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Predictions July 4th - 13th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Astro66, Jun 29, 2014.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Same time on GFS

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    850 hPa & 700 hPa temps are good, but the 500 hPa uppers are not nearly as good as tomorrow.
    IMO
     
  2. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    To be honest..tommorrow is sit back and watch.. then we'll work out weekend
     
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  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    fair call.
     
  4. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Embedded troughs in a SW'erly flow...giddy up.
     
  5. boorsy

    boorsy Hard Yards

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    Vic BOM still going for "Cloudy and a few snow showers" for tomorrow. This person needs to be sacked.
     
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  6. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    AXS R resembling a 50cm storm Wed to Fri. (Falls/Hotham)

    IMO
     
  7. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tomorrow is pack car and exit work at 3pm
     
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  8. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    all still looking very tidy imo

    528 line still comes up tp bass straight bom and weatherzone
    both onto snow down to 500mtr :thumbs:

    imo i think there is some dam cold air about to hit tommoz
    and wouldnt be suprised if the snow level is lower than the forecast
    1000mtr ?
     
  9. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict I'll being skiing in a storm then sitting back and watching what unfolds for the next day........ IMO
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic ;)
     
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  11. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Next few days look great.
    Friday Sat unconvinced. SW clipper.
    Meh....it's the beginning of July still :)
     
  12. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This. Cant see through this front on the models yet. But I have faith. 2014 has vibe.
     
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  13. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Minty
     
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  14. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    NSW BOM are going for blizzards above 1,500 m lowering to 1,000m later.

    This is rather inconsistent with Vic BOM's 'a few snow showers' - could this be a more 'north-favouring' storm or are The southerners more pessimistic about its goodness?
     
  15. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Double Wham.

    ECL to the East

    Cutoff low to the west. Something fishy going on here.

    I think that the ECL will stall the Cut off low, allowing for massive falls.



    [​IMG]
     
  16. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Blizzard just means wind & snow.

    'A few snow showers' can mean decent snowfalls on the Vic forecasts.
     
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  17. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Snow showers meaning snow starting/stopping as opposed to being continuous. The words don't correlate to how much actually falls.

    I'm finding it interesting how some of the model runs are predicting sub 540 thickness even directly underneath the high that moves over after the end of this system. Unrealistic, or characteristic of a seriously cold July?
     
  18. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Contrary to the other replies to this post I maintain that Vic bom are clueless about appropriate terms for forecast snowfall atm. A few snow-showers my arrrse.
     
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  19. nisstrust

    nisstrust One of Us

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    Humm predicting the best day to take a snowy.. Sit it out today and thurs may be it. Besides once every four years a World Cup match final btw Brazil and Germany trumps.
     
  20. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Watching the World Cup while the blizzard rages outside = win :D

    (sorry - back on topic)
     
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  21. connells

    connells Hard Yards

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    Technically that isn't an ECL; it formed too far out to sea. Just your typical extra tropical low.

    But I agree with your optimistic enthusiasm that it will create a minor traffic jam and slow the eastward progression of the systems behind.
     
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  22. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Yeah, its more like a Tasman / western Pacific low
     
  23. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just looking over Donza's MSLP analysis chart from the obs thread this morning compared with the 4 dayer from yesterday. The trio of Lows in western bass straight have formed/intensified deeper than progged on the 4 dayer.
    Thoughts on that continuing throughout the day? Perhaps some stalling as 7wombathead has mentioned to help this process?
     
  24. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    Quick bit of help before I head back into studio... :) (loving this new job)
    A few snow showers is related to widespread showers over the region. For mountain areas it is often as good as it gets from BOM, ie you see few snow showers, you go yay.

    Snow shower or two = long dry breaks. One, perhaps two bursts of snow, or the risk of nothing at all.
    Few snow showers = frequent bursts of snow, tending to persistent snow (thanks to the orographic lift)
    Big difference between the two.

    Also, I'm seeing three surges from this system, and the snowfall over the alps will increase in intensity with each one. First is this morning, second this afternoon and the third tomorrow morning.
    And it is cold enough that it is cold, dry snow - nothing like the airmass last weekend.
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  26. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Don't you dare speak to Jane like that!
     
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  27. Adricat

    Adricat Addicted

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    Ha
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    You might have noticed a multitude of posts that have been moved from this thread (mine was not adjacent to Jane's when posted) ;)
     
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  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    And stay on topic ;)
     
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  30. Camelot

    Camelot One of Us

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  31. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    So everyone's gone a little quiet on this coming weekend (not surprisingly after the last few days)
    What are the peoples thoughts freezing level/snow wise?

    We're looking at Mt Stirling this weekend but a little concerned. Things were getting quite moist at buller yesterday and im a little worried it might end up being a bit of a dust on crust event.

    Its hard to know being a complete hack on the weather maps but it really dose not look like the moisture will arrive prior to the really cold air, so I cant see the 800m freeze level actually having snow associated with it. Thoughts.

    Hotham is an option though.

    Oh all IMO Cheers!
     
  32. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Either place will be good mate. I'm expecting around 20cms at the resorts.
     
  33. soda

    soda Addicted

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    Needs to get colder for Buller Stirling very wet ATM
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO 1000m later on Saturday. 10-15cm starting tonight.
     
  35. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    Thanks a lot,

    hopefully that westerly stays away when the moisture arives. It was getting pretty wet yesterday as well soda.. Either way it'll be over 1200kms driving in 3 days.
     
  36. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Temp is good, wind direction is not.
     
  37. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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  38. double_J

    double_J Hard Yards

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    Wind direction is perfect temp is not IMO
     
  39. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  40. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    The blue bird will be chirping Sunday!!!

    IMO
     
  41. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Driest snow comming.

    Its lining up nice on the Satellite

    [​IMG]
     
  42. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

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    Predictions for Baw baw ? Its been very soggy ... :cheers:
     
  43. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Cold and snowy. Precipitation pattern looks good for Baw Baw IMO.
     
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  44. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

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    Everything crossed ... Cheers
     
  45. Powjunkie

    Powjunkie Hard Yards

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    Thoughts on when the temps will drop and some snowfall will begin at Buller??? Very very wet here!
     
  46. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    About to say, I see quite a bit of pre-frontal, before speckled cold pool.

    But pre-frontal will improve base imo.
     
  47. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    How does rain improve a base ?

    Its not like ya mixing cocktails here. The base is in, doesn't need any more mixer
     
  48. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    It's all mixer and no scotch right now at Stirling. Bring on the bar keep!
     
  49. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    It won't improve anything I tell you that
     
  50. TIA_Macca

    TIA_Macca Hard Yards

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    Altho with the consisent systems we have got lining up of the next however long , a bit of r**n or thawing in between systems , an then refreezing again isnt all bad .
    A base of 1m + that is a solid slab of ice has to go a long way towards the longevity of the season .