1. SPECIAL NOTE TO NEW REGISTRATIONS

    If you recently registered and have not received a confirmation email - please check your 'Spam or Junk' folders. Especially if your email is Hotmail. More help with confirmation issues

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

Opinion "July is the old September in Sydney"

Discussion in 'Eastern & Marine' started by POW_hungry, Jul 24, 2019.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,723
    Likes Received:
    21,165
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    So our mates over WZ went bold with this 'statement' headline, indicating the Sydney seasons are back to front in recent years.
    And given the last few non-seasonal days in Sydney, I doubt there's much argument in that.

    But it seems these dry Westerlies are only paying dividends of a Summer/Autumn that was dominated by neg-zonal flow (East-Nor-Easterlies); conditions that are hallmark to coastal areas further North than here.

    ...So it got me thinking, Sydney's weather (particularly this and last winter) has more resembled Port Macquarie's climate than it's own.
    • Last month Sydney matched PM's monthly rainfall, whilst exceeding it's own.
    • June '19 mean Min/Max temps were closer to PM's than it's own
    • Sydney's June SST matched the cooler scale of PM's average at 18.8c
    So where else along the NSW coast is experiencing latitudinal climate switch in recent years/seasons?
    Anyone care to counter argue the above hypotheses?
     
  2. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    29,418
    Likes Received:
    24,954
    Location:
    woonona
    Kinda reminds me of the north island of NZ as well .
    Their patterns have changed.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,723
    Likes Received:
    21,165
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    The ridging over NZ in the last 2 years has been relentless. Would be good to see seasonal MSLP anom comparisons for NZ and the Tasman.
     
    Call_me_Ishmael and Donzah like this.
  4. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    118
    Likes Received:
    151
    Location:
    Anglers Reach, NSW; 1,290 m AMSL; 35° 59' 52.08" S
    The advancement of the Subtropical Ridge might be to blame; henceforth, 32° S conditions down to 34° S, so to speak. Very evident in the dry, snow-less winters as of late northwards of the 34th parallel, such as those eventuating in the Central Tablelands and Central West Slopes.
     
  5. Richard

    Richard Maintenance Dept Administrator

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 1995
    Messages:
    12,526
    Likes Received:
    10,258
    Location:
    Newcastle
    All I know is that traffic stats on this site are already looking like late Aug/early Sep pattern.

    I say ‘pattern’ because session numbers and page view numbers are only part of the equation and never map year to year.

    The ‘pattern’ appears like spring already.
     
  6. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes Early Days

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    44
    Likes Received:
    47
    Location:
    Voyager Point NSW
    Looking at the MSLP anomaly charts posted by the BOM, these are quite hard to come btw. Looks like the mentioned pattern for the past couple of years. It's actually nuts how bad it's been for these past these few winters, just prayers for a drought breaking couple of events.
     

    Attached Files:

    nfip and POW_hungry like this.
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,723
    Likes Received:
    21,165
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Great stuff, I knew BoM had these somewhere and exactly what I was thinking would be a telltale sign.
    Where are these published?
     
  8. Mcbobbings

    Mcbobbings First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2019
    Messages:
    6
    Likes Received:
    1
    Hi Ashes,

    Can you please explain these charts? The way I read it is that 2015 had a high pressure anomaly, but the past few years have been average to within +1 to -1 for most of the country. This goes against what I would have thought it was. Unless the charts are the other way around?
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,723
    Likes Received:
    21,165
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    The charts are observational pressure anomalies for July.
    One blocking high and it’ll throw the months plots but the trend between them is key.
    But I do see indications of a more zonal pattern in the subpolar region south of Aus, for the last 3 years.
    It also vaguely supports more Low pressure systems peaking in the West of the country for the last couple of Julys.
    The next step would be to see the more ‘seasonal’ variances.
     
    AshestoAshes likes this.
  10. Boodwah

    Boodwah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2006
    Messages:
    4,275
    Likes Received:
    6,402
    Location:
    StKilda,VicBC,Prom,France
    Same Melbourne.
    Magnolias all in full bloom already.
     
  11. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    29,986
    Likes Received:
    13,097
    Location:
    Blue Mts
    Fozzie Bear and nfip like this.
  12. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    68
    Likes Received:
    233
    Custom charts can be generated ESRL

    Here is an anomaly chart for May 1 to July 22 2019:

    SLP anomaly.gif
     
  13. Steve777

    Steve777 Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    81
    Likes Received:
    164
    Location:
    Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
    The view from Sydney: we seem to be repeating last year's pattern: firstly, a wet June (~170 mm), characterised by blocking highs, low pressure in the Tasman and South to East winds bringing rain to the coast but not penetrating West of the Divide; then a more Westerly pattern in July, with the rain drying up. Last year, August was also dry, with below average (but close to median) rainfall in September. Rain returned in earnest in October. In 2017, it was quite dry from late June to mid October. In 2016, June was very wet, with July to September rainfall close to average. The 'dry season' was October-November.

    We'll see what happens. EC and GFS seem to be showing a switch to a more onshore pattern from mid next week.

    With regards to temperatures, OH might not be the best site to compare to Port Macquarie or elsewhere. It seems to be warming more than the rest of Sydney (gut feeling, not evidence). The Airport also seems very UHI affected. Sydney Olympic Park might be better (although a bit of a cold hollow on clear nights, plus short records and a site change). Bankstown is good because of long records, ditto Parramatta.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  14. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    469
    Likes Received:
    260
    Location:
    Tweed shire. Kingscliff
    5 out of the past 6 years in Sydney have had some of the highest July temperature means since records began
    Keep in mind the industrialization of Sydney since settlement.

    However the last 6 yrs have been right up there for sure.
    source
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/
    [​IMG]
     
    Steve777 likes this.
  15. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes Early Days

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    44
    Likes Received:
    47
    Location:
    Voyager Point NSW
    POW_hungry and Steve777 like this.
  16. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes Early Days

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    44
    Likes Received:
    47
    Location:
    Voyager Point NSW
    Also couldn't have explained it better myself.
     
  17. Steve777

    Steve777 Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2019
    Messages:
    81
    Likes Received:
    164
    Location:
    Artarmon, Sydney North Shore
    I might mention in passing that the Sydney OH site was moved to a less exposed position in 1917, which had the effect of increasing average Winter maxima by nearly 2 degrees, as if it had been moved hundreds of kilometres North instead of a couple of hundred metres or so South.

    OH average July maximum:
    • 1921-1950: 16.8 - post move
    • 1891-1920: 15.1 - include a few post move years
    • 1881-1910: 14.8 - the period around 1900 does seem to have been particularly cold.
    I don't know why pre 1918 years are included in the Sydney average. They are effectively from a different site, even though it's only a short distance.

    The 1918-2018 Sydney OH average July Maximum is 17.2, which in my (non expert, non-professional) opinion is what should be being used as "Sydney's" average July maximum.
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,723
    Likes Received:
    21,165
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
  19. Wavey

    Wavey Addicted

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    223
    Likes Received:
    388
    Location:
    Wollongong, NSW
    July is the new September and June was the new August! I say that because we got very strong winds quite regularly in June, and it's usually most common in August.
     
  20. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    5,732
    Likes Received:
    3,002
    Location:
    Wollongong
    What a season, kids have no idea how lucky they are to have 4 very good seasons in a row after 2019 delivers yet another amazing amount of the white stuff
     
    Marty_McSly and Ted Harper like this.
  21. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    21,654
    Likes Received:
    14,022
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW

    I caught the lift up at Thredbo with some young chick that told me it had been a pretty ordinary year. I told her she was dreamin. Thredbo was epic over the weekend.
     
    POW_hungry and FourSquare04 like this.
  22. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    5,732
    Likes Received:
    3,002
    Location:
    Wollongong
    A pretty ordinary year?!! Far out :rolleyes: She obviously had no idea about what happened in 2006....
     
    Undies likes this.