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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jun 30, 2017.
Still with us Friday Saturday this mornings 12z runs.
Yep, EC bouncing back this morn
Not quite text book but we'll take what we can get.
Thursday / Friday look cold and dry on Access-R. Can someone please post an EC chart? The MSLP / thickness / precip one?
Yer it is drying out , relative to last weeks long range.....
and this the 5 day precip for this date range.
Snow Thurs night into Friday.
Snow Saturday arvo
Light snow on Sunday.
And a bit more snow on Monday. Then the system should clear.
Wow wtf? That's some weird shit going on there.
Yeh the BOM just threw some cut-outs up in the air .....
think it's called " this'll fk ' em " .
I like the fact that we have westerlies for a week with various troughs brushing the SE corner of the mainland. These are the setups that give us the good steady falls over a week. We need a big 50cm mass at once to cover all the veg and allow further snowfalls to stick. A quick 20cm fall is almost useless at this time of year because it melts before the next fall.
It's a meandering bunch of lazy lows, fronts, troughs with a half arrrsed high/ridge here and there.
You describing us bro?
Is anyone else worried that we may get r**n tomorrow/today??
Yeah, but there is no natural snow cover for the rain to ruin. So apart from abysmal skiing weather, it will be okay. Anyway, it should be snowing tonight/tomorrow for Perisher/Thredbo, down to 1500m.
True but I'm a Perisher skier and was a touched worried out season stater was going to fizzle
The plan is expect it to fizz as a default.
Then when it all comes together , as it is predicted to do (somewhat) in the next week , it's a bonus.
Show me the snow !!!!!!
You are not allowed to mention the "R" word on this forum!!
Yr suggesting 5-10 cm with cooler temps..
Lack of vibe on this thread suggests to me not much confidence ..?
Hard to be confident with how the systems have played out this winter IMO.
We'll get something out of this, but it's not a game changer.
Might be seeing another 20-30cm on Friday-Saturday,
EC snow accum is about 10-15cm. It certainly isn't a game changer, but the temperatures are better than this current system.
I need to see 10 cm near TBJ and 40 cm at The GGS hut to go and get my snow shoes/snow camping kit out for a trip to Mt. Stirling.If Falls Creek gets more snow during the week ahead then I might head up Road 24 to Pretty Valley at Falls Creek or out to Edmondson's hut.
Bom is expecting more?
BOM was expecting 1m of snow this week too.
Yeah BOM has gotten it very wrong for this whole week, but then again a lot of forecasts have...
The dominance of the highs looks like it will be worn down progressively not dramatically.
If anyone was thinking what 1992 would have been like without the volcano...this year could be it.
Though most models have a nice big blocking high parking itself at end of respective runs..
its no snowagedon but I will take it.
IMO they have been going for the big block at the end of most runs. Does not seem to be playing out.
It's trying to replicate the recent block pattern that dominated the recent month in sizeable anomaly, it's a normal model trait.
Models haven't been brilliant for this set of systems; I wouldn't say bad though IMO
Mix in a bit of gut instinct and you get a closer realization of what might happen.
This was pretty spot-on. Higher parts of Thredders, Perisher, Smiggs etc all getting decent snow but more of the "R" stuff in Vic. Nice prediction!
Locations in VIC. below 1750 M. may have a very lean year this white season. We shall see but Mt. F.T. , Mt. Nelse/Northern Bogong High Plains and Mt. Bogong ( the three big ones in VIC. for BC snow action ) will come through with the goods by August , I hope.
Probably the right time of year to bring out this gem again,
"Models tend to fall down a bit during the change of seasons" ie. as we move form a pattern of dominant highs to a pattern dominated more by alternating fronts and fast(er) moving highs the models really struggle to adapt. resulting in what we see now. Give em another 2 weeks and the models will be a bit more reliable again....
Alas my personal prediction for this one is that it will all be a bit of a fizzer, esp sat and sun, i can't see the moisture making it to the alps. happy to be wrong though.
Should be 25 in it imo
Vote me for the 25 target.
Dries up a bit in the morning but back with us tomorrow night thru to Monday or so.
Steady accumulation only, add in a bit of windblown .....
Now that the current Low is heading SE, the models should get a better look into the weekend.
The Low just hitting Perth is peaking early but just behind it is an embedded front and hopefully a developing low. Check the link in the lower Left Corner. Just on the brew. If it keeps feeding and the Perth Low weakens and drifts SE, then the trailing will come close to being a direct hit.
Watching with interest
I'll go another foot (30.5cm) to make a pair of feet (last system + this system). Just steady accumulation over the period.
US date from http://spaceweathernews.com/
I reckon 20-30cm for the period, based on EC guidance. The temperatures are much better than this system and the moisture is there, not amazing, but there. This would open some more terrain in the resorts and increase the base. But it isn't going to send us into top to bottom cover.
Bom is really cutting back on the moisture for this system,
The Tempratures are much better for this system though,
More runs will definitely open if we get even 10cm from this system
Temp is a priority, then the moisture matters for Aust ski resorts.
If the temps are right then the moisture matters
Perisher, won't be surprised if I'm over-estimating, but I like the symmetry.
They have received a foot last few days??