July 30th to August 2nd - Predictions

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by ginger, Jul 19, 2006.

  1. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    latest sat pic has LOTS of cold air south of the continent..trouble is, will any of that get locked into a lovely SW flow in a couple of days time????
     
  2. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm not sure what your on about woggy bot...
     
  3. Alex.C

    Alex.C One of Us

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    Well considering Antarctica is south of us I would imagine there usually is a lot of cold air down that way.. [​IMG]
     
    #53 Alex.C, Jul 20, 2006
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  4. Dr Ken Moy

    Dr Ken Moy First Runs

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    Will the season run late ?
     
  5. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes and No and Maybe and Definatley Not.
     
    #55 Stratus, Jul 20, 2006
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  6. PowderMadness

    PowderMadness First Runs

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    You forgot Would be, Should Be, Could be, and will be not to mention possibly.
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It most certainly will if patterns turn out similar to the extended GFS models.
    It's great to see a return to the winter westerly flow on the models. It just needs to be actioned now! [​IMG]
    I am confident we'll get some good snow bearing systems for August.
     
    #57 POW_hungry, Jul 20, 2006
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  8. Style Doggie

    Style Doggie Hard Yards

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    Will Summer come later this year?
     
  9. Style Doggie

    Style Doggie Hard Yards

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    I don't know about the season Dr Ken but my bloody train sure did tonight and I gotta say it was freezing at Central Station tonight.
     
  10. Chamonixxxx

    Chamonixxxx First Runs

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    I'm up at Hotham on Aug 4 so hoping for some dumpage in the system coming thru just before then... please help me almighty snow god
     
  11. loc

    loc Hard Yards

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    couldn't agree with you more - i get there on the 7th
     
  12. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    we wont have a summer this year, at all.
     
  13. PowderMadness

    PowderMadness First Runs

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    I predict the day after tommorrow storm will hit the east coast and we will be skiing the great diciding range from cairns to melbourne, and the season will never end.
     
  14. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    posted by woggy

    What I meant b_n was that systems that tend to show real promise here over WA (and it's cold, wet and windy as hell right now!) generally fizzle right out before they hit the snowfields because in my experience they tend to migrate SE AWAY from where they are needed. Hence if they manage to track E and then get caught in a nice SW flow +bingo!+ you guys are in luck!!!

    Wishful thinking but Adelaide is a much better guide than Perth... [​IMG] :nerd:
     
    #64 woggybot, Jul 21, 2006
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  15. 2crookknees

    2crookknees Hard Yards

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    I am trying to learn from this thread, as the system approaches. Although I am new kid on the block, I have observed this forum for 3 odd years, (not brave enough to expose weather ingorance). The approching system is certainly the most encouraging I have seen develop for a possible DUMP. No chance of temperature inversion here like last weeks, a long way out but has the Look and feel of Older winter patterns. :thumbs:
     
  16. gsuttor

    gsuttor Hard Yards

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    I don't know what to make of froggies report this morning, it that a downgrade (no blizzard on 30th now) or is it just spread over more days? (starting earlier).
     
  17. ghentboy

    ghentboy First Runs

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    2 days of snow developing, 2 days of what looks like heavier snow, three days of clearing snow or snow-showers..
     
    #67 ghentboy, Jul 21, 2006
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  18. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dr Ken "rhesus" Moy asks some good questions :wally: .....
     
  19. SAL

    SAL One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    well fancy "chimpanzee" that! - (my apologies to Ricky Gervais)
     
    #69 SAL, Jul 21, 2006
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  20. cactus jack

    cactus jack First Runs

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    there you go again sandy, breaking your own rules

     
    #70 cactus jack, Jul 21, 2006
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  21. cactus jack

    cactus jack First Runs

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    I think its a fair question. Is there any chance the season may be extended due to the late introduction of classic winter systems? (if of course the late introduction of classic winter systems does acually eventuate!)
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Hard to see it, as just a good August falls probably won't put enough base down to extend the season significantly. Of course if we get a great August it could be possible.
    A longer season usually needs:
    1. good base
    2. nice top-ups in september
    3. no rain events - rain is the biggest killer of the snow at the end of the season.
     
    #72 Claude Cat, Jul 21, 2006
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  23. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Bit off topic, but....I reckon we need to re-think how we look at the 'season' and move on from those characteristics of twenty years ago. Now depth at Spencers aint that different, but is this a true indication of snowfall, and, apparently the vortex around antarctica is drawing into the pole and 'could' be drawing low pressure cells south. I haven't seen real base that often for years. Surely if the vortex thing is true, then our weather is changing and the August westerlies don't seem so prevailing for as long anymore....
     
  24. Cuppa

    Cuppa A Local

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    Cactus, I think you missed the point.
     
    #74 Cuppa, Jul 21, 2006
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  25. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think maybe Cactus did get the point....... [​IMG]
     
    #75 luvthabumps, Jul 21, 2006
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  26. Ijay

    Ijay Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    ** HEADLINE **


    PRIMATE REINCARNATES


    Anybody care to guess the number of past lives of Dr Mon Key? [​IMG]
     
    #76 Ijay, Jul 21, 2006
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  27. Boonie

    Boonie Hard Yards

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    stay on topic.....punks

    time to clean up a few posts here sandy?
     
  28. Ijay

    Ijay Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    it's a bit hard to stay on topic when there's no snow falling!
     
  29. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    I think the L over WA at the moment is a good thing! Let's see if it holds up or even better....INTENSIFIES!!!!!
     
  30. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    In the lastest updates, its looking that the longer the high over C Aus will stay north, the more fronts we will see crossing. Since this is such precise details we are looking for at the moment, i'm not going to make a prediction based on Extended GFS. When it comes to a week out we'll have access to more models.

    I like to say from the end of the last predictions thread, to end of these dates, maybe 10cm - 15cm, just for a fun long range guess!
     
  31. AndrewK

    AndrewK First Runs

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    That is the classic pattern for a bad year- the lows never peak twice across the length of Australia.
     
    #81 AndrewK, Jul 23, 2006
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  32. BrentC

    BrentC Hard Yards

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    This might not be the correct place to ask, but anyway....

    If you look at the +120 hour GFS, it look like the nice westerly flow that has been blocked for the past week is finaly starting to make its way over victoria.
    [​IMG]
    (I don't have my storage ATM - so sorry, will update)
    The high over NZ is moving north-east.

    Then suddenly, on the +144, it looks as if a high comes out of no-where and parks its **** in a very inconvient spot, pushing the nice westerly flow south over tassie.
    [​IMG]

    My question - is this just GFS shiting itself, if not - where did this high come from? Does it "break free" of the high over NZ?
     
  33. Stratus

    Stratus A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Try watching the loops on Weatherzone aswell, may explain itself.

    No, i dont think its to do with the 1032high over NZ?
     
  34. Kahanamoku

    Kahanamoku One of Us

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    it wont 'Break Free" but it will expand if the Low systems below it travel south.

    Something has to fill the hole!
     
  35. Snow Addict

    Snow Addict Part of the Furniture

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    What do models beyond +144 say about the 968 low below the tip of WA??
     
  36. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    The weekend looks interesting. More lines heading ENE across the bottom with a nice black spikey vertical curves.
     
  37. cactus jack

    cactus jack First Runs

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    It certainly looks as tho NZ will cop a hiding on the sth island again according to that +144. But i agree with R&C, i think this weekend looks very good for good falls at all resorts. The radar imagery is showing the cloud band moving in the right direction and the cold pool looks as tho it may hold together. I like what is coming.
     
  38. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    she be pushed south by a high.
     
    #88 Vermillion, Jul 25, 2006
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  39. Alex.C

    Alex.C One of Us

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    Yaaar! Forecasting pirates we be.
     
    #89 Alex.C, Jul 25, 2006
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  40. optimist

    optimist First Runs

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    [​IMG]
     
    #90 optimist, Jul 25, 2006
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  41. cactus jack

    cactus jack First Runs

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    some areas of perth has already had 30+ mm's of rain from this band, according to BOM, check here surely as long as temps stay down when the band moves over us it will be a good thing?
     
    #91 cactus jack, Jul 25, 2006
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  42. Kahanamoku

    Kahanamoku One of Us

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    Yar, I bet ye 10 pieces of eight that ye temperatures dont stay on lower deck!
     
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The trouble is that it's peaked too early for eastern states, and most of the good stuff will slide south due to the high parked over the south east.
     
    #93 Claude Cat, Jul 25, 2006
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  44. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

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    Arr, in the doldrums we're doomed to stay until a mighty wind comes out of sou-west sou' of South Australia. Until then we be floundering. Now get yar mangy carcasses back to work or there's a floggin' to be had.
     
  45. optimist

    optimist First Runs

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    yeh I tend to agree, if only that high would move on insted of blocking every front that shows promise
     
    #95 optimist, Jul 25, 2006
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  46. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Personally, I think we are into weird sh*t territory again as far as the weather is concerned.

    The apolyptic rain even for his week looks like disappearing. Longer range forecasts change by the day and the models (particularly) the Ext GFS charts are all over the place like a mad womans proverbial.

    I wouldn't be planning anything on basis of these models yet. Chances are you could cancel a trip only to have it dump with little or no notice....despite the predictions of the forecast pirates.
     
  47. loc

    loc Hard Yards

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    raining atm in hotham (according to the cam pic) - so it hasnlt really been averted
     
  48. rossi

    rossi First Runs

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    Apocalyptic rain event means the one the GFS was predicting. The rain is due to contract to eastern areas (the other side of the range)this is contrary to the forecast earlier in the week.

    What cover is at Hotham should stay reasonably intact. Think on the bright side, its gonna get colder and we'll be back to pumping out manmade again soon. Maybe even some natural stuff during the weekend.
     
    #98 rossi, Jul 25, 2006
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  49. Learning

    Learning First Runs

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    #99 Learning, Jul 25, 2006
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  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Avast, the rain event doesn't appear to be killer yet, bilge rats. :out: