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Predictions June 14th - 18th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Astro66, Jun 9, 2015.

  1. zar

    zar One of Us

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  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS at 00UTC is still looking pretty ugly.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Then the cut-off low comes in to play

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    and EC

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Probably a more realistic progression IMO
     
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  4. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Always
     
  5. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I see nothing good here.
     
  6. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Axs likes the 18th
     
  7. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Cold... but not overly.
    Not quite cutoff.
    with the right moisture could puke.
    Moreso for NSW IMO
    [​IMG]
     
  8. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo

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    15th to 17th. Warm and wet. imo. This looks ugly.

    [​IMG]
     
  9. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    But the progression of that chart is illogical IMO.
     
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  10. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    The only thing going for the date range is that we are approaching the shortest days of the year.
    Less sun can mean less warmth.
     
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  11. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    The spag looks pretty decent in a bunch of ways
     
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  12. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo

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    18th onwards maybe. imo.

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    You cant make solid predictions based on the charts right now IMO.
     
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  14. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    As bad as this looks, some drought affected areas are finally getting some rain. They need rain more than we need snow IMO.
     
  15. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its never a great sign when a system approaching starts to be getting labelled "good for the farmers system"
     
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  16. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Reckon this is a 50mm system at very very worst, with Vic possibly less.
    Is bigger all offpiste anyway so hardly a disaster at this time of year.
    Looks to be a good southerly blast for baw baw back end on AXS.
    GFS just looks wacky atm.
    EC ?? Charts please CC
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    IMO looks messy and confused.
    Based on EC a little rain & possibly snow above 1800 later, still think most of the moisture will miss the alps.
    Perhaps something on the 21st and 22nd but given the uncertainty in the models I wouldn't be betting on it yet.
     
  18. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    I agree with Donz & Verm, most models don't show a 'realistic' pressure movement progression YET, which is not a bad thing I reckon. A week ago it was looking like ONLY a massive pineapple express, but things are evolving run to run. The troughs triggering the inland rain event after a week of onshore inflow from the big high make perfect sense, but the high' moving through the Southern Ocean cradling everything is a bit whack IMO. I think the models can't get a grip on freezing level cause they can't figure out when the tropical origin air mass is bumped out by a colder pool of air originating from the South west. IMO Wednesday when the winds go SSW seems to be the go.
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  20. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    That high is just sitting way to low.
    Just doesnt look right for a second.
     
  21. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    nah it happens.
    it can go two ways
     
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  22. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The chart above just kinda makes it look like Australia moved north 1500km. Just looks wack
     
  23. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah i agree.
    The spag isn't showing that for the record.
    [​IMG]

    The next few days after that look quite tidy IMO
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS ensemble spag looks "settled" until the 18th. EC is perhaps less so, confidence only out to the 17th.
    IMO
     
  25. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO you're thinking way too much about something that's too far away to be thinking too much about. All i'll say is that in 10+ years of looking at this, the shape of the high and it's progression is unusual.
     
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  26. Cubed

    Cubed Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]

    Even more unusual from this perspective
     
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  27. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    If the High under SA does set up like that then it is going to draw up some mighty cold air from Antarctica.
     
  28. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    I
    Isn't that what I just said? o_O

    I'm not so much thinking about it, more wondering what model is gunna get the grip first...
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    We knew this was coming on GFS
    ECL time.

    [​IMG]
     
  30. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    If EC comes off.
    It could be nuclear
     
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  31. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    East coast is going to be rocking with some tidy bit of swell .
    Still a week out but maybe some goodness looking here.

     
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  32. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It sure is good to have a few different options pursuit wise
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    :confused:

    Looks terrible to me. High 850hPa temps, lots of wet for NSW. Do not want.
     
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  34. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Just wait padwan
     
  35. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I'll explain when I don't have a glass of cab sav spilt all over the floor
     
  36. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    No.
    You shall explain now.

    (getting glass myself for said entertaining answer)
     
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  37. incogski

    incogski One of Us

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    this better be good
     
  38. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    For Nsw *
     
  39. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't glass yourself, the explanation can't be that :eek:
     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    No matter how I look at it, it's not good.

    IMO
     
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  41. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Donza sees this through mint coloured glasses...
     
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  42. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    FIFY
     
  43. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM are calling a r**n event on Tuesday.
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO it doesn't look any better today.
     
  45. melty68

    melty68 One of Us

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    Australia is a strange continent....there has been a few years when highs have hung low and lows have gone south and then sucked up cold air from antarctica and dumped big time.
     
  46. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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  47. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I bet $5 its not 0, this will start wet, but my money is on a few cents before its over. So I am calling at least 3cm at Spencers by Thursday.
     
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  48. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo

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    Oh dear ........ This is tomorrow thru till Tuesday. The ugly liquid monster descends from the North. God help us all. :(

    Oops forgot. IMO. ;)

    [​IMG]
     
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  49. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    #goodforthefarmersaggeddon
     
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  50. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Hmmm, down 8 cm on the week to just 5 cm two days ago, so will need a top-up. Best chance is probably Wednesday ... it's snowed before from a setup like that (e.g. 17-18 August last year), but always with associated upper cold. Not even close ATM:

    [​IMG]
     
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