Predictions July 4 - 6th System

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jun 27, 2016.

  1. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2015
    Messages:
    333
    Likes Received:
    244
    That is interesting, you may be correct.
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
    ...it most certainly will be 'heavy snow' in the Main Range above 2000m on Wednesday.
    60cm in 48 hours starting tomorrow AM is possible IMO.
     
    Claude Cat and Kletterer like this.
  3. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2015
    Messages:
    1,127
    Likes Received:
    1,064
    Maybe we will still get lucky here , at least for NSW. Dont think the rain will be as damaging as I previously thought it might be. Still think we are on for 20-30 cms profit at the end of Wednesday. There will surely be rain involved here however maybe not as much in the critical areas as there will be elsewhere. Still feel Vic might break even , maybe a slight profit of 10-15 cms at best.
    Just getting a bit more positive about it , Graziers Nose kind of thing.
     
    MarkV likes this.
  4. Ramshead

    Ramshead Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2006
    Messages:
    690
    Likes Received:
    648
    NSW BoM still doggedly sticking to 1200 for tues and wed. Perisher dipping below zero at 730am after warm night. Wandering cold pool wandering to a good place?
     
    Kletterer and 1st_King_of_QBN like this.
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
    skidazza, FourSquare04 and Vermillion like this.
  6. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    64,497
    Likes Received:
    17,326
  7. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    64,497
    Likes Received:
    17,326
    I cant see where the low enough temps for snow in VIC are going to come from in this one. Cold pool seems a little too far North, but the bom are still going with it.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
    Oops, sorry Mods... That was meant to be Obs.

    The low has wind directions all over the shop. I think in any case a low that makes landfall in Aus will always struggle to deliver snow 24-36 hours on wherever it lingers. Still don't see BOM's reasoning here.
    WZ starting to back-track:
    'Unfortunately for lower parts of the slopes, from Wednesday snow will only be falling as low as about 1600 metres.'
     
    Claude Cat and Ramshead like this.
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    92,011
    Likes Received:
    28,682
    Yeh, I think those low level snow calls for Wednesday were a bit ridiculous. I think they might be even optimistic at 1600m, but at least it's in the ball park.
     
    Snowy Joey and POW_hungry like this.
  10. chriscross

    chriscross Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2005
    Messages:
    1,480
    Likes Received:
    265
    So bad news for bb and LM, then? Maybe ok for Buller/Stirling?
     
  11. bondibob

    bondibob Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2015
    Messages:
    137
    Likes Received:
    183
    Any expert opinion on how this is all tracking prediction wise for tomorrow? Interested in nsw and snow level - lots of moisture but snow down too?
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
    Tracking as expected (models and IMO). Expect moisture to grow, as the low moves offshore. GFS has upper temps progged marginally better than yesterday IMO, but I think you can expect freeze levels to rise from day break tomorrow. Snow to 1300m tonight/early tomorrow morning to 1700m by mid-morning IMO.
    Heavy rain around the same time and maybe very heavy mid/late afternoon.
     
    bondibob and Claude Cat like this.
  13. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2015
    Messages:
    539
    Likes Received:
    646
    BOM still strong for Hotham tomorrow. -3 to 0 with 15 to 40 mm. Sounds good, fingers crossed.
     
    POW_hungry and cookieman like this.
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
    BOM not so hopeful for the NSW resorts now:
    "
    Wednesday 6 July

    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow. Rain below 1700 metres later in the day. Winds west to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending south to southwesterly 30 to 45 km/h during the morning and early afternoon.

    "
     
  15. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2015
    Messages:
    1,127
    Likes Received:
    1,064
    I dont think the rain at PV or Thredbo forcast for tomorrow will be all that bad , there will be some that is almost certain. Still of the opinion a snow profit will be made for this time period.
     
    Snowy Joey likes this.
  16. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2003
    Messages:
    368
    Likes Received:
    212
    Ouch !! @ Baw Baw :(:(
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    92,011
    Likes Received:
    28,682
    And that's what the models have said for days.
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
    Even WZ still seems to be scratching their head. They've gone a little lower than their increase yesterday? Bizarre.
    "Snow levels will retract to the higher peaks. Unfortunately, the rain will likely bring a bit of snow-melt as well, especially around Mt Baw Baw."
     
  19. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2014
    Messages:
    331
    Likes Received:
    607
    Wow 40-120mm forecast for bawbaw tomorrow.
     
  20. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2015
    Messages:
    1,127
    Likes Received:
    1,064
    Vics gunna cop it bad , massive totals of rain expected in Gippsland/ East Gippsland. Nasty , very nasty.
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    92,011
    Likes Received:
    28,682
    Hoping that Buller / Falls / Hotham are predominately in rain shadow, to limit the damage.
     
  22. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2015
    Messages:
    1,127
    Likes Received:
    1,064
    Looks to be the only hope for those places. For those that are going to the Vic resorts I hope its not going to be as bad as it looks like its going to be. There was always the possibility of an event like this happening at some point this season. Then there is next week........hmmm , not sold on that either atm.
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    92,011
    Likes Received:
    28,682
    IMO I'm only seeing perhaps 10mm for Buller (with least to lose);
    Falls and Hotham perhaps double that, but have more snow. There's a fair chance they will have a bit of accumulation tonight before it warms up, so on the whole, they might not be too badly affected.
     
    snowgum likes this.
  24. NewTurns

    NewTurns Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2013
    Messages:
    830
    Likes Received:
    1,406
    ABC News said snow down to 1100 mtrs for tonight/tomorrow. All seems very sketchy.
     
  25. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2015
    Messages:
    1,127
    Likes Received:
    1,064
    Got a few grazier mates down Gippsland way and they are bracing for a lot of rain , temp fences to stop stock getting near creeks/ low areas , building small levees/ diversions around outbuildings etc , the usual preps for the event. Going down there with some extra equipment and my best dogs in a couple of hours to help out an old cockie who is struggling.
    Seems my area isnt going to get much , maybe 10mm but then I am on the west of the divide and my old mate is on the east and the totals he is expecting are horrendous. Told me whatever crops he had going are already dead in the ground so really relying on lambing money to get through the year.
     
    Lady Penelope and FourSquare04 like this.
  26. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2011
    Messages:
    3,155
    Likes Received:
    1,672
    No nothing about keeping stock, but I always assumed that sheep graziers would round up and keep stock within the bounds and within shearing sheds during weather warnings?
     
  27. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2015
    Messages:
    1,127
    Likes Received:
    1,064
    In general yes , however most of us have overstocked after the el nino event with anticipation of better conditions in the future coming neutral/ la nina cycle. This means stock division into more managable sized mobs and rotation through pastures more frequently so your total stock may be fairly scattered around your landholdings. In addiion to this is the actual topography of the land. Land around , on both sides of the divide is fairly hilly / steep valley for the most part with plenty of places for stock to "hide". Shearing yards cant usually take more than a few hundred head at a given time and you cant keep stock penned for any real length of time , reasons are fairly obvious.
    Some like me took action last week but that was for a different event which didnt affect those in Gippsland. They help us when needed and now its our turn to help them. Thats the nature of the business , we will all compete for prices , outbid each other for rams etc but when the need arrises we all pitch in.
    Almost forgot this was a prediction thread , well....... I predict by this time tomorrow I will be cold , wet and bloody tired.
     
  28. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2011
    Messages:
    3,155
    Likes Received:
    1,672
    Thanks for the explanation...have always wondered. Also noted sometimes some sheep with their jackets on too during winter travels.
     
  29. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2015
    Messages:
    1,127
    Likes Received:
    1,064
    Young lambs are very susceptable to cold , especially the "pets" or orphanes. I have a plentifull supply of jumpers and sox :)
     
    Lady Penelope and Billy_Buttons like this.
  30. jungfrau

    jungfrau Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2013
    Messages:
    490
    Likes Received:
    277
    30cm tonight IMO, radar very nice