Predictions July 4th - 13th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Astro66, Jun 29, 2014.

  1. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I was talking about Friday saturday.
    while the cold air is there... the mechanism driving it is mid tasman...(thats off EC)

    mind you all the other models are flipping
    Lets get Wednesday done
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Pressure for Wednesday looks good on the BOM chart, IMO
     
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  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS 00 UTC run is out
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]

    Wednesday/Thursday look very good. And another burst on Saturday. IMO
     
  4. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah the low is below tassie there
    looks more realistic
     
  5. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    yeah does very
    was more thinking weekend
     
  6. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thurs into Friday progression looks a bit off to me.
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    agreed. But it's similar on earlier EC runs.
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC almost completely in sync with GFS
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Low perhaps positioned just slightly further North on EC.
     
  9. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    The high is far enough south that it might work....looks quite vicco friendly
     
  10. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. High chance of clipper only that front
     
  11. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

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    I hope Vicco friendly is good for BB ;)
     
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  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks good for Baw Baw on Thursday and Saturday.
    imo
     
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  13. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    hello mr 528 line is in da house lol
    snow to 5-600mtr friday night into sat imo ?
     
  14. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Channel 10 weather already forecasting snow for Mt D on Friday night.

    Acknowledgement: channel 10 weather is in no way a reliable source of weather forecasting.
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Polar jet-stream.
    [​IMG]

    Uppers nice and cold Saturday

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO it will be later on Saturday when it gets really cold.
     
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  17. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Certainly looks that way on the polar jet chart you posted.
    That looks brilliant!
     
  18. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm thinking we might see some pretty dry n light snow out of this event
     
  19. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep as good as Aus gets. Will stay that way for a while too.
     
  20. boorsy

    boorsy Hard Yards

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    When do you fellas that know what is going on think we will see the flakes start ? 2/3am Wednesday ?
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS suggests 00 UTC Wednesday in the south. 11am, perhaps midday?
    IMO
     
  22. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I say yes on this week.
     
  23. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'll favour AXS R and say 8am ish (but I don't claim to know what's going on)
     
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  24. dr80

    dr80 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    This^^^
    Looks like 6-7am on axs-r for Buller (is my guess)
     
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  25. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Might see some sneaky pre snow snow in NSW today.
    Much oro lifting .

    Shear is forecast off the hook for Thursday arvo.
    Thunder snow.

    AXS-R showing 60cm plus for NSW from tonight till thursday 10pm.
    IMO
     
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  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    yes, could see a dusting or two today. IMO
     
  27. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This brings a smile to my face for Melbourne over the weekend:

    Saturday 12 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 9
    Max 12
    Showers.
    Melbourne area
    Partly cloudy. High chance of showers. Snowfalls above 600 metres. Possible hail and thunder. Winds west to northwesterly 20 to 25 km/h tending west to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.

    Sunday 13 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 8
    Max 13
    Shower or two.
    Melbourne area
    Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers. Possible hail and thunder in the southeast suburbs during the morning. Light winds becoming west to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

    Nice to see them calling it nice and early, rather than just "chance of showers". Saturday arvo at the footy will be fun
     
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  28. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bye weekend for the VAFA, it can be as yuck as it wants
     
  29. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    On Donza forecast I pack .... ;)

    looks windy
     
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  30. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    windy but , not so bad as the cyclone 2 weekends hence
    I dare say i'll be at smiggs with the grom thursday...
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS has slightly pulled back on moisture on this morning runs. Seems to favour the south too.
    IMO

    [​IMG]
     
  32. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Clipper. LOL.

    [​IMG]
     
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  33. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Epic looking sat-pic
     
  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    300hpa temps?
     
  35. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  36. Adricat

    Adricat Addicted

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    What's Sunday looking like? Clearing but reduced vis and still windy, or mostly clear, ok vis and not particularly windy?
     
  37. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    all of the above
     
  38. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    where?
     
  39. Adricat

    Adricat Addicted

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    Thredbo, scored a free season pass for me and + one.
     
  40. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Clearing but reduced vis and still windy, or mostly clear, ok vis
     
  41. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Just wow
    [​IMG]
     
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  42. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    what you doing tommorrow
    :rolleyes::puke::yum:
     
  44. Snowdreamer

    Snowdreamer Hard Yards

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    Hi I have been watching for a while and will be in Perisher for the week from Friday. This year we are taking down a family of first time skiers who are wanting to buy a 5 days in 7 pass as well as book some private lessons. Any suggestions for the best days for these people and possibly days to avoid.
     
  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sub 1000hpa pressure for >24 hours + shear + moisture = winning.
     
  46. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Scarlett; bringing euro snow to a resort near you....
     
  47. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Thankyou central Australian trough, sliced the ridging high in half & allowed the now trailing high to sink into the hole left by Friday's Low moving across the Southern Ocean. Atmospheric ballet IMO
    Friday/Sat been on a sharp upgrade since breakdown of high belt IMO
     
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  48. Kimski

    Kimski One of Us

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    Only problem is I won't be there for another 3 weeks. At least with all these systems coming through there should be a very good base by then.
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Polar jet stream for tomorrow

    [​IMG]

    Interestingly GFS has backed right off on the very cold conditions for the weekend. IMO
     
  50. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Meanwhile EC is COLD

    [​IMG]