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Predictions June 14-18th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jun 5, 2014.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Haven't seen the 00 UTC EC run yet. I assume they are going off this morning's run?
     
  2. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I know it's hardly a scientific method but forecast for Albury on Friday is rain 12oC. Would've thought that's snow weather more often than not. Hope so.
     
  3. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Its rendered on wz.
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, this afternoons EC looks better. But I still don't see snow below 1800m right at the moment IMO
     
  5. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    from chocolates to boiled lollies imo :tany:
     
  6. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    An Adelaide hit this am runs-a miss.
     
  7. tomtankman

    tomtankman Addicted

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    When the atmosphere is not saturated (ie humidity is below %100) the lapse rate is about 10C per 1000m. So 12C in Albury would lead to -7C at the top of the Alps. When the atmosphere is saturated the lapse rate is only about 5C per 1000m......so 12C in Albury is only 2C at the top of the Alps. The atmosphere will be saturated later this week which is why snow will only fall on the higher peaks
     
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  8. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Does barometric pressure influence those rates tomtankman?
     
  9. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Still a large divergence in the models... with EC being the most bullish and presents a follow up afterwards.
     
  10. tomtankman

    tomtankman Addicted

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    Not directly no but if the pressure is high then the atmosphere is most likely dry which leads to a higher lapse rate. If the pressure is low then the atmosphere is most likely wetter and therefore a lower lapse rate......but sometimes when a slow moving high is moving over a region an inversion develops which actually increases the temperature with height. You also have to consider that if a low is over a region the surface temperature will be colder which often leads to a lower freezing level than under a high anyway. So basically there are countless variables....but with all things being equal....pressure will not affect lapse rate.
     
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  11. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Colder uppers ...warmer lower
    hence why the lower snow levels forecast.
    [​IMG]
     
  12. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    Lower uppers look coldest around the central tablelands of nsw
    Wouldn't be surprised if snow falls in that region
     
  13. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  14. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is Sunday is looking good for BB & LM? Or is the fetch not deep enough - that blue line is too far south & pressure too high?
     
  15. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Actually reminds me of this.
    June 14th 2007
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    check the system, pressure and 850 temps
    Then this
    at 820 m asl at Bungendore and Captains flat.
    [​IMG]
     
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  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC does look the best IMO.
    Friday / Saturday not too exciting - too warm for mine.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Gets interesting after that though.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    (Perth looks like it will be smashed on Tuesday)
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I think the early part of the system will be too warm for LM.
    Your best bet is Tuesday - that's going off EC. IMO
     
  18. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    The thickness of 540 is only a simplistic way of ascertaining if its going to snow.
    Sometimes the thickness measurement cannot be used .. Ive found especially when the atmosphere is saturated like this.
    If the temp is warmed or moisture is added to the measurement the thickness will increase ie a higher number.... So a high humidity % level vs a temp will produce a virtual temp, which is then measured to prog the thickness.
    You need to look at all layers of the atmosphere , rather than the thickness between 500mb and 1000mb.
    BTW the fetch at 500hpa is quite decent...
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    18 UTC GFS run is a lot cooler for the early part of the system IMO

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    But does slowly warm as the system progresses.
    But GFS doesn't have the follow-up on Monday - Tuesday.
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    850 hPa temps are not that cold, but 500 hPa temps are not too bad.
    There's a wandering cold pool of -25C ...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    So as pointed out, you could have snow at temps slightly higher than normal under that cold pool.
     
  21. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    CC that spag above shows that cold pool perfectly.
    Not super cold... but cold enough.
    850 temps of near zero will produce wet snow to 1550 IMO.
    if the temp is close to zero at say 1600 snow will fall to 1400 under a sympathetic upper system.
    BTW puck me this system is moist.
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    There's certainly a big moisture in feed from the north.
     
  23. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Awesome response, thanks!
     
  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Thats whats kinda interesting.
    Its already copping the cold air over the continent.
    Rather than a slider wedge , its a integrated cold pool and upper level trough...with a developing surface low.
     
  25. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Looking at the sat pic progression of cold pool vs models forecast trajectory, looks to be heading towards main range as opposed to "wandering west" up through Mt Gambier & west of the main hilss. Your thoughts?
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I think that will change as that low develops in the eastern bass strait.
     
  28. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon the odd flurry of snow down quite low, perhaps even 1200mtrs, but unlikely to settle. Maybe a enough for brief dusting at 1600 which will be washed away quite quickly. Looks like Sunday morning best bet for this as chance of 0deg 850's mixed with really quite cold 700 and 500 temps.

    Above 1800, and in partic above 2000 could be some nice totals with more in nsw than vic. 20-30cm.
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Jane has updated her forecast and seems in line with what we're saying. Snow high first up, with a possibility of lower level snow later.
     
  30. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    A bit of snotty snow this weekend might provide a good base to build on. I'm feeling the vibe for a decent follow-up on June 20-22 or thereabouts.

    As for parallels with 2007 - warm ocean temps in the Bight/Bass Strait were a characteristic of that season too. Along with a few bombing ECLs - some good, some terrible (i.e. the Baw Baw wipeout of June 27-28 that year).
     
  31. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    This has Perisher written all over it.
    Very typical timing too... June 14th.
     
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  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, looks to favour NSW by a fair margin.
     
  33. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    Let me summarise, there is a large moist warm tongue coming.

    @mx_boarder @skiflat
     
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  34. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    BOM IS STILL CALLING 1300-1400MTR SNOW LEVELS FOR FALLS
     
  35. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    oops damn caps lock sorry
     
  36. incogski

    incogski One of Us

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    Classic bom
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    00 UTC GFS run is interesting.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  39. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    can you post the 500 and 850?
    Looks less cutoff, ie more like EC
     
  40. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]

    EC modelled BOM charts
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Probably wont come through for another hour. 12 hour precip is always the first to come through.
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  43. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    wow, look at that blob of purple on Saturday. How's the temps looking?
    If we can sneak them in could be very interesting.
     
  44. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    with the ECL, would the surf be up on the NSW coast?
     
  45. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Are today's temp cooler than forecast.. Feels that way, could be a good sign?
    Hotham 1.1 currently
     
  46. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Current models suggesting 6-8ft surf Sunday/Monday. So depending on your take of surf's up, id say should be some size with bigger sets likely
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    latest GFS doesn't follow the same progression as EC for Sunday onwards.
    I'm tipping EC will back-off the followup on this afternoons run IMO.
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Here's Friday's (12UTC)
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  49. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just thinking whether they will hold the Red Bull Cape Fear with the current models showing an ECL
     
  50. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Maybe , but the winds will be skunk for Cape.