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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Astro66, Jun 9, 2015.
Yes rain started already Sth Coast.
Sounds good and what I like to hear.
funky weird with snow and rain IMO
Up high on Thursday, but dries up on Friday when it gets cold IMO
cold air arrives early thursday....
I wouldn't call it cold.
Cold is Friday.
Perhaps Thursday afternoon as the 500hPa pool moves in from the west.
GFS suggests perhaps around 3pm? But it also suggests it's dried up by then.
BOM chart suggest there is Plenty of COOL enough air in the upper Atm for Tuesday Night / Wednesday snot base building up high. Not much snow after this IMO as the system is fated to develop in the central Tasman IMO. Not a good system bar the highest peaks on the Western Main Range- but its a good system for this location.
The next system in the date looks epic but stalling over WA but that will change as the ECL develops and moves along in time.
It looks Okay.
snow in strange spots part two
Based on ACCESG For NSW alpine. 30mm of r?*n on Tuesday, then 15cm of snow above 1700m on Wednesday then another 15cm on Thursday above 1400m. Ideal snow making conditions until next system comes through. Not a bad system for mid June, if it comes off, it could easily go horrible but.
Great to hear there is talk of snow today, considering.
Its going to rain
its going to snow
neither of them will be a pleasant experience IMO
I actually hate posting this. But I just don't see it. imo
This is the moisture and 850's from now till late Wednesday. The coldest 850's is about 4 deg. imo
Astro sees no love. Sorry. imo
I would love to be wrong.
I'm with Astro. Can see perhaps a bit of snow above 2000m on Wednesday, and lowering perhaps a bit Thursday afternoon, but it dries up quick. I see bugger all at 1400m, perhaps a dusting late-ish in the piece.
10 or 15 Thursday based purely on Access R.
Tomoz going to be say ground cooling at best.
Cold air arrives too late this time.
Still early days .
This is certainly a system where knowing about weather helps. Basics not applicable here. Keen to see how it unfolds.
Best to avoid the cams tomorrow would be my advice
Well this is interesting. Corin covering their snow with tarps. I have often thought this should be used in places on main resorts when a known rain event is coming.
Great minds think alike, can't believe they don't do this at Friday flat, combined with refrigeration pipes in the ground I reckon it could be a goer
This covers both systems but here's my take this morning:
Sounds about right Jane.
@Donza Which of the NSW does best out of a SE stream?
Thursday is looking better for me, but I don't think it will help the Vic resorts that much (except dinner plain if the snow level is low enough).
I'll post a pic soon
Could do ok IMO
You can see why Thredbo does well from SE snow. Gets funnelled up the valley.
Yeah a lot of moisture progged.
Its a snow in JIndy system IMO
What would be the difference between Perisher and Thredbo? Eg if Thredbo gets 15cm on Thursday (which is possible), what would you expect Perisher get?
maybe a 1/3 less.
Yet , Perisher has way more terrain above the magic 1600 metre number.
So in some ways it balances out.
It will be horrible snow... , claggy
I've ridden in a few of these storms and I can't say its the most enjoyable.
Saying that though .If it gets cold straight after it can set up really well and is easy to groom
Looking at axs-r , 15cm looks conservative
GFS shows a lot more too.
850hPa temps are still rather warm but 500 hPa are getting there at -24C
A good dump of claggy snot will be fine if the following temps set it like concrete. The knee deep drifts of elephant snot we had last August were a net positive. If it comes off a follow up next week may open terrain in time for the school hols. Too close to call but looking better for snot than liquid snow.
No sheep graziers alerts yet.
lets not forget Selwyn.. they can do well from these and have a look what yr.no says for Cabramurra
Temperatures could be an issue though.
BOM PV forecast looks OK to me
I reckon overnight they'll be ok. Remember this is for Cabramurra.. so has a bit of altitude on it.
also I reckon using yr.no for Selwyn, adding a bit of optimism to Cabramurra seems to be more realistic than looking at three mile dam or kiandra.. don't ask me why.
This is moisture from Midnight Wednesday to Midnight Thursday.
I'm quietly confident the temps will come to the party. imo
yr,no have been way out on overnight temps. Of late have been around 3 or more degrees lower than what the actual was (Buller forecast).
I have been wishing they were right!!
Depends upon which "buller" you're looking at. Yr.no has a reading for the village and another for the summit - the AWS is just above the village IIRC.
This is a Mount Hutt system IMO.
albeit on the eastern seaboard
For this system:
A complex area of low pressure is moving across the eastern half of the nation today – and there’s two low centres that will affect the alps. There’s plenty of moisture (and fog) but there’s no cold air – so this continues as rain today. It comes down from the north this morning, then changes with the passing of a low, to come in from the southeast. Eastern resorts may see 20 to 30 millimetres of rain today.
But there’s a surge of colder air coming up from the southwest. A front has slipped away, but an upper level cold pool is bringing a new burst of precipitation and the much needed colder air.
Snow should start falling down to 1700 metres tomorrow morning, and lower to 1400 metres in the afternoon and evening, then around 1200 metres on Friday. It’s not as heavy by Friday, but there should be 10 to 25 cm of snow (mainly up high) by the weekend.
Could that be a good setup for the next lot of systems next week?
The snow dump right turn. With COLD upper level temps forecast this may dump on Dividing Range (brown mountain)
Stay on topic.
So lets look at tomorrow.
The Cold Pool seems to hit the VIC resorts before lunchtime. And NSW just after lunchtime. IMO.
So expect the conversion from rain to snow just after these times. IMO.
This is the moisture till about 4am on friday, when it seems to leave the NSW resorts. But there is some residual moisture till late on Friday. IMO.
This is definitely a moisture system that favours the NSW resorts, but even slides North of them, when it's most intense. IMO
I predicting 5-10cm VIC and 10-15cm NSW. IMO.
Cold has hit now (1.5 in PV) its snow from here on, radar looking good for NSW.
Definitely trending in the right direction, but still a bit warm, IMO.
As Jane said. Up high, snow early morning. Then lowering as that cold pool moves North.
Thread needs extending
We may be underestimating Friday's snowfalls IMO.
IMO I'm seeing bugger all on Friday, certainly beyond the morning.
So bom is still forecasting snow this arvo and tonight down to 1100 m . Is this wishful thinking or is much colder air about to hit?