July 30th to August 2nd - Predictions

Stratus

A Local
Ski Pass
Apr 22, 2005
8,208
471
463
Melbourne
Latest high res MLAPS predicting good amounts of moisture:

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GFS still yet to update tonight...!
 

Outlooker

One of Us
Mar 20, 2003
1,026
427
263
Northern Beaches, Sydney
Some good moisture around Mt Gambier but I would think it is going to be too far south as it seems to be heading directly east. Looks like this front will just clip the mountains so we will miss out on any decent falls.
Need to look at those plane tickets to Japan
 

main street

Doing what I want.
Ski Pass
Jul 11, 2006
73,662
15,455
3,000
Kelowna, BC
Looking at the Melb radar, I'd be very much surprised if the vic alps didn't get at least something out of this.... with buller to fare best if the temps keep heading in the right direction.
 

rossi

First Runs
Jun 7, 2006
1,218
0
0
58
CANE TOAD COUNTRY
There is a radar gap over the Wimmera in western Vic. Thats why the rainfall echo seems to feed out of SA then fade then reappear west of Ballarat when you look at composite radars.

Mt William has recorded some of the highest levels of rainfall out of the front but you will have witnessed bugger all on radar in that area..

They should stick another station in Nhil so we can get the whole picture!
 

Vermillion

Pool Room
Ski Pass
Nov 13, 2005
74,266
29,607
1,563
120
Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
those new radars are bloody awesome! i like the resolution of them.

Rossi - you're a brave man, i will stick my neck out too for the last time this season if it doesnt come off and agree with you
smile.gif
 
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BH

One of Us
Jun 24, 2006
1,092
37
198
42
Wow great upgrade this mroning- NSW bom are going for 30+cm today/tonight with snow falls below 1000m mid morning. Apologies to all for my wrong call of no snow today- I will be wrong more often if it brings 30+cm.
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Yes, as I mentioned last night, the charts and the satellite was suggesting this front was getting better and upper temps are not too bad.

No worries, BH, you only qualify as a forecaster when nature makes a goose out of you 1000 times, so I qualify ten times over!
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mr

Part of the Furniture
Ski Pass
Oct 24, 2003
19,466
13,963
813
melbourne
Yeh, i agree, 4 day chart looked worse, but i cant see why they think the high will push south. Maybe nervous about promising too much, after so many failures this year (bit like me!) There's a big hole in the charts off the coast near sydney that i thought the fronts would be happy to fill.
 

rossi

First Runs
Jun 7, 2006
1,218
0
0
58
CANE TOAD COUNTRY
Vermillion said:
those new radars are bloody awesome! i like the resolution of them.

Rossi - you're a brave man, i will stick my neck out too for the last time this season if it doesnt come off and agree with you
smile.gif
:cheers: Have beer for me Verm
 
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FourSquare04

A Local
Sep 11, 2001
6,516
4,244
563
40
Wollongong
FourSquare04 said:
OK BOM charts just updated, we're looking at a couple of fronts coming through from saturday to monday!!!
I'm predicting 20 - 30cm to fall from saturday to late monday now!!!
Finally, things are changing for the good!
It's about bloody time I hear from more than a few people......
Well, I was right! In fact quite a few places are claiming more than 30cm!!
smile.gif
 
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rossi

First Runs
Jun 7, 2006
1,218
0
0
58
CANE TOAD COUNTRY
The next front (over WA) looks like it's developing a low pressure system in the Bight. Could be wrong but it looks like its getting a touch of the cyclonics about it ..
 

snwbrdr

First Runs
May 30, 2006
54
0
0
49
Maffra
By the looks of the PWAT 700 chart there is a great line of moisture along the 100E gathering a feed both off the ocean and from the northern ridge it is hold the higher precipertation. The next week and half could bring a constant feed of light to mod snow falls, espeacially with the moisture levels in the interior of OZ feed the north flanks of these systems
 

snwbrdr

First Runs
May 30, 2006
54
0
0
49
Maffra
rossi said:
The next front (over WA) looks like it's developing a low pressure system in the Bight. Could be wrong but it looks like its getting a touch of the cyclonics about it ..
Just checked out the charts for BOM and the low in the bite does look to tend that way, like the small lower extention on the warmish front feeding moisture in from the bottom of the system.
 
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meat_popsicle

First Runs
Jun 30, 2005
61
0
0
46
Melb
> what does that mean if a low has cyclonic properties - good or bad?

I'm no expert, but a good example of a cyclonic low is this: http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/sevwx/vic/2005feb/index.shtml

A low pressure system in the middle of summer (early Feb 05) that brought 12 or so cm of snow (and over 100mm of r**n to other parts of Vic).

If one of these pulled up in the same position in winter ... well, it'd be pretty sweet I would think, since the westward moving nature (similar to cyclones) would mean it hangs around for a few days. Provided the winds weren't too destructive of course.
 
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loc

Hard Yards
Jul 8, 2006
191
0
66
adelaide
weatherzone has juts updated - predicting a nice little follow up of 2-5 on wednesday and 5-10 on thursday

nice!!
 

optimist

First Runs
Apr 11, 2003
203
0
0
47
Newcastle
NSW BOM are a bit more optimistic, not that am that interested in NSW this week as I am heading to Hotham on Saturday. There is a heap of cloud but doesn't seem to be too much moisture.
 

rossi

First Runs
Jun 7, 2006
1,218
0
0
58
CANE TOAD COUNTRY
optimist said:
NSW BOM are a bit more optimistic, not that am that interested in NSW this week as I am heading to Hotham on Saturday. There is a heap of cloud but doesn't seem to be too much moisture.
Bit of the stuff around Adelaide.

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