Predictions June 14-18th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jun 5, 2014.

  1. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,113
    Likes Received:
    295
    Location:
    Edithvale VIC
    I dont think anyone was clinging to hope. But theres nothing wrong with a bit of excitement, albeit, short lived.
     
  2. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2010
    Messages:
    980
    Likes Received:
    935
    Location:
    Essendon
    I cling to hope as much as anyone stratus, my point is that despite the fact we all know models will swing wildly, we still love a 'beautiful scenario'. It's the waist deep dream file that opens in all of us......
     
    Alfred14 likes this.
  3. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 31, 2008
    Messages:
    20,302
    Likes Received:
    8,469
    Location:
    Chernobyl, Russia
    That would be the first downgrade
     
  4. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2005
    Messages:
    1,767
    Likes Received:
    520
    Location:
    Beaconsfield,Victoria
    I thought it was looking good when Jane got on board. How quickly things can change.
     
  5. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 31, 2008
    Messages:
    20,302
    Likes Received:
    8,469
    Location:
    Chernobyl, Russia
    Look on the positive side, more chance of an upgrade now
     
  6. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,783
    Likes Received:
    10,457
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    +4 days is just pretty colours and potential timing.
    I use a 4 Day rule.
    For Surf, Snow, Mountains, Working outdoors it Rarely fails.
     
    snowblowa likes this.
  7. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    22,888
    Likes Received:
    15,570
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    :woohoo:

    Charts arent great but Jane's avatar still looking the goods.
     
    gaz35 and nfip like this.
  8. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 31, 2008
    Messages:
    20,302
    Likes Received:
    8,469
    Location:
    Chernobyl, Russia
    looking a bit better on this afternoons run
     
  9. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,783
    Likes Received:
    10,457
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Yeah I reckon the progression on axs doesn't look realistic.
     
  10. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,113
    Likes Received:
    295
    Location:
    Edithvale VIC
    On thing remaining constant throughout the updates (on AXS and GFS) is the position of the trailing high south of Perth. The models are still struggling to get the position and intensity of the low right.

    Will be interesting to watch it all fall into place over the coming few days.
     
    #60 Stratus, Jun 8, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2014
  11. kiter

    kiter One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2002
    Messages:
    881
    Likes Received:
    375
    Location:
    Newcastle
    A bit better ?access is off the dial and back to how it was a couple of days ago and gfs seems to be agreeing but to a lesser degree
     
  12. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    945
    Likes Received:
    480
    yeah agreed kiter,access a couple of days ago was off the planet with a similar cold outbreak to what
    were seeing on tonights update. hopefully that means something ?:)
     
  13. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    4,036
    Likes Received:
    225
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Agree that AXS is suggesting a rather awesome system (although a bit unrealistic). GFS is suggesting a completely different type of system, but both scenarios are snow bearing IMO. My bet is it will flop back and forth a few more times in the next week :(
     
  14. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,783
    Likes Received:
    10,457
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    I still don't think the progression looks right weds/thurs.
     
  15. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 4, 1999
    Messages:
    3,540
    Likes Received:
    1,272
    Location:
    vic
    For some reason all the cold systems approaching Perth get timid and wither across the Nullabor lately.
    Can anyone explain please? (Dominant Highs not moving etc...)

    The irony is that occasionally such limp low pressure systems often seem to kick northwards after passing SE Australia and really whack the south of NZ.

    Surely this pattern must break down soon? Even in an El Niño year??
     
  16. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2013
    Messages:
    619
    Likes Received:
    574
    It will snow, think extreme weather.. Highs and lows.. 30cm across majors by 19th..
    New table and chairs at dinner plain covered by 15/8
     
    cookieman likes this.
  17. Yardsale

    Yardsale Part of the Furniture Moderator

    Joined:
    May 22, 2001
    Messages:
    12,587
    Likes Received:
    227
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Fairly warm water off the NSW coast for this year, and in the bight IMHO.
     
  18. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    4,036
    Likes Received:
    225
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Which to me explains why some systems seem to be forming cut-offs in the Bight, smashing Adelaide and missing the alpine areas entirely. There's also a very warm patch of water off the eastern tip of Victoria which could make things interesting given the right conditions.
     
  19. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2010
    Messages:
    1,129
    Likes Received:
    510
    Location:
    The edge of the bell curve
    And it's early June...
     
  20. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2011
    Messages:
    144
    Likes Received:
    799
    Location:
    Melbourne, Victoria
    Pollo_ski, phantomas, cin and 9 others like this.
  21. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,614
    Location:
    wollongong
    Yeah back on track. ..like
     
    snowblowa likes this.
  22. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,614
    Location:
    wollongong
    Models swinging into cutoff... ecl...
     
  23. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,577
    Likes Received:
    3,122
    Location:
    Gerroa
    What are the temps looking like. Were there not 2 ECLs that surprised us early in the season last year and dumped 20-40cms.
     
  24. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

    Joined:
    May 12, 2014
    Messages:
    491
    Likes Received:
    924
    Location:
    Gosford
    So still on track.
    Just need 1 more downgrade and then a final upgrade and our swings are complete....
    Bring on 30cm+ to low levels!!
     
    snowblowa and cin like this.
  25. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,783
    Likes Received:
    10,457
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    I am unconvinced. Difficult one to predict.
     
    cin likes this.
  26. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    945
    Likes Received:
    480
    hopefully another upgrade or so left in gfs.

    something will happen it just wether or not we can get an epic access senario or medioc
    gfs at best??

    low level snow down to about 500m would suit me scoober lol
     
    cin and Scoober like this.
  27. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    4,036
    Likes Received:
    225
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I think at this stage I would prefer 1200m and 20-30cm rather than 5cm down to 500m, which is looking like the case for both AXS and GFS this evening.
     
  28. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,783
    Likes Received:
    10,457
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Thats kind of where I see it atm, more cm for nsw
     
  29. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    19,281
    Likes Received:
    20,374
    Location:
    Casey Research Station 66°17’S 110°32’E
    Yer crew here still surfing in springy's .
     
    #79 nfip, Jun 9, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 10, 2014
  30. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    945
    Likes Received:
    480

    yeah same 'ice' would rather a nice fall to 1200m which is exactly what is required asap.

    imo on tonights gfs run the high is still strong but showing signs of retreating a little further
    north after this system we are talking about moves away.


    if access could win with the epic chart it produced yesterday,then the 500m asl that
    i live at in the strezlecki's might see the 10-20cm lol:p
     
  31. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,614
    Location:
    wollongong
    System at moment looking very similar to the may 5th ...western wandering cold pool
     
  32. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2011
    Messages:
    3,352
    Likes Received:
    1,768
    Location:
    Sydney
    Yeah that's what I was thinking. What are the odds of that happening again? Hope it delivers more than the last time.
     
  33. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,783
    Likes Received:
    10,457
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Like like like.
    That weds thurs progression I was talking about looks oh so much better. No ridge.
    Higher snowline though.
    Second front (the southerly low level one) no longer exists.
     
    #83 The Plowking, Jun 10, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 10, 2014
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    116,286
    Likes Received:
    54,245
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Above 2000m (perhaps 1800m) could do well. IMO

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Unfortunately that cold pool doesn't quite marry up in the right location.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    116,286
    Likes Received:
    54,245
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Trouble is that as the ECL forms, it warms up.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Perhaps a little better later.

    [​IMG]

    IMO good luck predicting outcomes when an ECL is involved.
     
  36. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2011
    Messages:
    144
    Likes Received:
    799
    Location:
    Melbourne, Victoria
    This is a tricky one - but I am seeing a tongue of just cold enough air wrapping around the low, in time to meet up with the northerly, tropical moisture, ahead of the low. Who knows what will happen once the low moves out over water.

    From this morning's forecast:
    Wet snow is likely up high on Friday and Saturday, possibly heavy.

    Summary:
    A very strong high pressure system is encouraging dry weather, while a tropical weather system off Broome is pushing moisture across the country, with high cloud spreading over Victoria.

    This moisture is meeting up with a shot of cold air from Antarctica, south of WA. This whole system will very slowly move eastwards across the Bight, with a a low forming just west of Mt Gambier on Thursday. This low is likely to head northeastwards, to southern NSW, before heading southeastwards to the Tasman Sea.

    What does this mean for alpine snow? We will see precipitation ahead of that low, possibly heavy, then another burst as the low moves to the east. Despite temperatures today (already above 4 degrees by 10am, thanks to the high) there should be a tongue of just cold enough air, circle around that low, and bring snow up high on Friday and Saturday. There is the potential for a lot of wet snow, above 1700 metres, but nothing below.

    http://www.janesweather.com/snowforecast
     
  37. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    73,112
    Likes Received:
    54,383
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    Perisher could do well then.
     
  38. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2013
    Messages:
    1,652
    Likes Received:
    1,631
    Location:
    Melb - DPlain
    I am not excited yet.
    IMO most of the moisture will arrive when temps are above zero and I fear this may be theme for this season.
    I hope I am wrong.
     
  39. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    17,265
    Likes Received:
    9,329
    Location:
    melbourne
    if theres a good freeze behind the wet snow that could a good thang.....but good freezes seem rare these days....
     
  40. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2010
    Messages:
    1,129
    Likes Received:
    510
    Location:
    The edge of the bell curve
    I have a good feeling about it. Cold, moist, sustained. At the moment...
     
  41. Yardsale

    Yardsale Part of the Furniture Moderator

    Joined:
    May 22, 2001
    Messages:
    12,587
    Likes Received:
    227
    Location:
    Melbourne
    There is a huge tounge of warm water heading out into bass straight - as warm as 22 degrees, and is moving into the Bight off Marlo and towards Lakes Entrance. There is no significant current running thru bass straight at the moment to push this out of the road. What's more the warm pool off Nowra is likely to be pushed back on shore.

    The BOM are tipping a trough. As Jane says, it all depends on the cold air coming in from the adjacent low.

    This look very weird and very non textbook IMHO.
     
  42. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,614
    Location:
    wollongong
    Looks moist...very moist
    sling shot cold pool on the periperhal
    40mms plus forecast at a snowlevel of 1900.
    Thats rain usually.
    Depends on the 850 hpa temps
     
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    116,286
    Likes Received:
    54,245
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Looks too warm for me. IMO
    2000m perhaps has a shot.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    116,286
    Likes Received:
    54,245
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    [​IMG]
     
  45. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,614
    Location:
    wollongong
    But then you get this- NSW BOM
    Friday 13 June
    Cloudy. Isolated showers, falling as snow above 1400 metres. Winds northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light during the evening.

    Chance of snow
    40% at 1800m
    10% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Saturday 14 June
    Cloudy. Isolated showers, increasing to areas of rain during the evening. Showers and rain falling as snow above 1100 metres. Light winds becoming south to southwesterly 20 to 25 km/h during the afternoon then increasing to 25 to 40 km/h during the evening.

    Ive seen systems like this dump... I mean man its snowed off warmer... but that was after residual cold air ..
    This...hmm
     
  46. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2009
    Messages:
    806
    Likes Received:
    147
    Location:
    North East Vic
    Where are they pulling those numbers from??

    I just cant see it getting any lower than 1800 if we are lucky IMO.
     
  47. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2013
    Messages:
    64,263
    Likes Received:
    39,679
    Location:
    The Southern Capital
    It's not just NSW. Vic BOM saying similar:

    Friday 13 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 0
    Max 2
    Early rain. Snow at times.
    North East area
    Partly cloudy. Areas of rain, falling as snow above 1400 metres. Winds north to northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h tending north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning then becoming light during the afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 3 and 6 with daytime temperatures reaching between 8 and 13.

    Saturday 14 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 3
    A few snow showers.
    North East area
    Cloudy. Scattered showers, falling as snow above 1300 metres. Light winds becoming southerly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning then increasing to 20 to 30 km/h during the afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 2 and 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 9 and 15.

    Sunday 15 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 2
    Snow shower or two. Windy.
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    116,286
    Likes Received:
    54,245
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    IMO I don't see it.
    But they are the professionals.
     
  49. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2009
    Messages:
    17,322
    Likes Received:
    12,085
    Location:
    Eastern Subs Syd
    Cold pool and moisture don't align.

    5cm Sat night, maybe. Then a world of hurt. As northerly warm stream is sucked in. Lots of rain. imo.
     
  50. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,614
    Location:
    wollongong
    I can see where the bom are getting it from. Ec has much colder layers progged than gfs or axs. Ec has some quite favourable uppers...less cutoff and better definition at 500hpa. Then though the thickness is ho hum ...the actual deferential at 850.700 and 500 is ok.