Predictions July 4 - 6th System

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jun 27, 2016.

  1. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    I like it for 10-15cms at Buller and more at other resorts. Normally I stay away from cut offs, but the shear is really good for this one, even if the pressure is a little high at the moment. It looks really messy on the models though, so I can see where the uncertainty comes from. I wouldnt be as all-in as I want to be on the system on the 9th and then the 15th ish, but this is a good cold period where the snow guns should be able to finish setting up the season, and you'll get a little natural fresh to top that up for a couple of mornings.
     
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  2. BlueHue

    BlueHue Dedicated Member
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    If you take meds for anxiety or dodgy ticker make sure you dose up because next week could make for quite a few nervous moments as the temp rises and falls with different moisture bands going by current charts. On balance the good stuff looks the more likely to win the day to me though..... just.
     
  3. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Active Member

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    Cant see it being anything of positive note for the majority of resort elevations unfortunately IMO
     
  4. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Roger that , out of date range but illustrating your comment.....
    My take the 540 line is reasonably present over/near us at the moment & lots of embodied cold air over the land also as it should be this time of year getting into the biz now.
    #the vibe is good #lots of weather.
     
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  5. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Yep, plenty potential well into the July.
    But those wandering cold pools!
    #4day rule.
     
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  6. kiter

    kiter Active Member

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    is it just me but it seems odd this close to an event that Access and GFS are poles apart on mon to wed .Which is more likely to get it right?
     
  7. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    Jane says it's good.
     
  8. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Too much divergence for solid call imo
     
  9. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    She is a God who doesn't watch bouncing balls rather where the ball is going to finish
     
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  10. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Classic Oz
    Moisture vs cold air vs the clock .
    IM(punter)O
     
  11. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    #the vibe
     
  12. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    It's mabo it's the weather , it's the vibe
     
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  13. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Addicted Member
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    Whats with the bloody cyclone south west of WA?
    Models be whack
     
  14. Bluebird

    Bluebird Old And Crusty
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    I did see she was suggesting it could be a bit of a snow/rain mix yesterday with this system, but she now reckons the precipitation will all fall as snow (which is great cos I arrive at Hotham on the weekend and am staying for the whole week...)
     
  15. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    In Jane we trust IMO
     
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  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Agree.
    EC looks ok, but perhaps not much juice.
    GFS looks marginal, with a whole lot of precipitation. IMO

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    And only 90 odd hours out.
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Even 4 days out ...
     
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  18. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Hopefully the southerly fetch drags in enough cold air.
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    BOM pretty much going with EC. That's pretty normal though.
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    GFS still liking the cut-off low scenario. Perhaps a little cooler (especially further north) than earlier runs.

     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC to compare.

     
  22. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Not entirely sold on this yet , something just not right atm however that may change soon enough. More interested in the 15th onward at this stage.
     
  23. telecrag

    telecrag Part of the Furniture
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    Bom temps looking nice, Tuesday/Wednesday.
     
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  24. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Vibe.

    We need more snow.
     
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  25. snowblowa

    snowblowa Dedicated Member

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    As Jane & our esteemed learned friends here concur, ALL will depend on trajectory of the wandering cut -off. We need a little luck with this puppy to milk it for all its worth IMO. #potential
     
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  26. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman Dedicated Member

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    if this works we will get an awesome n/w - turning southerly / then south easterly. this sort of system produces historically Ben Lomonds biggest snowfalls - i think 20-25cm for us if this stays on track , maybe more . :woohoo:
     
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  27. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

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    Wowzes! Way out there. But Monday and Tuesday (11th &12th) look epic on GFS, through miles away. Closer to date I am a bit happier with Monday the 4th set up this morning. Since it's election day I will make prediction; 70-100cm next 14 days :)
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Stay on topic. Predictions for this date range only.
     
  29. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Starting to think we gunna get get lucky here , 20-30cms if the luck holds.
     
  30. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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    BOM going for snow above 1200M on the NSW CT's, Tuesday and Wednesday
     
  31. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    BOM have backed away from the real low level stuff but increased the amount of precipitation quite a bit. 45mm at Hotham over the three days with good temps. sounds ok to me.
     
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  32. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Ideal.
    Will keep everything open but still give freshies everyday. As opposed to 25cm and a big wind load in 18hrs that shuts down Gotcha.
     
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  33. Philski1961

    Philski1961 Active Member

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    Looking good on GFS and EC tonight. Snow will tend to be on the wet side later Tuesday into Wednesday and Selwyn and Baw Baw especially might struggle on Wednesday.
    To me looks another base builder system - a cold follow up system will be needed to tempt me onto the slopes but the models are all over the shop more than four days out so who knows when that'll be.
     
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  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Still looks like a system that will benefit the northern resorts IMO

    [​IMG]


     
  35. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    I'm starting to like that little low forming around Melb. on Mon. I know pressure is high but temps. look ok. No raging gale just a nice steady snow fall IMO.
     
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  36. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Looks like Buller and Baw Baw missing most of it. But having said that, they both did ok this week.
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Buller might miss out, but that might be a good thing, because it will be warmest in there.
    Baw Baw might get stung in the tail as the low bombs. IMO
     
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  38. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    After last year I think Buller will be happy with what they get. Already looks like more natural snow now then any time last year.
     
  39. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Ye.no has 50cm at falls on the 6th
     
  40. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    North and east. Thredbo special. At least the top half of Thredbo anyway.
     
  41. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Yep looks like a Thredbo SE special to me and Hotham could do well out of this system too.

    This system could be one of those surprise type borderline systems where with a bit luck it could deliver a BIG dump if everything comes together at the right time......should be very interesting to watch.

    Edit - BOM NSW currently liking it forecasting snow above 1300m for the next 3 days....
     
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  42. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Roger.
    [​IMG]
     
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  43. Wardy

    Wardy Well-Known Member

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    Ditto. 540 line reaching well up into the central tablelands; I'm less worried about rain than previously. Except for the usual suspects perhaps.
     
  44. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    This wandering cold pool with low winds and or SE wind, will fill in both sides of the range. Really sets up the season proper. Also the wetter snow will form a base and not get wind scoured.

    The rain will also help set the base.

    Down low is going to get a bit wet though.
     
  45. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Snowline of 1300m is pretty good if you ask me, that's Thredbo village level.

    Not too many places much lower than that though, perhaps bottom parts of Selwyn....?
     
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  46. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    Bottom of Selwyn is 1492m apparently.
     
  47. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    1300 is better than good.
     
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  48. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    BOM now saying up to 60mm for Hotham. Just hope it is cold enough. So far this winter temps. seem to be colder then the models are predicting. Hope it holds true for this little stretch.
     
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  49. tele-whippet

    tele-whippet beard stroker
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    BOM going for 900M Tuesday evening and 1000M Wednesday morning NSW CT's
     
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  50. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Yeah, main event might miss the alps.