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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jun 12, 2014.
Puking at P.
Looking at the cams, Perisher appears to have done relatively well out of this. Interesting with the temps still marginal in the valley.
Snow just about all gone down here at Davenport. Winds gusting up to 96kmh during the night. It's looks cold enough now but no moisture...
Thredbo claiming 20cm up high, and Perisher 15cm overnight.
WOw even Selwyn got some love out of this.
Thredbo looking good from the cat shed up.
What happened at Hotham? Did the rain wash all the snow away?
Looks like 20mm since it turned to snow.
So I would say probably 10-15cm.
From the cams, looks like thredbo has been able to open merrits with the new snow
down below 1700 yes, above 1700 is still there but definitely rain affected...
I suspect they have just sent all of the beginners classes up there that usually walk around Friday Flat.
Looks like it just needs a little more, or a night of snowmaking, and Merrits will be away for 2014.
Not a bad result but not a lot to get over excited about. Good news is they should be snowmaking overnight every night for a week or so in the majors. A follow up system or two will get us off to a reasonable start.
Up at Perisher to collect 4 year olds gear. Snow from about skirider.
Sun out now but a cold wind from the south.
Headed into jax while the mrs and 4yo hit up the carpet
Heard they may get the V8 going, can you see it moving Loweee?
Cams show people on the V8 and people coming down the main slope area. And Perisher lift report has the V8 on green
A couple of big freezes, some snowmaking and natural stuff this week should get a bit going at P by next weekend. Temps staying low and no rain to ruin it. With temps low we may get into the negatives early tonight.
I observe GFS was fairly over optimistic with ECL moisture & duration. Low moving NE faster than most models picked, taking moisture with it IMO Little slider front looks ok, could surprise if holds it's juice, be nice if Buller/Hotham & Falls got a sprinkle to blow some man made on top of all week...IMO
The small follow up front about to go through Melbourne, hoping it keeps its moisture going through all resorts
Sounds like a fairly typical G-Frog-S type scenario - it always goes for whacko ECLs
Not sure why GFS goes for such optimistic moisture imprints on this ecl's given the trailing high was 1034 hp and acts as a Great Wall preventing deep rainfall penetration west of the coast. Granted there were some big falls in the far east of gippsland, but certainly not the totals it progged for more western resorts of falls and buller. I guess I'm just annoyed those hills missed out on a sprinkle but with marginal temps it was never going to happen anyways. Stoked for thredbo tho, I have skied the vic resorts plenty but thredbo is my choice of late, love the vertical and snow quality up high more consistent. On topic, rain here in Essendon, steady and cold, hopefully gets the ball rolling for vic hills. How good does the next 10 days look?! Significant snow early next week IMO
Mt William's temp went up with the passing of this rainband. Looks more like a Leeuwin Current warm front to me near the surface, with some colder air aloft....
Still very little sign of a direct hit of polar modified air for us.
Hotham -2.5, Buller -0.4, Falls -0.8.
Damned cold in Narby! Persistent rain. Feels like winter at last
No idea what's going on the mountain as there's no camera updates
Now that would be intriguing. Temps fluctuating in NSW this morning but dropping now. We'll soon know.
Snowing at Buller according to a few FB posts I've just seen.
looks to be raining at hotham with temps at -1.2???
Snowing at Davenport, Hotham (barely though)
Not exactly winter in Melbourne atm - 16.5c
Certainly winter in Albury. Car says 10oC outside and feels every bit that cold.
13.6 in eastern suburbs and feels a bit winter like. Radar shows some showers on their way.
Not sure if snow or fog on Perisher cams ATM.
Below 0C however
Raining in Albury.
Shower crossing Prahran
IMO this is a symptom of puting detail on very small images of the forecast output.. All charts showed some red (100mm+) along the coastal strip. But the visual output of the model has to get from red colour to no colour within a small amount of pixels. As a result the image shows precipitation penetrating further inland than the actual model numbers would suggest.
Data from the weekend shows that falls along the coast in east gippsland and further inland to places like gelantipy and bombala were 50mm+. Up in the mountains there was 40mm. On the western side of the mountains there would have been bugger all so really things happened as the models suggested, just that the accuracy of the visual output is limited due to scaling.
When looking at the charts you need to apply some weather knowledge and experience in determining what is likely to happen. For example, knowing that the mountains block precipitation and realising falls just a short distance on the leeward side of the ranges will be bugger all compared to what falls on the windward side of the ranges.
Need to also understand the limitations of models. GFS and AXS 10 day are based on a large grid so do not account for topography as well as AXS R which is based on a much smaller grid. Hence why AXS R spits out very splotchy plots of precipitation compared the the larger scaled (smoothed) longer period models.
Big red blob on the radar incoming. Should wash some of that foam down the Murray
Hopefully the source along with it.
Radar looks the goods for NSW, reckon it's a touch far north for Hotham/Falls.
Cheers, makes perfect sense
report from DP is its cold enough but no precipiatation
Rain now at Davenport , and up top too looking at Fletchcam: http://www.nickfletcher.com/webcam/
Starting freeze too.......
Some good coldies coming off the bay here in Melbourne.
Heavy showers passing over Melbourne - from SW looking promising for southern hills tonight.
I notice temps around 12-13C SW of Port Phillip & 15-16 in city/east - so a cooler wave heading towards resorts.
Shower just rolled over Prahran
In the negs at Hotham http://www.mthotham.co/weather.html
Bit of a shower in Adelaide
Still raining on the border, pretty steady since about 12:30. Perisher/Thredbo will do okay.
A few flurries in Freeburgh
Havent seen that for a while.
Hasnt risen past 6c all day. Neg temps comimg off the hill this morning.
Buller looks to be just getting washed out on cams... I do hope it snows at some point tonight