Predictions June 22- 27

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Kletterer

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Models are showing some considerable interest in this period
GFS possibly a tad bullish at this stage.
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POW Hungry

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GFS yo-yoing, looking nothing like 00z Long Range (par for the course, I know).

06z is however siding with EC tonight, alluding to an early peaked cut off low.

If it comes off (anything like EC and GFS) it’s a dog breaky for us in the SE, IMO.
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Jellybeans

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Yeah nothing really inspiring on GFS tonight either.

The GFS and Canadian ensembles still show a signal, clearly still needs some time to resolve.
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The Fallen

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May 7, 2015
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Feed the trend.

temps are running below average for NSW and Northern Vic.

Unless we see a pineapple injection form the hard NE, I'd knock 1c out of projected temps.

We are 2 weeks into a very active polar rotation so we just want cold enough cutoff drifters to pass over and wait for 2nd week of July until the rotation favors us.

Build a slab of wet snot AND snow making between now and then and then let it do its business.

IMO
 

lewis

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Temps look borderline/not going to snow on yr.no at least for Thursday.

How good is EC for temps at this point?
 

The Fallen

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The low originates off Bremer Bay, WA...
I want nothing to do with this trans-Austral chit-show. Look at that NW feed.
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Thats's the pineapple I was fearing BUT give it 3 days.....

By Saturday morning, we will get a better look....

Bom is thinking a double header genisis in the western bight Sunday with a strong coldy driving it.

only issue is the leading HIGH slowing progression and draining the cold..... give it a few and the beans may come back.... 5 node is good

let it rotate for a few days and we will see.

1623937454914.png
 

snowgum

A Local
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Thats's the pineapple I was fearing BUT give it 3 days.....

By Saturday morning, we will get a better look....

Bom is thinking a double header genisis in the western bight Sunday with a strong coldy driving it.

only issue is the leading HIGH slowing progression and draining the cold..... give it a few and the beans may come back.... 5 node is good

let it rotate for a few days and we will see.

1623937454914.png

Howdy Fallen, all,

this cut-off/Vic Pineapple, is becoming a regular feature of the charts, so it seems it’s more than just chance. Any theories as to why this so? IO dipole, water temps, AO? (Lows are north)?
Cheers (not happy!)
 
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fletch

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I'm worried about rain and will probably start to focus on July systems ...... its a shame though given the excitement last week.
 
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skimax

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Howdy Fallen, all,

this cut-off/Vic Pineapple, is becoming a regular feature of the charts, so it seems it’s more than just chance. Any theories as to why this so? IO dipole, water temps, AO? (Lows are north)?
Cheers (not happy!)
Yep , climate shift related dunno , but the ability or otherwise for classic cold fronts to penetrate northwards is becoming less frequent i assume
 

snowgum

A Local
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Yep , climate shift related dunno , but the ability or otherwise for classic cold fronts to penetrate northwards is becoming less frequent i assume
My layman’s view (uni app maths met > 30 years ago now) is that the recent lows are making it to southern NSW latitudes. That’s fairly far north in my limited experience. But they’re stalling in the wrong location - at least for Vic- and warming as they linger?

To have snow in southeast QLD while it rains to the top of Hotham/Bogong is a bit weird but I guess not without president?

But I agree, the lack of classic, strong NW-SW fronts is worrying for now - It’s still fairly early my Aussie mainland standards? If this pattern or depths (Vic) continue in say a month, there will be some unhappy punters! Never mind resorts and smaller stakeholders!
 

POW Hungry

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Howdy Fallen, all,

this cut-off/Vic Pineapple, is becoming a regular feature of the charts, so it seems it’s more than just chance. Any theories as to why this so? IO dipole, water temps, AO? (Lows are north)?
Cheers (not happy!)

Neutral AAO & Negative Zonal winds in our region are disrupting & inhibiting the polar jet.
It's early in the season. Y'all need to be patient.
Wish to discuss further you can do so in the BBQ thread.
1624004307458.png
 
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