Predictions June 14-18th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jun 5, 2014.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    500 hPa cold pool in the "Sweet spot" for a while on Saturday?

    [​IMG]
     
  2. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    I'm liking how the current H over east Aus is a) breaking dawn and b) moving.

    This is a good sign, very much in alignment with model predictions.
     
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  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Vic BOM has backed off on snow levels.
    Only showing rain on Friday for Vic resorts. This seems much more realistic IMO.

    Friday 13 June
    Rain areas in the east, more widespread over the northeast, contracting contracting eastwards during the afternoon and evening. Isolated showers over remaining districts, increasing over the west during the afternoon with isolated thunderstorms possible over the northwest during the afternoon and evening. A generally cool and mostly cloudy day with light winds tending south to southwesterly in the west.

    Saturday 14 June
    Scattered showers over southern and and mountain districts, increasing to areas of rain over east Gippsland, and falling as snow above 1600m. Only isolated showers possible north of the divide during the afternoon. A Cool and mostly cloudy day with moderate southwest to southerly winds, fresh at times near the coast and strengthening about the east coast during the afternoon and evening.
     
  4. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    I am starting to like this system for Saturday afternoon.
     
  5. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Saw that. That's why I predicted 5cm Sat Night. It could be a bit more. But Fri looks wet. And big moisture is Sunday. IMO. And it will be a washout. IMO.
     
  6. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    For the Snowy Mountains, the BoM forecast hasn't moved though.

    Friday 13 June
    Cloudy. Patchy rain developing early in the morning, becoming widespread in the afternoon and falling as snow above 1700 metres. Winds north to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the late evening.
    Chance of snow
    50% at 1800m
    Below 5% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Saturday 14 June
    Cloudy. Rain, falling as snow above 1400 metres. Light winds becoming southerly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning then tending south to southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h during the afternoon.
    Chance of snow
    80% at 1800m
    50% at 1400m
    Below 5% at 1000m
    Sunday 15 June
    Cloudy. Rain, easing to isolated showers during the evening and falling as snow above 1400 metres. Winds southwesterly 35 to 50 km/h.
    Chance of snow
    80% at 1800m
    40% at 1400m
    Below 5% at 1000m
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO they are not so bullish on snow below 1800m. Especially Friday.
     
  8. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Wet snow above 1800m maybe 15cm friday through to sunday am in NSW with a little less down to 1600m IMO. AXS shows some great potential for follow up next week. IMO
     
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  9. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    No big deal wettish this time of year it's only June , just need to cool the ground and get a freeze layer happening.
    Maybe in 4 weeks time start sweating.
     
  10. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    There is a definite upside to this system......wet snot will be ok for ground cooling, anything below 1800m a bonus, and potential lower level dryer stuff mid week if the trailing high stays north and lets a secondary burst up.
     
  11. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    So prediction for Baw Baw 0cm, Hotham 15cm and CP 30cm over next few days?
     
  12. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Weather channel predictions tonight look good again 1800m and above. NSW having all the love IMO
     
  13. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    What about Buller then?
     
  14. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  15. tomtankman

    tomtankman Addicted

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    Hi teckel. i work for the weather channel. Do you mind telling me where you heard this information......was it watching the show, on the website, pressing red on weather active etc??? Thanks.
     
  16. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    looking like there is going to be massive rain from ECL over eastern Vic.hotham and falls are looking good at decent totals of wet snow from Saturday.IMO
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looking like 50-75mm precip over the alps on Saturday and Sunday. Should be very good above 1800m,
    we might get lucky and see this extend down to 1600m later.
    EC still liking Monday Tuesday for another 10cm to lower levels.
    IMO
     
  18. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    I've spotted a couple of flocks of birds flying erratically west and north.
    We're in for a nice white treat this weekend then ;)
     
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  19. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    EC still the coldest model by quite a factor.
     
  20. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    But harder to love this morning's models IMO.
     
  21. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    How come? They are colder (particularly EC)
     
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  22. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Just a tip... check out the 500 and 850 temps only...also look at the wind patterns . Disregard the thickness and freezing level.
    Compare the three models side by side.
    EG AXS-R has a broad area of an upper level cold pool at -26 @500 over most of NSW around Saturday.
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC is pretty good. Still a system for up high though, IMO
     
  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Up high and NSW IMO.
    Like a few other mid june systems.
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Seems fairly typical in the last few years.
     
  26. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    Hi donza
    What are the chances of snow high up on oberon plateau or mount canobolas ?
    I was thinking of a day trip Saturday
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    NSW for sure on Saturday.
    [​IMG]

    Monday seems to be the best bet for Victoria. (although it looks pretty weak on GFS) IMO

    [​IMG]
     
  28. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah OK hey.. much like may 05th or so.. though its not as cold.
    depends on the timing of the cold pool and moisture
    I'm thinking wet snow on the OP , mixed with rain.
    Prob ideal timing ...4pm..sat
     
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  29. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    Will be interesting to watch the temps trend today (I'm referring Perisher Valley).
    Was very warm overnight, but winds swinging now to the W in front of the big cloud band and temps dropping. Hopefully this will be a good indicator of the temps within the moist cloud band?
    Lots of luvverly cold behind it though :)
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  31. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    Thanks mate
    Last time there was a fair bit of snow in mount canobolas
    Might go there try my luck
     
  32. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    I've had enough confidence this morning to go for 50 to 60 cm above 1700 metres, and "in the east" - heaviest will be as the low deepens overnight Saturday. It does depend on where that low develops once it moves over water.

    You guys are spot on about not just looking at normal thickness - here is the critical thickness plot (all layers) from EC for Saturday afternoon:
    This one will be borderline, but there is huge potential for heaps of snow up high.
    Then Monday-Tuesday will be a nice, quick, moderate fall - that brings snow to the remaining elevations.
     
  33. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Re History.
    Check the 500 temps on the 14th June 2007 fall and compare to progged
    [​IMG]
     
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  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    That day near canberra...
    [​IMG]
     
  35. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    My concern is that things seem to have shifted more to a SE flow rather than a SW flow and the feed of colder air gets cut off. Cold pool drifts off to the N/NE earlier than wanted, to be replaced by warmer wet SE air flow. More confidence a couple of days ago. But it's early season, it's weather, so bring it on, whatever it is.
     
  36. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  37. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    OOOwaa, now that ballsy!
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    There's more than enough moisture to deliver this.
     
  39. Brindabella

    Brindabella Hard Yards

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    Whats with the latest BOM 4 Dayer?
     
  40. Brindabella

    Brindabella Hard Yards

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    What is the go with the BOM 4 dayer?
     
  41. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Latest AXS-R is colder ... just saying
    models on a upswing.
     
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  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    00 UTC GFS is status quo IMO.
     
  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I'm looking more at the 850 and 500 temps
     
  44. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah just looked at that. IMO all good above 1500m.
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Pretty much unchanged on GFS from previous (GFS) runs.
    IMO GFS is not as bullish about the temps as EC.
     
  46. bas1

    bas1 Hard Yards

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    Gfs showing a nice system for around the 20th
    Hopefully good follow up snow
     
  47. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM still like it.
     
  48. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    yeah, noticed bom jumped off it n went up to 1700, and are back on to 1400mtr snow levels again for falls creek
     
  49. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perfect result for this time of year if it comes off. Heavy, wet, sticky, all the way down, perfect for base building.
     
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  50. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    'snow down to' does not mean 'constant snow at'

    IMO, snow flurries mixed with snot, rain, hail etc etc at those levels but no real accumulation

    As it stands it will only accumulate to impressive numbers up above 1800

    But, there is still room for fairly subtle upgrade or downgrade(in temps and moisture) which would make a big difference either way to a marginal event like this