darb and link from there. All we can see is "this image is available from the weather co."
:cheers:
I'd bee happy to Claude if I knew how.

Whats a 'darb'. Give some instructions and I'll do it.
 
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stelsegood

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Jun 25, 2002
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quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by QldSkiBum:
That major system off Qld is looking a lot like the same one that hit around this time last year.

Do we concurr???

We just need it to come a little more west this year. The Gold Coast has plenty.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In assuming you are talking about the alps, any system off QLD (which ever one your talking about) is almost gauranteed to produce rain. If it is off QLD it more than likely has a tropical influence, far to warm for anything remotely frozen.
Might well be talking about Qld - and referring to the SEQ rain event last July, which dumped something like 0.5m of water on the Gold Coast in a very short period of time! - and so not referring to anything related to snow.
 
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Claude Cat

On my bike
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Claude Cat said:
rossi, most of us can't see those maps. Please copy them on to darb and link from there. All we can see is "this image is available from the weather co."
:cheers:
Print screen, paste to paint (or like), crop and save as a gif, then upload to http://darb.net/anonymous
using the "album options" drop down.
Then link back to here!
 
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rossi

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Claude Cat said:
Claude Cat said:
rossi, most of us can't see those maps. Please copy them on to darb and link from there. All we can see is "this image is available from the weather co."
:cheers:
Print screen, paste to paint (or like), crop and save as a gif, then upload to http://darb.net/anonymous
using the "album options" drop down.
Then link back to here!
imageserver_27.gif


voila!
 
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agentBM

Part of the Furniture
Oct 27, 2000
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It will be bigger than anticipated and rate amongst living memory. I have been aghast about august for 17 days now and still......no-one will follow me. But then....people here think I am a raving lunafreak which is PRECISELY where I want to be!
 
berg meister said:
It will be bigger than anticipated and rate amongst living memory. I have been aghast about august for 17 days now and still......no-one will follow me. But then....people here think I am a raving lunafreak which is PRECISELY where I want to be!
any scientific basis for this excitement or just a "feeling" . Would be happy to see this prediction come off.
smile.gif
 
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bad-lattitude

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Jun 19, 2004
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gfs +312 and +336 (albeit still absurdly too far out) are apocalyptic in their predictions. Easily 1M plus over 3 days there if that came off.
 

rossi

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Jun 7, 2006
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The whole timing of events from next week thru 2 August have changed since that chart was posted.
The latest GFS runs have altered significantly in some cases. I wont bother posting all the GFS and Extended GFS charts.

They are still looking good for the cold south westerly feeds around 1 August but expect them to keep changing until a few days out.
 

Stratus

A Local
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Apr 22, 2005
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GFS has updated!

This thread should be extended out a day or two aswell i think.

Dates are still changing like rossi said, but this could be a 'dodgey' update or who knows. Still looks like some cold air that first week of August, well the first day or so, with very cold feeds. Upper Levels suggesting a later cold burst by half a day or so then the current surface charts show. Snow to low levels aswell, dosn't show a heap of moisture but we can't get to picky to detail this far out.

Still a looong way to go though folks!

:cheers:
 

dmz

More cheeeese Gromit
Ski Pass
Jun 25, 2001
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Wouldnt you just love someone to say that the High is underestimated and will be stonger than the above model suggests and so the entire system will pass south just like all the others.
:out:
 

Stratus

A Local
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Apr 22, 2005
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No, and you forgot to put a question mark at the end of the sentance
smile.gif
.
 
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