I like it for 10-15cms at Buller and more at other resorts. Normally I stay away from cut offs, but the shear is really good for this one, even if the pressure is a little high at the moment. It looks really messy on the models though, so I can see where the uncertainty comes from. I wouldnt be as all-in as I want to be on the system on the 9th and then the 15th ish, but this is a good cold period where the snow guns should be able to finish setting up the season, and you'll get a little natural fresh to top that up for a couple of mornings.
If you take meds for anxiety or dodgy ticker make sure you dose up because next week could make for quite a few nervous moments as the temp rises and falls with different moisture bands going by current charts. On balance the good stuff looks the more likely to win the day to me though..... just.
Roger that , out of date range but illustrating your comment..... My take the 540 line is reasonably present over/near us at the moment & lots of embodied cold air over the land also as it should be this time of year getting into the biz now. #the vibe is good #lots of weather.
is it just me but it seems odd this close to an event that Access and GFS are poles apart on mon to wed .Which is more likely to get it right?
I did see she was suggesting it could be a bit of a snow/rain mix yesterday with this system, but she now reckons the precipitation will all fall as snow (which is great cos I arrive at Hotham on the weekend and am staying for the whole week...)
Agree. EC looks ok, but perhaps not much juice. GFS looks marginal, with a whole lot of precipitation. IMO And only 90 odd hours out.
GFS still liking the cut-off low scenario. Perhaps a little cooler (especially further north) than earlier runs.
Not entirely sold on this yet , something just not right atm however that may change soon enough. More interested in the 15th onward at this stage.
As Jane & our esteemed learned friends here concur, ALL will depend on trajectory of the wandering cut -off. We need a little luck with this puppy to milk it for all its worth IMO. #potential
if this works we will get an awesome n/w - turning southerly / then south easterly. this sort of system produces historically Ben Lomonds biggest snowfalls - i think 20-25cm for us if this stays on track , maybe more .
Wowzes! Way out there. But Monday and Tuesday (11th &12th) look epic on GFS, through miles away. Closer to date I am a bit happier with Monday the 4th set up this morning. Since it's election day I will make prediction; 70-100cm next 14 days
BOM have backed away from the real low level stuff but increased the amount of precipitation quite a bit. 45mm at Hotham over the three days with good temps. sounds ok to me.
Ideal. Will keep everything open but still give freshies everyday. As opposed to 25cm and a big wind load in 18hrs that shuts down Gotcha.
Looking good on GFS and EC tonight. Snow will tend to be on the wet side later Tuesday into Wednesday and Selwyn and Baw Baw especially might struggle on Wednesday. To me looks another base builder system - a cold follow up system will be needed to tempt me onto the slopes but the models are all over the shop more than four days out so who knows when that'll be.
I'm starting to like that little low forming around Melb. on Mon. I know pressure is high but temps. look ok. No raging gale just a nice steady snow fall IMO.
Buller might miss out, but that might be a good thing, because it will be warmest in there. Baw Baw might get stung in the tail as the low bombs. IMO
After last year I think Buller will be happy with what they get. Already looks like more natural snow now then any time last year.
Yep looks like a Thredbo SE special to me and Hotham could do well out of this system too. This system could be one of those surprise type borderline systems where with a bit luck it could deliver a BIG dump if everything comes together at the right time......should be very interesting to watch. Edit - BOM NSW currently liking it forecasting snow above 1300m for the next 3 days....
Ditto. 540 line reaching well up into the central tablelands; I'm less worried about rain than previously. Except for the usual suspects perhaps.
This wandering cold pool with low winds and or SE wind, will fill in both sides of the range. Really sets up the season proper. Also the wetter snow will form a base and not get wind scoured. The rain will also help set the base. Down low is going to get a bit wet though.
Snowline of 1300m is pretty good if you ask me, that's Thredbo village level. Not too many places much lower than that though, perhaps bottom parts of Selwyn....?
BOM now saying up to 60mm for Hotham. Just hope it is cold enough. So far this winter temps. seem to be colder then the models are predicting. Hope it holds true for this little stretch.
