Predictions June 22- 27

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snowgum

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I see WA are getting whacked by this frontal system, with snow possible on the Stirlings:


Are their many examples where systems maintain their intensity and cold across the full width of Southern Aussie? I suspect not. Early winter/late autumn systems seem to favour WA & NZ over the SE? Is that the general view?
 

BlueHue

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Access 10 dayer seems to be suggesting a not unreasonable amount of precip when its cold enough for a second phase to this system, 10-20cm possible. Any chance of a decent top up from this I wonder. GFS not so much as ridging takes effect.

First front looks lost to me. Too warm and wet pre followed by too dry post.
 

iagreewithhim

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A very long way from everybody
Big WA systems can make it all the way across. I well remember being just about blown and washed off my back verandah by a cold front that came through on my birthday (July) a few years ago. Three days later I arrived at Hotham to a metre of fresh snow. However, smaller systems can fizzle out before they get to the alps or, more likely, slip away to the south.
 
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Donza

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The bad news.
I'll just call this.
Good for farmers.
bad news.png
 
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Donza

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80 to 100mm of rain for NSW.. Till friday early am
10 to 15cm of snow follows.
 

Snowmaker7

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FL will be 1800-2000m asl IMO. In NSW. Lower in Victoria say 1600-1800.

850hpa temps look a bit better in Victoria .
2 to 4 degrees at 1400 just west of the Alps.

The biggest problem is where the moisture is coming from.
EC, GFS and AXS have the snow level around 1600m in NSW with 850s around 1-2C IMO

As it stands IMO for NSW:
EC: Yr.no is saying that with EC the moisture is not reaching far east, with only 45-50mm followed by 20-25cm above 1600m
AXS: 50-60mm followed by 20-25cm above 1600m
GFS: Looks like an outlier, in that it has probably 60mm of rain followed by no snow, has it drying up pretty much completely by the time it is cold enough
 
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Donza

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EC, GFS and AXS have the snow level around 1600m in NSW with 850s around 1-2C IMO

As it stands IMO for NSW:
EC: Yr.no is saying that with EC the moisture is not reaching far east, with only 45-50mm followed by 20-25cm above 1600m
AXS: 50-60mm followed by 20-25cm above 1600m
GFS: Looks like an outlier, in that it has probably 60mm of rain followed by no snow, has it drying up pretty much completely by the time it is cold enough
Wednesday 22.00 to Thursday 22.00. Thats when the bulk of the moisture hits..
Particulary late wednesday to Thursday arvo.
This is typical of that time for 850 temps. 4 to 6 degrees at 1400 to 1440.

I've run the timestamps back and forwards.. I can't see much improvement in temps until Midnight Thursday into Friday am.
850.png
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

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Snowmaker7

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Wednesday 22.00 to Thursday 22.00. Thats when the bulk of the moisture hits..
Particulary late wednesday to Thursday arvo.
This is typical of that time for 850 temps. 4 to 6 degrees at 1400 to 1440.

I've run the timestamps back and forwards.. I can't see much improvement in temps until Midnight Thursday into Friday am.
850.png
By 10pm Thursday the 850s drop to 2-3C, then lower early Friday. Yes the bulk of the moisture has passed, but almost cold enough for snow to thred village for whatever moisture is left.

We will see!
 
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Jasper Schwarz

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There is a little bit of hope here on GFS this afternoon.
It's not great. There is still a large amount of rain, but the cold air is arriving over the mountains at about 12pm ish on thursday IMO according to GFS. It is cut off, and not very strong, but at least from there the moisture should be at the very least semi-solid
1624335543346.png

Got an "ok" back end on it though

1624335594291.png



Role on Early July.....
EDIT: if you don't think I am right, I would love to know why? I am trying to learn as I go and feedback is the best way to do it.
 

Donza

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There is a little bit of hope here on GFS this afternoon.
It's not great. There is still a large amount of rain, but the cold air is arriving over the mountains at about 12pm ish on thursday IMO according to GFS. It is cut off, and not very strong, but at least from there the moisture should be at the very least semi-solid
1624335543346.png

Got an "ok" back end on it though

1624335594291.png



Role on Early July.....
EDIT: if you don't think I am right, I would love to know why? I am trying to learn as I go and feedback is the best way to do it.
12pm Thursday ...as in lunch time?
 

absentskier

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Jun 10, 2010
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Latest thoughts on Hotham's forecast for this period? Rain tomorrow and Thursday, turning to snow later Thursday? Best guesstimate at snow levels until the colder air arrives?
 

Claude Cat

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Latest thoughts on Hotham's forecast for this period? Rain tomorrow and Thursday, turning to snow later Thursday? Best guesstimate at snow levels until the colder air arrives?
Looks to me turning to snow late Thursday night or early AM Friday.
Thursday as a whole is pretty rank.

IMO
 

Kletterer

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Dont expect any snow before sunrise Friday. As things begin cooling towards midnight thurs there is also a period of Subsidence - so the juice will back of for a few hours . 10 am Friday onwards looks ok for some reasonable falls imo.
 
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Jasper Schwarz

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BOM saying snow 1700m in their man-made forecast for thursday.
Seems optimistic given the numbers that have been thrown around here. Going for 50-80mm of wet before friday too, so thats also exciting.
 

Snowmaker7

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Dont expect any snow before sunrise Friday. As things begin cooling towards midnight thurs there is also a period of Subsidence - so the juice will back of for a few hours . 10 am Friday onwards looks ok for some reasonable falls imo.
I see 2C 850s on all models for nsw resorts by 10pm Thursday. Should be cold enough for 1600m+ shouldn't it?
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

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It looks grim on Thursday. Plenty of the pre cursor ingredient of snow will damage whatever snow/ snow making surface that remains.
 
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