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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jun 27, 2016.
That is interesting, you may be correct.
...it most certainly will be 'heavy snow' in the Main Range above 2000m on Wednesday.
60cm in 48 hours starting tomorrow AM is possible IMO.
Maybe we will still get lucky here , at least for NSW. Dont think the rain will be as damaging as I previously thought it might be. Still think we are on for 20-30 cms profit at the end of Wednesday. There will surely be rain involved here however maybe not as much in the critical areas as there will be elsewhere. Still feel Vic might break even , maybe a slight profit of 10-15 cms at best.
Just getting a bit more positive about it , Graziers Nose kind of thing.
NSW BoM still doggedly sticking to 1200 for tues and wed. Perisher dipping below zero at 730am after warm night. Wandering cold pool wandering to a good place?
"Adelaide has recorded its wettest July day in 75 years and it even snowed a little on Mount Lofty last night."
Yeah those totals are ridiculous for Adelaide for a system that delivered persistent rainfall and wasnt a freak storm.
I cant see where the low enough temps for snow in VIC are going to come from in this one. Cold pool seems a little too far North, but the bom are still going with it.
Oops, sorry Mods... That was meant to be Obs.
The low has wind directions all over the shop. I think in any case a low that makes landfall in Aus will always struggle to deliver snow 24-36 hours on wherever it lingers. Still don't see BOM's reasoning here.
WZ starting to back-track:
'Unfortunately for lower parts of the slopes, from Wednesday snow will only be falling as low as about 1600 metres.'
Yeh, I think those low level snow calls for Wednesday were a bit ridiculous. I think they might be even optimistic at 1600m, but at least it's in the ball park.
So bad news for bb and LM, then? Maybe ok for Buller/Stirling?
Any expert opinion on how this is all tracking prediction wise for tomorrow? Interested in nsw and snow level - lots of moisture but snow down too?
Tracking as expected (models and IMO). Expect moisture to grow, as the low moves offshore. GFS has upper temps progged marginally better than yesterday IMO, but I think you can expect freeze levels to rise from day break tomorrow. Snow to 1300m tonight/early tomorrow morning to 1700m by mid-morning IMO.
Heavy rain around the same time and maybe very heavy mid/late afternoon.
BOM still strong for Hotham tomorrow. -3 to 0 with 15 to 40 mm. Sounds good, fingers crossed.
BOM not so hopeful for the NSW resorts now:
Wednesday 6 July
Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow. Rain below 1700 metres later in the day. Winds west to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending south to southwesterly 30 to 45 km/h during the morning and early afternoon.
I dont think the rain at PV or Thredbo forcast for tomorrow will be all that bad , there will be some that is almost certain. Still of the opinion a snow profit will be made for this time period.
Ouch !! @ Baw Baw
And that's what the models have said for days.
Even WZ still seems to be scratching their head. They've gone a little lower than their increase yesterday? Bizarre.
"Snow levels will retract to the higher peaks. Unfortunately, the rain will likely bring a bit of snow-melt as well, especially around Mt Baw Baw."
Wow 40-120mm forecast for bawbaw tomorrow.
Vics gunna cop it bad , massive totals of rain expected in Gippsland/ East Gippsland. Nasty , very nasty.
Hoping that Buller / Falls / Hotham are predominately in rain shadow, to limit the damage.
Looks to be the only hope for those places. For those that are going to the Vic resorts I hope its not going to be as bad as it looks like its going to be. There was always the possibility of an event like this happening at some point this season. Then there is next week........hmmm , not sold on that either atm.
IMO I'm only seeing perhaps 10mm for Buller (with least to lose);
Falls and Hotham perhaps double that, but have more snow. There's a fair chance they will have a bit of accumulation tonight before it warms up, so on the whole, they might not be too badly affected.
ABC News said snow down to 1100 mtrs for tonight/tomorrow. All seems very sketchy.
Got a few grazier mates down Gippsland way and they are bracing for a lot of rain , temp fences to stop stock getting near creeks/ low areas , building small levees/ diversions around outbuildings etc , the usual preps for the event. Going down there with some extra equipment and my best dogs in a couple of hours to help out an old cockie who is struggling.
Seems my area isnt going to get much , maybe 10mm but then I am on the west of the divide and my old mate is on the east and the totals he is expecting are horrendous. Told me whatever crops he had going are already dead in the ground so really relying on lambing money to get through the year.
No nothing about keeping stock, but I always assumed that sheep graziers would round up and keep stock within the bounds and within shearing sheds during weather warnings?
In general yes , however most of us have overstocked after the el nino event with anticipation of better conditions in the future coming neutral/ la nina cycle. This means stock division into more managable sized mobs and rotation through pastures more frequently so your total stock may be fairly scattered around your landholdings. In addiion to this is the actual topography of the land. Land around , on both sides of the divide is fairly hilly / steep valley for the most part with plenty of places for stock to "hide". Shearing yards cant usually take more than a few hundred head at a given time and you cant keep stock penned for any real length of time , reasons are fairly obvious.
Some like me took action last week but that was for a different event which didnt affect those in Gippsland. They help us when needed and now its our turn to help them. Thats the nature of the business , we will all compete for prices , outbid each other for rams etc but when the need arrises we all pitch in.
Almost forgot this was a prediction thread , well....... I predict by this time tomorrow I will be cold , wet and bloody tired.
Thanks for the explanation...have always wondered. Also noted sometimes some sheep with their jackets on too during winter travels.
Young lambs are very susceptable to cold , especially the "pets" or orphanes. I have a plentifull supply of jumpers and sox
30cm tonight IMO, radar very nice