Predictions June 14th - 18th

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Astro66, Jun 9, 2015.

  1. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes rain started already Sth Coast.
     
  2. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    Sounds good and what I like to hear.
     
  3. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]

    funky weird with snow and rain IMO
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Up high on Thursday, but dries up on Friday when it gets cold IMO
     
  5. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    cold air arrives early thursday....
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I wouldn't call it cold.
    Cooler.
    Cold is Friday.
    Perhaps Thursday afternoon as the 500hPa pool moves in from the west.
    GFS suggests perhaps around 3pm? But it also suggests it's dried up by then.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  7. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    BOM chart suggest there is Plenty of COOL enough air in the upper Atm for Tuesday Night / Wednesday snot base building up high. Not much snow after this IMO as the system is fated to develop in the central Tasman IMO. Not a good system bar the highest peaks on the Western Main Range- but its a good system for this location.

    The next system in the date looks epic but stalling over WA but that will change as the ECL develops and moves along in time.

    It looks Okay.
    [​IMG]
     
  8. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    snow in strange spots part two
     
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  9. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    Based on ACCESG For NSW alpine. 30mm of r?*n on Tuesday, then 15cm of snow above 1700m on Wednesday then another 15cm on Thursday above 1400m. Ideal snow making conditions until next system comes through. Not a bad system for mid June, if it comes off, it could easily go horrible but.
     
  10. Driftwood

    Driftwood Addicted

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    Great to hear there is talk of snow today, considering.
     
  11. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Its going to rain
    its going to snow
    neither of them will be a pleasant experience IMO
     
  12. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    I actually hate posting this. But I just don't see it. imo

    This is the moisture and 850's from now till late Wednesday. The coldest 850's is about 4 deg. imo

    Astro sees no love. Sorry. :( imo

    I would love to be wrong. :)

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'm with Astro. Can see perhaps a bit of snow above 2000m on Wednesday, and lowering perhaps a bit Thursday afternoon, but it dries up quick. I see bugger all at 1400m, perhaps a dusting late-ish in the piece.
     
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  14. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    10 or 15 Thursday based purely on Access R.
    Tomoz going to be say ground cooling at best. :rolleyes:
    Cold air arrives too late this time.
    Still early days .
     
  15. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is certainly a system where knowing about weather helps. Basics not applicable here. Keen to see how it unfolds.
     
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  16. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Best to avoid the cams tomorrow would be my advice
     
  17. Falls expat

    Falls expat One of Us

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    Well this is interesting. Corin covering their snow with tarps. I have often thought this should be used in places on main resorts when a known rain event is coming. [​IMG]
     
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  18. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Great minds think alike, can't believe they don't do this at Friday flat, combined with refrigeration pipes in the ground I reckon it could be a goer :)
     
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  19. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    This covers both systems but here's my take this morning:

     
  20. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sounds about right Jane.
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    @Donza Which of the NSW does best out of a SE stream?
    Thursday is looking better for me, but I don't think it will help the Vic resorts that much (except dinner plain if the snow level is low enough).
     
  22. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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  23. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I'll post a pic soon
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Could do ok IMO
     
  25. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    [​IMG]

    You can see why Thredbo does well from SE snow. Gets funnelled up the valley.
     
  26. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah a lot of moisture progged.
    Its a snow in JIndy system IMO
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    What would be the difference between Perisher and Thredbo? Eg if Thredbo gets 15cm on Thursday (which is possible), what would you expect Perisher get?
     
  28. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    maybe a 1/3 less.
    Yet , Perisher has way more terrain above the magic 1600 metre number.
    So in some ways it balances out.
    It will be horrible snow... , claggy
    I've ridden in a few of these storms and I can't say its the most enjoyable.
    Saying that though .If it gets cold straight after it can set up really well and is easy to groom
     
  29. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Looking at axs-r , 15cm looks conservative
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS shows a lot more too.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    850hPa temps are still rather warm but 500 hPa are getting there at -24C
     
  31. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    [QUOTE
    A good dump of claggy snot will be fine if the following temps set it like concrete. The knee deep drifts of elephant snot we had last August were a net positive. If it comes off a follow up next week may open terrain in time for the school hols. Too close to call but looking better for snot than liquid snow.
     
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  32. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    No sheep graziers alerts yet.
     
  33. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    lets not forget Selwyn.. they can do well from these and have a look what yr.no says for Cabramurra

    [​IMG]
     

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  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Temperatures could be an issue though.
     
  35. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM PV forecast looks OK to me :)
     
  36. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon overnight they'll be ok. Remember this is for Cabramurra.. so has a bit of altitude on it.
    also I reckon using yr.no for Selwyn, adding a bit of optimism to Cabramurra seems to be more realistic than looking at three mile dam or kiandra.. don't ask me why.
     
  37. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is moisture from Midnight Wednesday to Midnight Thursday.
    I'm quietly confident the temps will come to the party. [​IMG] imo

    [​IMG]
     
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  38. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    yr,no have been way out on overnight temps. Of late have been around 3 or more degrees lower than what the actual was (Buller forecast).

    I have been wishing they were right!!
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Depends upon which "buller" you're looking at. Yr.no has a reading for the village and another for the summit - the AWS is just above the village IIRC.
     
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  40. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    This is a Mount Hutt system IMO.
    albeit on the eastern seaboard
     
  41. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    For this system:

    A complex area of low pressure is moving across the eastern half of the nation today – and there’s two low centres that will affect the alps. There’s plenty of moisture (and fog) but there’s no cold air – so this continues as rain today. It comes down from the north this morning, then changes with the passing of a low, to come in from the southeast. Eastern resorts may see 20 to 30 millimetres of rain today.

    But there’s a surge of colder air coming up from the southwest. A front has slipped away, but an upper level cold pool is bringing a new burst of precipitation and the much needed colder air.

    Snow should start falling down to 1700 metres tomorrow morning, and lower to 1400 metres in the afternoon and evening, then around 1200 metres on Friday. It’s not as heavy by Friday, but there should be 10 to 25 cm of snow (mainly up high) by the weekend.
     
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  42. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    Could that be a good setup for the next lot of systems next week?
     
  43. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The snow dump right turn. With COLD upper level temps forecast this may dump on Dividing Range (brown mountain)

    [​IMG]
     
  44. Ralph_implement

    Ralph_implement A Local

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    Stay on topic.
     
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  45. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    So lets look at tomorrow.

    The Cold Pool seems to hit the VIC resorts before lunchtime. And NSW just after lunchtime. IMO.

    So expect the conversion from rain to snow just after these times. IMO.

    [​IMG]

    This is the moisture till about 4am on friday, when it seems to leave the NSW resorts. But there is some residual moisture till late on Friday. IMO.

    This is definitely a moisture system that favours the NSW resorts, but even slides North of them, when it's most intense. IMO

    I predicting 5-10cm VIC and 10-15cm NSW. IMO.

    [​IMG]
     
  46. Alexski

    Alexski Addicted

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    Cold has hit now (1.5 in PV) its snow from here on, radar looking good for NSW.
     
  47. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Definitely trending in the right direction, but still a bit warm, IMO.

    As Jane said. Up high, snow early morning. Then lowering as that cold pool moves North.

    [​IMG]
     
  48. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thread needs extending

    We may be underestimating Friday's snowfalls IMO.
     
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  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO I'm seeing bugger all on Friday, certainly beyond the morning.
     
  50. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    So bom is still forecasting snow this arvo and tonight down to 1100 m . Is this wishful thinking or is much colder air about to hit?