Observations June 14-18th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jun 12, 2014.

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  1. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Puking at P.
     
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  2. Portski

    Portski Addicted

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    Looking at the cams, Perisher appears to have done relatively well out of this. Interesting with the temps still marginal in the valley.
     
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  3. Camelot

    Camelot One of Us

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    Snow just about all gone down here at Davenport. Winds gusting up to 96kmh during the night. It's looks cold enough now but no moisture...
     
  4. Portski

    Portski Addicted

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    Thredbo claiming 20cm up high, and Perisher 15cm overnight.
     
  5. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    WOw even Selwyn got some love out of this.
     
  6. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    Thredbo looking good from the cat shed up.
     
  7. dmz

    dmz More cheeeese Gromit Ski Pass: Gold

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    What happened at Hotham? Did the rain wash all the snow away?
     
  8. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perisher Gauge.

    Looks like 20mm since it turned to snow.

    So I would say probably 10-15cm.

    [​IMG]
     
  9. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    From the cams, looks like thredbo has been able to open merrits with the new snow
     
  10. Camelot

    Camelot One of Us

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    down below 1700 yes, above 1700 is still there but definitely rain affected...
     
  11. JG

    JG Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    I suspect they have just sent all of the beginners classes up there that usually walk around Friday Flat.
    Looks like it just needs a little more, or a night of snowmaking, and Merrits will be away for 2014.
     
  12. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Not a bad result but not a lot to get over excited about. Good news is they should be snowmaking overnight every night for a week or so in the majors. A follow up system or two will get us off to a reasonable start.
     
  13. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Up at Perisher to collect 4 year olds gear. Snow from about skirider.
    Sun out now but a cold wind from the south.
    Headed into jax while the mrs and 4yo hit up the carpet
     
  14. Fandango

    Fandango Addicted

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    Heard they may get the V8 going, can you see it moving Loweee?
     
  15. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cams show people on the V8 and people coming down the main slope area. And Perisher lift report has the V8 on green

    Amazing effort...
     
  16. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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    A couple of big freezes, some snowmaking and natural stuff this week should get a bit going at P by next weekend. Temps staying low and no rain to ruin it. With temps low we may get into the negatives early tonight.
     
  17. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    I observe GFS was fairly over optimistic with ECL moisture & duration. Low moving NE faster than most models picked, taking moisture with it IMO Little slider front looks ok, could surprise if holds it's juice, be nice if Buller/Hotham & Falls got a sprinkle to blow some man made on top of all week...IMO
     
  18. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    The small follow up front about to go through Melbourne, hoping it keeps its moisture going through all resorts
     
  19. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Sounds like a fairly typical G-Frog-S type scenario - it always goes for whacko ECLs
     
  20. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Not sure why GFS goes for such optimistic moisture imprints on this ecl's given the trailing high was 1034 hp and acts as a Great Wall preventing deep rainfall penetration west of the coast. Granted there were some big falls in the far east of gippsland, but certainly not the totals it progged for more western resorts of falls and buller. I guess I'm just annoyed those hills missed out on a sprinkle but with marginal temps it was never going to happen anyways. Stoked for thredbo tho, I have skied the vic resorts plenty but thredbo is my choice of late, love the vertical and snow quality up high more consistent. On topic, rain here in Essendon, steady and cold, hopefully gets the ball rolling for vic hills. How good does the next 10 days look?! Significant snow early next week IMO
     
  21. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Mt William's temp went up with the passing of this rainband. Looks more like a Leeuwin Current warm front to me near the surface, with some colder air aloft....

    Still very little sign of a direct hit of polar modified air for us.
     
  22. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hotham -2.5, Buller -0.4, Falls -0.8.
     
  23. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Damned cold in Narby! Persistent rain. Feels like winter at last :)
    No idea what's going on the mountain as there's no camera updates :(
     
  24. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Now that would be intriguing. Temps fluctuating in NSW this morning but dropping now. We'll soon know.
     
  25. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snowing at Buller according to a few FB posts I've just seen.
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]
     
  27. wrxbouy

    wrxbouy Hard Yards

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    looks to be raining at hotham with temps at -1.2???
     
  28. Camelot

    Camelot One of Us

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    Snowing at Davenport, Hotham (barely though)
     
    #128 Camelot, Jun 16, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2014
  29. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Not exactly winter in Melbourne atm - 16.5c
     
  30. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Certainly winter in Albury. Car says 10oC outside and feels every bit that cold.
    Dry though
     
  31. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    13.6 in eastern suburbs and feels a bit winter like. Radar shows some showers on their way.
     
  32. woggybot

    woggybot One of Us

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    Not sure if snow or fog on Perisher cams ATM.
    Below 0C however :)
     
  33. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Raining in Albury.
    :)
     
  34. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Shower crossing Prahran
     
  35. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO this is a symptom of puting detail on very small images of the forecast output.. All charts showed some red (100mm+) along the coastal strip. But the visual output of the model has to get from red colour to no colour within a small amount of pixels. As a result the image shows precipitation penetrating further inland than the actual model numbers would suggest.

    Data from the weekend shows that falls along the coast in east gippsland and further inland to places like gelantipy and bombala were 50mm+. Up in the mountains there was 40mm. On the western side of the mountains there would have been bugger all so really things happened as the models suggested, just that the accuracy of the visual output is limited due to scaling.

    When looking at the charts you need to apply some weather knowledge and experience in determining what is likely to happen. For example, knowing that the mountains block precipitation and realising falls just a short distance on the leeward side of the ranges will be bugger all compared to what falls on the windward side of the ranges.

    Need to also understand the limitations of models. GFS and AXS 10 day are based on a large grid so do not account for topography as well as AXS R which is based on a much smaller grid. Hence why AXS R spits out very splotchy plots of precipitation compared the the larger scaled (smoothed) longer period models.
     
  36. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Big red blob on the radar incoming. Should wash some of that foam down the Murray :out:
     
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  37. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hopefully the source along with it.
     
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  38. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Radar looks the goods for NSW, reckon it's a touch far north for Hotham/Falls.
     
  39. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Cheers, makes perfect sense
     
  40. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    report from DP is its cold enough but no precipiatation
     
  41. Camelot

    Camelot One of Us

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  42. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Some good coldies coming off the bay here in Melbourne.
     
  44. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Heavy showers passing over Melbourne - from SW looking promising for southern hills tonight.

    I notice temps around 12-13C SW of Port Phillip & 15-16 in city/east - so a cooler wave heading towards resorts. ;)
     
  45. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Shower just rolled over Prahran
     
  46. fletch

    fletch One of Us

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  47. Amelia1810

    Amelia1810 One of Us

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    Bit of a shower in Adelaide
     
  48. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still raining on the border, pretty steady since about 12:30. Perisher/Thredbo will do okay.
     
  49. dossa5

    dossa5 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    A few flurries in Freeburgh
    Havent seen that for a while.
    Hasnt risen past 6c all day. Neg temps comimg off the hill this morning.
     
  50. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    Buller looks to be just getting washed out on cams... I do hope it snows at some point tonight
     
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