Predictions June 14-18th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jun 5, 2014.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Ok, lets take a stab at something both EC and GFS have been hinting at.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Less well developed on EC

    [​IMG]

    Anyway, something to talk about.
     
  2. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Maybe change name to June...
     
  3. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    long range forecasting? header says July LOL
     
  4. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Long range forecast for mid july out now
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Oops fixed.
     
  6. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    NW in feed on latest models ..
     
  7. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Claude
    Can you just confirm what the cut-off between the red and blue contours denotes on the GFS maps you post?
    I presume it's an altitude temp boundary?
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I think weatherzone just use it blue to indicate pressures of 1012 hPa or less and red for pressures greater than that. Seems to be consistent for their maps world wide. Even in the tropics.
     
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  9. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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  10. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Spag looking potentially spectacular for the 20th. (another system though)

    As for the 13th....i like the position of the trailing high plonked S of Perth.
     
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  11. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    With the High's sitting lower on the continent then usual are we less likely to get the hair dryer NW winds with an approaching front?
    On the charts seems to be feeding in from adelaide'ish rather then the normal NW of NSW. Please feel free to correct and inform me as I'm new to this!!
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Reasonably normal for this time of year. The highs should start to break down / move higher as the month goes on.
     
  13. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    00Z GFS lookin' good! Huge area of sub-0 degC 850T in the Bight heading our way...
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  15. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Its wifeys birthday that weekend... its pretty common for it to be cold snowy grumpy weather...
     
  16. hongomania

    hongomania One of Us Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    season starter.
     
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  17. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Maybe , in some ways.
    Looks VERY cold though
    High looks ridgey
    more interested in 18th onwards.
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  19. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I always worry when the low is progged mid tasman...it always pushes out...
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not seeing the follow-up on the 00 UTC GFS run that was there on the 12 and 18 UTC runs.
    IMO
     
    #20 Claude Cat, Jun 5, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2014
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC 00 UTC run

    [​IMG]
     
  22. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Highs too ridgy imo...will be short cold and quick. ...at the moment. .
     
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  23. ScottGN

    ScottGN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Looks all NZ to me at the moment bro.
     
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  24. hongomania

    hongomania One of Us Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    *snowmaking areas / 1800m+
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks that way. At least it's something.
     
  26. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Not that anyone has noticed....nor cared it seems.. the lwt is in a defined five node pattern. ..Australia likes. Imo
     
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  27. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    At least it is our first "good looking" system, ie trailing high waaaay back/south of Perth (my favourite), potential for lots of cold air to come in, mixed with tropical moisture. Tick, tick, tick.
    (I don't like to forecast this far ahead, but when there is nothing else to look at, you kind of have to... - and there is a lot of agreement on what the high will do beforehand)
    There is all that prefrontal, which may be huge on this one, after four solid days of heating - but there is no snow to melt.
    Also slightly concerned about how long this system is building - strong risk it will die off by the time it gets here.
    All said and done, there is major potential for our first big system of the season.

    PS. The sooner this high can go away the better :) Had quite enough.
     
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  28. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS this morning:woohoo:
     
  29. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    EC not even
     
  30. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Date range- very decent
    [​IMG]
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Still a long, long way out. Plenty of time for it to go bad or improve.
    Runs overnight are mixed. Keeping fingers crossed we see it develop some.
     
  33. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  34. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Diverging models but AXS is WOW
     
  35. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Access is AMAZING!
    Too bad it probably wont happen......
     
  36. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Wow INDEED.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
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  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Weaker on 00 UTC GFS runs. IMO
     
  38. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    hmmmm.... ill be in melbourne next weekend for a 40th, worth zipping up to baw baw for a few hours? ((edit wrong weekend))
     
    #38 Chondro, Jun 6, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2014
  39. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Wrong thread. And No. Next weekend however... ;)
     
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  40. phantomas

    phantomas Hard Yards

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    in fact the +186 with that sea level freezing tongue is what one would call classically beautiful
    [​IMG]
     
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  41. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    need a good downgrade to up the prospects of a well timed upgrade that can then be downgraded but followed by an upgrade exactly 48hrs before it hits.
     
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  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS has delivered the first bit ;)
     
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  43. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    ....and 2 more downgrades 12 hours out & 1 final upgrade by Donza & Claude Cat that actually transpires & we get the goods! :cheers:
     
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  44. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    Where did it all go .looks like a nightmare scenario now
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Softening with each run. Not much on GFS or EC now.
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  47. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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  48. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah ec charts look better
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not really.

    [​IMG]
     
  50. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Inevitable downgrade IMO. It has always struck me as fascinating how we all know that ANY model this far out will flip & flop, yet we ride the emotional highs & lows of the upgrades & downgrades as if they were inevitable & locked in stone. (Off topic I know, sorry). Amongst a crew of such great weather anlysis guru's (not myself but you fellas, Falls Expat, Donz, CC, Blowey etc..) , it's funny how we cling to hope & salvation when the scientist in us all knows there's a looooooooong way to go.......ie; quadrillion cubic metres of gas & moisture bouncin' around in circles....