July 30th to August 2nd - Predictions

rossi

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Jun 7, 2006
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Learning said:
Will these cold fronts hopefully bring us something that we have been waiting for???

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/latest_fwo_loop.pl?IDCODE=IDX0033&number=14
Sure looks purty to the west, but I guess it depends on the highs to the east. When you get blocking highs it makes a traffic jam and the lows tend to slide south.

If those nice lows come thru it'll be a bonus.

IDX0033.200607241200.gif
 
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rossi

First Runs
Jun 7, 2006
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I cannot believe how different the models are on each run. Yesterdays +180 for 1 August showed a crappy ham sandwich low. And today its been replaced with a completely different pattern. Nothing brilliant I might add but not consistent with what was predicted yesterday.
 

Stratus

A Local
Ski Pass
Apr 22, 2005
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rossi - Remember how the Extended GFS showed this weekend (Sun/Mon) with a fair amount of snow...then it changed out and we never saw it since. There is always the possiblilty it could change back to that scenario.

I'm sure other people have noticed it, i noticed it last season...extended GFS for a few days showed something great...it dissapeared out of the charts for a week...then with 3 - 4 days to go it pops back into the situation again!
 

rossi

First Runs
Jun 7, 2006
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blue_neon said:
rossi - Remember how the Extended GFS showed this weekend (Sun/Mon) with a fair amount of snow...then it changed out and we never saw it since. There is always the possiblilty it could change back to that scenario.

I'm sure other people have noticed it, i noticed it last season...extended GFS for a few days showed something great...it dissapeared out of the charts for a week...then with 3 - 4 days to go it pops back into the situation again!
BN, I do remember because I pin my hopes on positive predictions. The charts are on speed (or the meteorologists).
 
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loc

Hard Yards
Jul 8, 2006
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know its the wrong thread - but what about these predictions for a massive dump around the 17th/18th of april

do u think that it will go the same way as the supposed dump on the 31st? i.e into thin air
 

Makka

First Runs
Jul 9, 2003
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The 17th-18th dump wil coincide nicely with that +336 GFS and my trip down 18th-21st!!!! again hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha..............
oops off topic, I'll stop.
 

Stratus

A Local
Ski Pass
Apr 22, 2005
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I am liking the charts that are currently in the extended GFS, but will be moved to normal GFS is the next few days. GFS isn't showing high moisture, but the positioning of the low is showing lots of cold air for all resorts, so snow to low levels. However i would think that cold pool is being exaggerated just slightly.

Now i would normally say 'rubbish' for anything over 168hr...but in this case, the events in +216hours are following on niceley from events in GFS around +144/+168 hour, so i think it deserves a bit more credibility this time!

A while away in terms of the 'charts', but as early as this time next week we could be getting consitent snowfalls for 2 - 3 days, to possibly low levels
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bad-lattitude

First Runs
Jun 19, 2004
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Blue_Neon, I just observed the same thing with the +216 charts and the following 48 hours. These are not unlike gfs predictions 120 hours ago for +336 so (somewhat surprisingly) they are holding course for something potentially season-saving around 2-4 Aug.

However, I awoke this morning with dismay at Frog's predictions - either he doesn't have any faith in GFS (for good reason) or he's reading something different. I've seen promise in 30-31/7, in 2-3/8 and in 6-8/8 over the past week - the first signs of any promise all season - only to see them all dashed by predictions of evil highs parking their butts smack over the se Aust. Take a look at the current gfs for +48 (developing nicely) to +72 (winds turning 45 degrees clockwise) to +96 (another 45 degrees with NWs coming off the mainland Australia) and you see how annoying these patterns are. Esp when my season begins on 6/8. May GFS long range be right for once...
 

Creekside Bum

Hard Yards
Jul 15, 2001
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optimist said:
I think the good folk at the weatherco are encouraging us to go to NZ as they onlt have a close up of NZ in latest GFS run
yeah whats the go there?? that won't change untill about 400am when it updates.
 
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Stratus

A Local
Ski Pass
Apr 22, 2005
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Melbourne
Could be a nice 'feed' of moisture from that low actually overnight Saturday if that high pushes furthur north!
 

Stratus

A Local
Ski Pass
Apr 22, 2005
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At the moment, the chart of the day is predicting snow level below 1600m for most of the weekend with little moisture. Maybe >10cm in VIC at best At this stage.
 

5 times

First Runs
May 31, 2005
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If the Frog's out there somewhere, I was just wondering what caused the change from snow to rain on your 14 day forecast for the 2nd and 3rd of August. Is it now all doom and gloom?
 

FourSquare04

A Local
Sep 11, 2001
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OK BOM charts just updated, we're looking at a couple of fronts coming through from saturday to monday!!!
I'm predicting 20 - 30cm to fall from saturday to late monday now!!!
Finally, things are changing for the good!
It's about bloody time I hear from more than a few people......
 

BH

One of Us
Jun 24, 2006
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hmmm not that good- Light snow showers Saturday and Sunday a little bit better on monday but I dont see any PUKING as such- well not at the moment anyway.
 

FourSquare04

A Local
Sep 11, 2001
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Wollongong
That 2nd front looks the goods for Sunday - Monday, plus there is a nice westerly flow to this system, should get some nice orographic effects!
It will be interesting to see what the on-snow reporters have to say.....
Only concern is a bit of pre-frontal rain tomorrow with Melbourne and Canberra going for tops of 14.....hmmmm
 

Stratus

A Local
Ski Pass
Apr 22, 2005
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Melbourne
(for VIC)

Well, even though the charts 'dont' show heaps of moisture, i think we may see more then expected, and snow areas developing over the resorts and hanging around for Sat/Sun. That, with another nice follow up from around early Monday, will be another top up and another cold blast. Personally I dont think we will see too much pre-frontal, although possible rain areas *could develop*, UpperLevels are going to be cold, and as soon as that lovley 540line as we know it on the charts, theoretically moves over the Alps, snow level will drop niceley
laugh.gif
. I say snow level to 1600m at Buller my MidDay/Lunch, then dropping another 200m by Evening and Overnight. On Sunday night it will be dropping even more i think to around 1300m, so low level snow
smile.gif
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Another huge great fantastic plus side of things is that the cold air will hang around for a couple of days to come, with the snowlevel sitting around <1600m untill Tuesday-ish. So snowmakers...be ready on Monday
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:cheers:
 
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kasper

Hard Yards
Jul 12, 2003
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GroundCooler said:
Will this dump/pukage open Federation after this weekend?
HAHA not a chance there is a big fat 0 there at the moment. I would have a guess that it won't open this year.

There will be some snow. I reckon there will be abotu 20cm for Buller by Monday. Finally a cold front to speak of!
 
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Monaroq

First Runs
Jun 5, 2001
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GroundCooler said:
Will this dump/pukage open Federation after this weekend?
And people wonder why so many people dont read/post here....

My brain hurts... :doh:

This front will move through fast with minimal moisture by the looks of the charts + radar. At least snow levels down to 1200 mean we get something over the whole mountain to make it look pretty but thats it for the front sadly.
frown.gif
 
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BH

One of Us
Jun 24, 2006
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Theres nothing in this front for NSW just cold and windy with the odd snow flurry. Next front please. :rolleyes:
 

Stratus

A Local
Ski Pass
Apr 22, 2005
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Melbourne
Next front...still looking Cold and wet for tommorow!

Snomakers will be blasting all around the next few days AT least!
 

Stratus

A Local
Ski Pass
Apr 22, 2005
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Melbourne
I'm very impressed that this system was predicted about 10days ago and is still in the books.

This mornings GFS may offer a bit of hope at least...nice moisture upgrade.

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Besdies, NSW dont need snow, so go have a whinge :p .
 

BH

One of Us
Jun 24, 2006
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Theres not a lot more for the vic resorts eithier so nah nah nah nah nah:p. The chief rain band looks to far south at the moment. Nothing but scatterd snow showers and flurries FOR ALL RESORTS. PS- Why are you trusting GFS has it been right once this year ?- GFS is Seriously over estimating the moisture in this front
 

skiflat

Old n' Crusty
Aug 10, 1999
37,708
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BH: So now it's a NSW person telling Victorians how much snow we are going to get :p :p :p :p

Like this current front, I dont see much hope for this one either!

Expect a downgrade in the next few days BASED ON MY OPINION ONLY
smile.gif
 
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BH

One of Us
Jun 24, 2006
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HELLO!!!
Today is Sunday- As the GFS chart clearly says MONDAY which is tomorrow- And I still say bugger all snow TOMORROW
 

Stratus

A Local
Ski Pass
Apr 22, 2005
8,208
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Melbourne
Good, i hope your all wrong.

We will be getting 10cm+ at Buller whether you like it or not. I'll continue to rub it in by posting glorius pics of the freshies in the Mobile Cams all of next week :p .

Enjoy!
 

Stratus

A Local
Ski Pass
Apr 22, 2005
8,208
471
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Melbourne
BH said:
PS- Why are you trusting GFS has it been right once this year ?- GFS is Seriously over estimating the moisture in this front
I will trust GFS one day out no matter how dodgey it can be a week out.
 
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loc

Hard Yards
Jul 8, 2006
191
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adelaide
don't get it - all signs point to positives - the 1st time in ages

and there are still people bitching on here bout that it won't come off - think some ppl on here need to get laid more :out:
 
The front due in tomorrow has improved a bit on the charts and for this season, its one of the better ones. Nothing amazing but with 500 temps of around -27C, 700 temps of around -9C and 850 temps of around -1C or so, I would be suprised if there wasn't some okay snow with this one. TWC is going for 10 to 20cm down to 1100 metres. IMO 10cm or so isn't unlikely going off EC and GFS - 00z charts.

Keep an eye on the sat pic tomorrow and also get the Melbourne sounding to get some real time obs on this front. Its looking okay for mine.
 
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