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Predictions July 4th - 13th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Astro66, Jun 29, 2014.

  1. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    So it looks like Triple header of fronts next week.
    First arriving late Friday
    Then another Late Sunday.
    Then another Late Tuesday.


    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Astro66, Jun 29, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2014
  2. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry link not working. Ill get it fixed.

    Fixed :)
     
    #2 Astro66, Jun 29, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2014
  3. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Photobucket bandwidth exceeded - try hosting on imgur.com
     
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  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    I'm not entirely convinced this will bring too much IMO, but worth tracking.
    As it stands perhaps 20cm?
     
    #4 Claude Cat, Jun 29, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2014
  5. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Imgur seems to struggles with gifs.
     
  6. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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  7. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Really? That's where all the gifs on Reddit are hosted.

    Sorry Claude Off Topic! :p
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    9th? Perhaps more interesting.
    [​IMG]
     
  9. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hmm.............. Changed to imgur. Works fine. Ta.

    9th seems to have more moisture. Likey.
     
  10. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    4th and 6th don't look huge, but it all counts
     
  11. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Location:
    A very long way from the snow
    The low coming through on Friday is not very deep but it seems to have a good southerly fetch, so what snow does fall should be cold and dry, yes?

    Also, BOM is showing it as a double front. I like double fronts.
     
  12. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    9th to 12th ish looking a good chance.
     
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  13. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like temps will be ok.

    Weds 9th Cold pool looks like a dragons head. Maybe it's a sign. LOL

    [​IMG]
     
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  14. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah short and sharp. Quick 15 Friday night before clearing again for the weekend.
    Wouldn't mind an upgrade.
     
  15. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The 8th onwards has been a promising node on the Spag for awhile.
     
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  16. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I get there around the 8th....timing. does look good
     
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  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS.
    5th looking a bit cut-off for my liking.

    [​IMG]
    But there is a cold pool...
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    8th - 10th looking more interesting

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    If GFS is right, we'll probably need to extend the date range out to the 12th or 13th.
    There is very, strong agreement with the above charts to EC (at least until the 9th).
     
  18. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Did I mention i'll be there?
    Yew
    Might get to see something this system
    Spag looks great IMO.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh. I think the 5th is a bit of a distraction.
    The good stuff is from the 9th to the 11th, IMO.
     
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  20. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Best to have a separate thread from the 4th system? If not, feel free to lock or merge.

    A strong system has been showing on EC and LWT for the last few days to come around the 9th of July. This morning AXS and GFS has somewhat jumped on board too.

    Lack of high pressure from far west of Perth to southern NZ allows plenty of "room to move" for the low.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    10 days away...though promising IMO.
     
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  21. Adricat

    Adricat Addicted

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    Snowbliterated© by Snowblivion©?
     
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  22. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Spag has had the latter system showing since it first came into range. Has shifted a little date wise iirc, but has been consistently there....
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  24. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    sitting a little south on wednesday but lots of time to change IMO
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS liking the 5th less than it did this morning on the 00 run. IMO

    [​IMG]

    9th event also seems to be peaking further west.
     
  26. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]

    This sort of set up, while not having very low pressure, can often produce a lot of snow. The WSW wind provides a constant stream & can deliver quite a bit of moisture, while a deep SW or S fetch often produce short sharp speckled cloud but not huge accumulations.
    This is similar to the sorts of flow in August 1984.
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS for the 10th (00 run)
    I think it's just pushed things out a day.

    [​IMG]
     
  28. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Tonights ECM rocking the ridge.

    [​IMG]

    Haven't seen a ridge like that all season, looks a bit out of place. At 10 days away thats expected.
     
  29. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Ec ensembles have that ridge too. On pro.accuweather
     
  30. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Social Media Mod

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    According to @janesweather, snow returning on Friday, getting heavier on Saturday.

    :thumbs:
     
  31. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Weather Channel seem to be backing Janes call.
     
  32. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    [QUOTE="Claude Cat, post: 2332891, member:

    I'm not entirely convinced this will bring too much IMO, but worth tracking.
    As it stands perhaps 20cm?[/QUOTE]

    Are we getting spoilt? I reckon 20cm on Sat would be great with the current base. Sure looks good on the BOM charts.
    [​IMG]
     
  33. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Why are we getting this thread twice under two different headings?
     
  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Wow at tonights spag update ...for Wednesday Thursday next week
     
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  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Redirect of a merged thread. It will disappear in a day or so.
     
  36. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    4th-5th looks quite shallow and the temperature profile doesnt look great. I am thinking some rain below 1600m, up top at Perisher and the main range should be OK though. Other lower resorts wont have too much damage due to this not looking like dropping more than 10-15cms/mm. All models seem to lose their shit after this period though, so cant comment too much on the later systems IMO. LWT looks really good though for the 12th-13th, even though it's moving into a 4-node setup (I normally prefer a 5 node setup for instability) it is quite strong and if this comes off the later systems could be big producers.
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO big, big downgrade on this on EC.
    Th 5th event is virtually gone and the 9th is now just a clipper.
     
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  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS still holds out hope for the 9th IMO

    [​IMG]
     
  39. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah nothing this weekend, maybe even 10th/11th
     
  40. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    9/7-12/7 seems to have really backed off as well. Jane looked pretty bullish yesterday; will be interested to see her update today.
     
  41. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Agree - not looking that great at this stage but still time to flip back.
     
  42. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Just keep an eye on the spag and ensemble models
    rather than the deterministic
     
  43. seekingpow

    seekingpow One of Us

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    What are you seeing in spag not in the general computer models?
     
  44. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]
     
  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    #overrated
     
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  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    00 UTC GFS run

    5th:
    [​IMG]

    9th
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    IMO 5th is very weak. 9th is short & sharp.
    Still TBD if there's a follow-up around 11th or 12th.
     
  47. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    More interested in what EC has to say. GFS has been pretty poor this season.
     
  48. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC looked flatter than flat this morning on the deterministic. Lets see if that run was just an outlier or if it comes back in like with the ensembles.
     
  50. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    This is the EC ensemble for tuesday/ wednesday /thursday
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]