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Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jun 30, 2017.
I'm splitting these two systems up.
This thread for the follow-up as it's quite a separate system.
CMC and GFS not so bullish - yet
yep , what they said , July
Season needs a restart anyway. Everyone in the Tardis!
@Kletterer here's the differentiation between GFS & EC jets. I agree, GFS has it looking far from ideal.
EC puts the split in the jet nearly into NT. Looks better, still has work to do though IMO.
Be damned if I am going to live through June again
Give it almost 11 months...
Thursday continuation of Wednesday node, that moves out (see 3-5 thread).
Thursday night, Friday... yet another node comes over!
And on Saturday thru to late Sunday, the biggest and strongest node yet comes through.
Being the strongest node, it looks to cause low level snow in the BMs and CTs. But plenty of room for this node's forecast to change, downgrade or upgrade.
70cm for the entire week.
40cm for the Thurs-Next Monday period.
A lot more snow for Victoria on EC for the later part of the week, compared to the 3-5 July period.
The later end (next weekend) may change in the next few days.
But still a decent snowfall, possibly powder everyday for the entire week. I am very excited, given that I am at Buller from this Monday to Next Sunday. Hopefully all the resorts can get heaps of terrain open!
I reckon this week would be worthy of the title 'Snowmaggedon'
GFS This one (due on 6th)looks to peak the day before. Vort in colours and a lovely huge dip in Isentropic Surface.
I'm having a good evening.
This is the money thread.
Hey CC, been a while..... My first stress free June 30
Just remember it's not in stone.
How the earlier system plays out will have a large bearing on this one.
6th to the 8th is looking BOM. The Trailing High is hitting stall.
Just depends on the moisture pickup as the lows come through the bite. SST Still sitting at 16c so should be good convection.
As the fronts stack, expect 2c drop per front. first is marginal but 3rd front will max moisture pickup. 5c surface air level running over 16c water is good for 42cm they come through
Not too shabby for 500.
Punching through at the fold over and possibly some savagery downstream. Vic may do well if it holds up.
EC 12Z backs right off on cold air.
GFS 12Z with a shift and peak early into the bite now, I am not overly surprised given the trough in the jet stream it was up against. Still dropping solid totals.
00Z EC indicating a much more ridgy set-up, a vast change from yesterday's 00Z run (and such is the LR nature of the models)
I am saying nothing till next run.
IMO still looking ok, in the region of 30+cm; if you add the 30cm we should get for the 3-5th, we're going to have a reasonably solid week.
By Aus standards that's a good season starter. Not to mentioned any other little Westerly flow showers on the back end of the week, a few extra cms here and there will accumulate well after Wednesday.
All models are on board for Sunday eve (9th), so I would expect to lock it in by Monday PM IMO.
I predict with 100% certainty that i will be in Porepunkah for a week from the 8th. I also predict that i would like a prediction from those more informed than i about the chances of a snowplayable cover at Buffalo during that week for the kids. I also predict that this post may get removed..
I reckon there's a damn good chance there will be a reasonable base at the top of Buffalo for that week, especially if this comes off.
So we have this node coming across Friday. Now in a reasonable range...
This node comes across Sat arvo into Sunday.
And a big node at the end of the run on the Monday arvo into Tuesday. Looks colder and stronger than the first two nodes. But this is long range, so details can change.
The snow accum for the next 10 days is ~50cm on EC.
The snow accum for the Monday-Wednesday period is ~25cm
The snow accum for the Thursday-Next Tuesday period is 20-30cm
Nonetheless next week is going to be a season starter and a major snowfall period for the season IMO.
Before we get too ahead of ourselves. EC has gone a major downgrade in moisture on the 00z run. 10-15cm in it on the 00Z run. Perhaps the exceeding totals registered in Sou-West WA today has taken the wind out of the sails for now.
Lets keep an eye on things huh!? It's not locked in.
GFS 00z also has taken a bit of dive with the moisture totes.
* in this date range.
EC snow accum says 25cm.
Yes there has been a major downgrade. We were progging 40cm for the period on EC yesterday.
And yes you are correct, it isn't locked in.
Nonetheless a cold period with snow IMO. Like I said,
Wait till next run or 2. That jets gonna back off.
not calling you out, just thought I'd flag it.
Edit: This is a deleted post.
With a significant system prior yet to play out, the models always jump around
12z run puts some separation betweeen EC and GFS. GFS reliving the cut-off in the bite scenario (it has a tendency to replicate scenarios in the same run), whilst EC staying staunch on the front delivering on sunday.
Solid totals out of EC, and if I am to pick one it'd be EC, the progression looks good. GFS seems too 'model-generated'.
I am still very happy with the progression of these two systems.
I predict about 50cm by this time next week
Good helpfull comments re. the character of the models too.
helps back my own thought /obs.
btw . yes, this looks far king minty. IMO.
This system looking good for 25+ IMO, very different to the system earlier in the week. Also good to open up for some more follow ups.
Spag has this brewing up to something special, around the 8-9th.
Yep a "mageddon"
Old mate 'High Pressure Ridge' backs this front poste-haste. It's not going to linger unfortunately.
15-20cm now IMO.
On the contrary, Friday is looking good for a top-up!
I reckon, on the basis of a plus 5day forecast (i.e. i take no responsibility for the accuracy of this statement), that next weekend could surprise us in a nice way...
00z says we back in biz after looking it was going to be ridged to oblivion.
Still some work to do.
*it's not over yet.
GEM albeit a bit earlier and bit more affected.
#2017 moisture be the issue...
Fetch looks to come from good territory.
Timestamp same same , but GFS.
On topic 6-10 July.
10 - 30cm.......