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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Astro66, Jun 9, 2015.
I know it's a long way out. But it looks like a big, prolonged, wet event. imo.
Do not like ----- no!
Latest GFS run has a little cold air and front in the tail end of this mess
But it is 192 out, and as stated elsewhere there is considerable divergence between models
Looks like a season reset system, with hopefully something to get started again on the tail end IMO
sums it all up.
How anyone can drill down a model right now.
Below is showing.
Upper level cold pool
not particularly cold.
cold enough for snow
no models are showing this
so the models have no idea
Spag has had something like the above for days now, yaaaa
EC this morn has about 20mm of moisture, pretty much all above zero. Booooo
Reckon the period immediately after this date range is looking much more promising.
Looks like a lot of weather happening next week.very good for the farms in nsw and qld.borderline for the resorts,however there is still a chance for good snowfalls.imo
A tough week coming up for thin, fragile June cover IMO ... look at those Hobart pressures (so much for my '14 June', a fortnight ago). Might be something-something on the end of it all (21-22 June??), but as Donza points out, spag is about as divergent as it gets ATM.
The AAO seems to be trending gradually lower (good). MJO is in its worst sector (2&3), but gradually working around to where we want it (5&6). Maybe by the end of the month.
Love the chart above. Where do you find this site????
GFS showing some potential this morning - that is linking up with spag and cool uppers. Although others may disapprove of GFS posting. I like the movement of these charts and general vibe. Too much cool air and moisture for it to do nothing. Definitely a system to watch.
EC looks wet IMO
Can nicely see how the AAO was neg around the start of June, hopefully gets back down there again.
Hmm, looking a little 2005.
got a archive chart?
Yeah does look a little bit wet - but watching all the same. The next chart 6hrs later provides more clues : south westerly air flow. Could be a lot of rain followed by a bit of snow - but I am betting that it could be almost all snow or a dud forecast chart.
I don't know.
05 was very wet over the mountains and dry in the west of Vic.
You thinking temps-wise? A degree too warm all the time?
Nope, but got a memory. It went like this:
Lots of pre-frontal, then good snow (30-50cms) to build a base.
The a rain event, back to zero.
Repeat everywhere below 1700m for the entire season. The number of times i'd see Buller's village square looking beautiful then 2 days later back to concrete was very depressing. Perisher was good though.
sounds like main range kinda weather.
Main Range got plenty rain too
Even Hotham and Falls had a few false starts and rebuilds during that season. The most depressing thing was that there was so much rain, if the temps had been 1-2C lower then it would have been an almost all-time season, but it wasnt.
What I was getting at.
Maybe 5 x 100mm events that year.
Eildon got up around 70% after the early naughties drought- then 06 happened. Crikey, most depressing season ever.)
Nowhere escaped prefrontal rain in 05
Was one mega low snow event though too.
And then everyones hopes were up, which got washed away.
2005 had near a metre at spencers by the 23rd of June.
Then it poured ....
That's the one.
snow/sleet on the peninsula in the higher areas and snow at sea level inverloch and Gippsland
NSW had its low snow event on the 9th July that year.
This is the chart
Starting to drift of topic here
Suggest this discussion goes here ...
I blame this system. It's gone off topic itself.
I still blame Feb 2005 for the 2005 ski season.
I kind of agree. This is a week out and its gonna swing and sway as we call it it so maybe need to keep it interesting to stay on the pulse.
BOM Access G has lots of mild to cool air lingering about through the date period - which at this time of year will snow a bit IMO>
I think maybe we towed behind a 4wd all the way from outside Dalgety to the edge of the Dividing Range at Cathcart /Tantawangalow. What about the event in the 60's where they lost a train at Nimmitabell.
I blame that Drought breaker for 06, especially in the other thread
Looks Wet until the cold arrives around the 21st
GFS 00 UTC still liking it. Although the difference from the 12 UTC run is so remarkable I'm not buying it yet.
mate the ensembles look like vomit on shagpile
I'm not even on a fence on this one, I'm on a boat.
BTW I don't think GFS likes it. Its a fallback position for GFS. Throw a Tasman low in the mix and ramp up the cold air on the peripheral.
Yeh, IMO it's more likely to end up with an ECL than how it looks right now, which could be ok for higher NSW. Lots of ifs and buts though.
EC/yr.no much better on latest run. Both GfS and EC now seem to support 10-20cm at majors, although GFS, in partic, would have plenty of clear stuff first.
Of course too early to say anything with any confidence, but the thread's here, and that's what models are showing IMO.
ECL probably relies on a bit of SST oomph which I don't think is there anymore..
Prefrontal rain doesn't matter. We are already back to zero away from man made.
Just to show you how much GFS is changing from run to run ...
Giggles; a metre at selwyn down to 900 meters
Yup, got to Falls Creek literally 5 minutes into the event as rain turned to sleet, then dumpage on and off most of the week.
Not Hokkaido dry, but Cabbage Patch, Y's & Gully Glades were insane Wed/Thurs, hunted laps off inter like wolves. All time epic quality IMO
That progression is almost stock standard for gfs.
Poor frog. Head would be spinning
not really.... Chart changes completely from day to day, simply change forecast completely from day to day.
It's a BOM plot of NOAA data, from here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ (sorry, usually link such things)
No objection to GFS plots from me; after the big January upgrade it is potentially one of the very best models. It maybe still suffers from a bit of GIGO in our region (how good is the automated data assimilation?).
Thanks as always Jane. Love your work.
IMO the models are firming up (to Tuesday at least) and I suspect we won't be seeing much of anything TBH. Precip perhaps up to 10mm over the alps at marginal temps.
Most the the moisture seems to be missing either to the NE or to the west, which might not be a bad thing.
Note that EC and GFS ensembles are pretty solid until Tuesday, but indicate a fair bit of uncertainty after that.
Weatherzone is predicting a widespread r**n event to help drought affected areas:
From late tonight and early tomorrow, these thundery showers will be localised to the Gulf Country and North West districts of Queensland. On Friday, this rain will linger around these areas, but a few showers will extend into the Northern Territory and northern South Australia.
Saturday is when things will really kick off. A series of troughs will work together to dampen much of the interior with storms and showers.
The main relief for farmers looks to come on Sunday, when large areas of rain should trek across western Queensland and New South Wales. Widespread falls in excess of 15mm are looking to occur around Windorah. Heavy showers should persist, with rainfall totals over the next week looking to be widespread up to 30-50mm for much of inland parts of southern Queensland and widespread totals up to 25mm across western New South Wales.
For places such as Isisford and Winton, this could be the heaviest June rainfall event in three years.
Conditions inland will then gradually ease from around Thursday 18th. Although the rain event will not be drought-breaking, it will bring some much needed moisture to the soil.