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Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jun 30, 2017.
Let's hope the next foot is better than the last
You're going to get me in trouble, they are reporting
20cm last 24 hours, 13 cm last 7 days.
with embedded troughs to the South.
Nice long southerly fetch.
Maybe cooler temps for this one?
It's very westerly and a bit messy, so there will be good orographic lift and places like the main range and NSW resorts should do quite well out of it. BB, LM and Buller not so much. Once it actually turns SW it dries up quick and the positioning of the high is not ideal, looks to be cleared quite quickly.
There was something behind this system/s, but it's been squashed this morning. Next half-decent node is about 10-12 days away.
Looking at the forecasted temps for Perisher over the next 5 days, it doesn't seem like a very cold system especially for early to mid July, with max temps forecast around 3 degrees. I would much rather see that around 1 or 0 but at this stage we need as much snow as we can get. Let's hope the uppers are much colder and will allow snow to fall to lower levels....
I observe cancelling this weekends buller trip.
Not enough out of this system to deal with school holiday crowds. Bugger.
Good decision IMO - better days to come yet
Indeed. Semi off topic, but i predict cranking the splitboard out for her maiden voyage next weekend on the main range.
relative to the last few days yes.
Uppers ( 500's) only mid sub 20's forecast.
This "cut-off " has a lot to like about it....IMO
MOisture , fetch , position of the WA high.
Oh and the #4day rule !
As per previous , the models are all over the place and have been for weeks now.
But AXSR in nice n close now......mmmmmaybe good for another foot
850's @ 1500 ish , not so..
Uppers 500's at 5520 or so , a pass at -26 and could be worse. IMO
De ja vu, in set-up and W flow.
Temps look a little better this time around though. A fair bit drier IMO.
10-15cm down to 1300m for NSW IMO.
What's the view on snow or R@1n at Friday Flat level tomorrow? Or should I bring Mr 6 for his first day this season, and third day overall or do a few days with him early next week?
I'd say nothing much of either until the evening. Based on temps at Port Lincon looks a tad warm at the front end so possibly a bit of wetter snow before it lowers.
Friday night into Saturday looks more promising for some falls of consequence.
It looks half baked on the 4 day chart. But not much wind. This is a good dump for main range accumulations, especially exposed peaks. I cant believe they are measuring 41 cm at Spencer. WOW.
It looks better on the Satellite. Incoming.
The uppers Friday looks like it Could. I think 20 cm on the main range is possible. Then another 20 cm on the Weekend. Not much wind blow into the resorts though so I think they will be reporting lower amounts.
Slight upgrade for Saturday from BOM but hedging bets with 8-30mm.
Hopefully the higher side of the predictions
Very Nice.... 41cents is almost halfway to the 85cm I called in the previous thread (before it got split into 2) with 2 fronts to come
Two hits of 20cent will do me between now and Sunday Morning.
For those who don't follow the weather in detail:
In the early season (1st June to 15th July): The first front out of a multi front system will usually favour NSW simply because the NSW resorts are on the Eastern Side of the Main Range and they are higher.
The Main Range sits above 1900m and most Pre Frontal moisture comes from the North West, so when the pre frontal moisture hits at marginal temps (12c at sea level), it is forced over the western side of the Main Range (1900m) and has time to cool before hitting the resorts, leading to good quality Aussie Snot above 1700m. As we saw yesterday.... *Unless it is a clipper system in which case, NSW sees nothing and Vic gets rain.
The second front should favour both NSW and Vic and the third front will favour Vic.
The next is for the Vic Skiers:
The key is that the first front drops temps enough so that the secondary front is cold enough, so that the NW Pre Frontal of the second front also delivers snow to Falls and Hotham.
Falls Creek and Hotham get their best snow from a cold North West System. The moisture funnels down the Kiewa Valley and hits the back side of the Maze and Summit and then dumps in the village for Falls and comes in through the Eastern Side of Feathertop feeding Gotcha and the Summit at Hotham.
Sooo NSW does better early season and Vic catches up by Mid July. By the end of August, Perisher and Falls are almost even but Perisher lasts longer into spring simply due to Altitude.
Its only the 6th of July. Nothing to worry about yet. August fronts normally favour Vic so what you miss out in during July, you make up for in August.
All is good for the season so far.
Saturday 8 July
Possible rainfall: 8 to 30 mm
Chance of any rain: 90%
Alpine Area area
Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds west to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h increasing to 25 to 40 km/h early in the morning.
I predict mayhem if this comes off...
Mind you, In addition to the above. The NW systems build the base but its the follow up SW system that delivers the pow.
I might even fill the car up at Jindy on the way up the hill on Saturday. Could be nasty and a full tank of juice won't go astray.
Great post and a sense of reason amongst all the doom and gloom.....
What's with the BOM 3 day dropping back the totals for this event.
Was looking at 10mm this morning to 10pm Sat but now wiped through the whole weekend? GFS doesn't look too moist either?
Mountainwatch was 12.6cm Sat but, am I missing something ??
Looks 5-10cm here?
Well summed up.
Especially for those us North of the border , it is interesting to learn about the Vic logics
Looking at Sat pic and current obs my gut tells me this will deliver more than expected..
is moisture being "lake effect" from Bight?
-4 temps in Vic me like ..
Looking at today's progress on the sat pic i think i stuffed up the timing. Looks like we'll have decent moisture arriving by sun up tomorrow. Is already over western VIC.
my eyes also still on the trough and other activity South of WA and the GAB.
and the ridge is shifting....
Mmmm multiple embedded troughs - tick
Dare I use the phrase "conveyor belt"?
Add the words 'freight train' to you daring to utter 'conveyor belt' and you have all our hopes precisely expressed!
Cold at Thredbo and getting colder. Guns going. Weatherzone indicares a drop to -5 tonight and high moisture probabilities. Is the Weatherzone app any use? Not as interesting as the Prediction and Obs threads for sure!
I can't believe they're measuring 41cm at Spencer's either, based on my observations today at Perisher -plenty of shrubbery still showing!
I'm guessing slightly colder temps closer to the main range that enabled more precip to fall as snow, and favourable blowin.
Top of MtP was amazing this afternoon. it was blowing snow hard. Sun Valley was getting filled in beautifully.
BOM still going for 8-30mm tomorrow??
All the charts I'm checking have nothing close to this. Anyone else disagree with the BOM for this weekend?
Be stoked if it came off as forecast.
I'm still on this, as per last day or so.
I've given up on the Models for this one and just been looking at the old skool satellite and synoptics.
This pushes thru a little further troughs and cooler SW flow could add some of the mint we need.
There's a lot of speckle cloud and activity out there and the fetch looks good . IMO
Cool, will be a good one to watch!
I'll be out and about either way
Me too .
On the road in an hour or so.
This is one of those potential surprise packets that cant be viewed appropriately on surface charts
Do you see much for southern Vic resorts out of this one? Forecasts seem very underwhelming
The models have struggled a little with the transition change from the big blocking high.
This could be good for 30cm over the weekend. Fingers crossed.
Ok time to jump in the car a start the drive down!
Hey enjoy Bondibob and remember pics or it didnt happen.
I think it looks the goods. Monday next week will be a red letter day.
Out of my league there Mick. I need input from the Vicco guys like @Vermillion or @Jellybeans1000 .
They get a better sniff of it than me and I watch the wrong football code
They understand the intricacies of the physical landscape , similiar to what @The Fallen mentions here somewhere.
IMO I'd be surprised if we get more than 5-10cm in Victoria.
Doesn't look there's enough juice in this system.
Id be happy if we see10 cm for hotham.
Observation ,snowing lightly up here but only about 1cm accumulation this morning.
To sum this system up in one word: "unstable" or "weak" looking IMO
But agree that it gives the impression that there could be a few surprise snowfall totals, however, where they will fall is the question. Another word that screams out from this system is "isolated"
Its cold its windy and its snowing a bit down low - probably much steadier up high. Equals solid base above 1800m at the end of this.
Yeah looks good aside from max temps. It would be better to see the yr.no max temps forecast - all below freezing next 8 days. I know it's yr.no and I would take it with a grain of salt but salt melts snow, so I'll call it more just hoping on those temps.
I predict not much moisture around on Sat.