Predictions June 14th - 18th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Astro66, Jun 9, 2015.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Off EC ...
    Could be be snow above 2000m on Wednesday, but marginal.
    Snow level could level could drop to 1600m on Thursday, but it's dried up a bit by then.

    IMO

    GFS progression is pretty nasty

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG] [​IMG]
    ECL time!
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  2. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    NSW BOM has snow every day
     
  3. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well lol to that nonsense imo
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Possible at 2200m so they wouldn't be wrong.
    Pretty useless otherwise.
    IMO
     
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  5. Driftwood

    Driftwood Addicted

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    If there ends up being a few cm's in the tail Thurs/Fri, it would be a good outcome from this situation. End of the month looks the goods atm.
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC - tonights run

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Just hope the bulk of the moisture misses to the NE. That would seem the best outcome. IMO
     
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  7. Driftwood

    Driftwood Addicted

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    Looks like it's heading out to sea quicker on this run, that can only help.
     
  8. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Gold Chowds!
     
  9. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is wet. Started wet. Still wett. Will be wet.
     
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  10. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    Is there any hope for the lick of cold on the access chart that has been there on we'd and thurs every two days ? It's back on the chart this morning . It looks like the moisture has gone but at least there is coldness there
     
  11. BH

    BH One of Us

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    I'm liking the access chart....this mighten be all that bad after all....fingers are crossed. GFS chart for next week looks interesting....
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Thursday has hope above 1800m (perhaps 1600m if we're lucky) off the latest EC run.
    Mostly for NSW, Vic will probably miss out, but that's not a bad thing given the freeze level.
    IMO
     
  13. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    This shows the Cold Pool arriving late Thursday.

    [​IMG]

    And this is the moisture for the same period. Seeing a little overlap.

    [​IMG]
     
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  14. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Matters to snow-making I guess; not to natural cover, of which little will remain by then anyway. Decent chance of some action early Thursday on the latest runs. IMO.
     
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  15. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Now make the gifs sync ;);) (Time BOM did something like that for us.)
     
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  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Latest EC I would be saying 10-15mm precip on Tuesday & Wednesday, freeze levels around 2000m perhaps a bit more.
    Thursday I would be saying 10mm with a freeze level around 1600-1700m.
    IMO

    22nd looking better.
     
  17. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    That southeasterly is cold enough for us. ben could get a bit - we will miss that warm rain , we have got big snow from systems like this before - fingers crossed
     
  18. dmzm

    dmzm Hard Yards

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    Best to hope for is a net gain imo, at least for NSW. The warm temps over the last week havent been kind to the cover so at least there's not too much to wash away.
     
  19. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Snot from Tuesday Evening through till Friday Morning for Main Ranges in NSW. Might be a good base builder.

    Cool level uppers give me cause for believing in the beast of optimism :blb:



    [​IMG]
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO those uppers are not cold. You're really looking at -25 or better for "cold uppers".
     
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  21. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I'm optimistic that those with high hopes for this system aren't too disappointed.
     
  22. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    The NSW BoM is liking Wed-Thurs

    Wednesday 17 June
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of rain, falling as snow above 1600 metres. Light winds becoming south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the evening.

    Chance of snow
    60% at 1800m
    10% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m

    Thursday 18 June
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of rain, most likely in the morning and afternoon and falling as snow above 1100 metres. Winds southeast to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light during the afternoon.

    Chance of snow
    80% at 1800m
    50% at 1400m
    10% at 1000m​
     
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  23. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  24. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Predicting Main Range skiing outta Thredbo Top Station this coming w/e.
     
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  25. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    And snow (up high)
     
  26. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pffft ....... #ChildsPlay :cool:

    [​IMG]
     
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  27. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    I'm goin with the bom here . Two charts in row with cold on thurs fri and now with moisture thurs . I cant remember exactly when it was but a few years back I was sitting in thredbo about head out back it clouded over from these and started dumping . Not a whole lot of wind but a really good dump . It was forecasted but looking at the maps we were a bit unsure
     
  28. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Probably getting quite off topic but there are plenty of good snow-bearing systems that aren't tracked in these threads from days out, they materialise in the right place at the right time.
     
  29. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    A slight twinge in me snow bunion .......
     
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  30. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Down boy, down
     
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  31. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    I'm speaking for nsw here but yes there will be some r*** we'd but there is no natural stuff to wreck ,the man made shouldn't suffer too much and hopefully about 20 cm at the back end so fingers crossed not a bad outcome and happy farmers too
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Can't see 20cm out of the tail TBH.
     
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  33. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Dustings
     
  34. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    I can see up 5 to 10cm of wet snow at tail and then days of negative temps ,good for snowmaking followed by a more promising system.
    IMO
     
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  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yep, that's more like it.
     
  36. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perisher snowmakers are factoring 20-40mm of r##n this week :(
     
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  37. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    It will depend on how much moisture is left after the temps drop. If it turns cold late Wednesday. I think we could still get 20cm.
     
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  38. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    rain then 5cm imo
     
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  39. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking at yr no there could be 15cm in the tail for the higher NSW resorts. Wet slushy stuff.
     
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  40. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dont be optimisitc in the middle of June. Especially putting your eggs on a pineapple.
     
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  41. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    T-bo hotham jindy and Bombala
    will get some love IMO
    AXS-R shows the same thing
    5360 thickness over the coast is not to be sneezed at
    [​IMG]
     
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  42. Dacer

    Dacer Hard Yards

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    That's quite a lot of moisture coming from the south east. I feel like moisture coming from that direction never reaches the nsw resorts. What's the reason for that?
     
  43. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    There is alot of topo between the coast and the ski fields therefore can drop its juice before it gets there. Kind of like a rain shadow effect
     
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  44. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    dinner plain could top the class in this one
     
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  45. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    yr no has backed off the moisture at the head/middle of this system which would be a good thing. Still looking OK for 15cm for the higher NSW resorts IMO.
     
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  46. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks OK here .
    Big south fetch should be nice cold viz 850 chart , tick
    Swell going to be pumping too.

     
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  47. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    Forecast is up, and there's a lot more confidence in the details now the models are making sense:


    Today is the last of the warm and dry weather.

    Tropical moisture has built up over the interior of the country. Low pressure troughs have formed. An upper level trough will let a main low centre form over South Australia today and push it over Victoria tomorrow, bringing a period of rain to Alpine areas (15 to 30 mm).

    Cooler air arrives on Wednesday afternoon, letting it snow down to around 1700 metres, then cold air arrives on Thursday (snow down to 1500 metres in the morning, then 1300 metres in the afternoon) – but what precipitation is left?

    There should be one final surge (a trough) as the low moves away, bringing a period of snow from Wednesday afternoon to Friday morning (15 to 25 cm).

    The next high moves across us later Friday, and on the weekend, encouraging dry weather. There should be enough lingering cold air to bring good snowmaking conditions this time. The next weather system arrives on Tuesday or Wednesday next week, and looks promising for snow.

    REST OF TODAY:

    A dry day with cloud thickening. Light NE winds becoming breezy later. Rain developing tonight.

    Day by day forecast: http://www.janesweather.com/snowforecast
     
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  48. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO we're lucky that most of the moisture is missing the alps.

    [​IMG]
     
  50. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah I concur.
    You can feel it on the coast at the moment.
    Its moist and cool.
     
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