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Predictions June 23rd - 30th System

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jun 15, 2014.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Starting to feel a bit more confident with this one.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  2. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks cold and wet
    Bring it on!
     
  3. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good positioning at this stage.
     
  4. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Fingers crossed it doesn't turn into one of the systems we just had. About time we had a decent SW system give us a direct hit.
     
  5. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Maybe some upper level moisture potential from the NW there as well.
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    looking epic on tonight's EC run.

    IMO
     
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  7. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tasty spag.
    [​IMG]
     
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  8. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Potential dip in the AAO to coincide. Hardly sinking like a stone but encouraging none-the-less

    [​IMG]

    Will update.
     
  9. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks good for the northern resorts. Will it rain on NZ resorts? As the system moves east, will it bring a southerly for the southern Vic resorts?
     
  10. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Looks peaky with a cutoff to follow
     
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  11. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    All models seemed to have downgraded overnight. Looks messy. Access-G perhaps the most optimistic atm.
     
  12. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    IMO all models picking up significant snow bearing weather system from Sunday onwards, positioning will determine totals, only Monday, plenty of time for models to get a grip on it. Minty vibe Donz?
     
  13. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Peaky? Peaking early?
     
  14. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Too early to get a good fix on it IMO
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looking very cut-off in this morning GFS runs.
     
  16. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    as per the spag yesterday
     
  17. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    downgrades are necessary in order to receive upgrades
    early days
     
  18. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Its not really a downgrade... its a shape changer.
    Classic cold cutoffs being the best snow IMO
    The cutoff just needs to be cold enough.
    BTW the end of the period here looks fantastic.
    That cutoff progged is a good thing IMO. will stall the High near perth
     
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  19. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    Jane is hinting at something here:

    "The weak system provides a little wet weather over the weekend, but works to clear out the high pressure - so the next system that comes through is a big, snowy, cold one. This arrives on Monday and (at this stage) produce snow to very low levels, with heavy snow in alpine areas. Stay tuned..."

    from http://www.janesweather.com/quick-b...owmaking-some-wet-weather-end-weekweekend-big


    ...can change though
     
  20. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    That's one hell of a big hint
     
  21. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    00Z GFS isn't really interested in anything on Monday.... Cold air is still too far South.
     
  22. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Please, please, please let Jane be right this time, not Hermon (no offence intended, Hermon, but...please).
     
  23. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    Yes, just to jump on the bandwagon (add some positive vibes...): please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please SNOW!
     
  24. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    EC looks awesome IMO
     
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  25. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC and AXS look fantastic, GFS not so much IMO
     
  26. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    beat me to it.

    2 out of 3 ain't bad
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO I'd take EC at this time of year - it seems more reliable in winter than GFS.
    Watch GFS fall in line in a day or two.
     
  28. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Access G likes it but I was under the impression that was basically just GFS in disguise?
     
  29. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Are there any extended maps in EC @Claude Cat ? Not that extended charts are worth all that much.
     
  30. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Ec and axs mirror the ensemble charts at 500hpa... gfs will go all In tomorrow
     
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  31. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Not at all...
     
  32. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Okay thanks.
    Somebody definitely told me it was, can't remember who or when.
     
  33. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I think axs mirrors ec more..but the resolution on all three is different. Gfs is close to the Canadian model
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I've only seen EC out to 240 hours.
    Perhaps there's extended EC charts, but if there are, they are not available to the public.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The ACCESS models were completely developed in Australia, you could ask @PG about the development.
    ACCESS is no more different or the same as any of the regional models like GFS, JMA, UkMet, CMC, EC.

    Anyway, we're moving off topic...
     
  36. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    You'd take EC over any model at any time mate :p
     
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  37. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS has changed over time since its inception. For the better.
     
  38. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS says temp is good, moisture is good. It's unsure what happens when it makes landfall, but that's to be expected this far out. I'm a little pessimistic about the cold that arrives with it, and at the time of cut-off, but AXS seems to think it's not going to be a problem. As it stands tonight it would be like an 800m system of 2 feet+ for VIC, more on the main range. But seriously, it's too early in the season to be going on shit like this.

    GFS wants none of it but it loses its shit from +72hrs on this run so I will wait for the next run to pass judgement.

    What we do have going for us is that the polar charts are moving to a 5-node setup, which I traditionally favour for us as much as possible during winter. Nothing epically deep and over our corner of the world, but better than a 'flat 4'. Mid-June, happy with this. Well, it's snowing tonight, that's better than nothing.
     
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  39. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Like the way you think verm, despite all the potential next week, right now we are finally gettin the white stuff. EC does look prime tho :)
     
  40. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    GFS and frog back on it this morning. Donza could be calling 2 foot storm very soon. IMO
     
  41. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Ensembles... rule.... gfs and frog ? Well I never. Lets leave that one alone
     
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  42. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    We'll know if Donza is goin' all in when he gets the powerade depth analyser outta the fridge....
     
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  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Thats midstation....I just plagerise
     
  44. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    You mean the lee-side extra snow accumulation for the cameras depth gauge? Kinda Chris Hocking ski pole depth test style.
     
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  45. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Lol never let the truth get in the way of a great story!
     
  46. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    sorta but not kinda really...
    (as much as the steps in the lee of the Buller building, or the garden)...
    Perisher is a lee ski hill.
     
  47. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS this morning = custard dacks.
     
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  48. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Yeah would be a four foot storm (two hits) if that came off.
     
  49. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    AXS looks odd to me... but still good to be back in business for now!
     
  50. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah gets half the actual snow they report. ;)

    Follow up on the 30th-1st.