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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jun 15, 2014.
Starting to feel a bit more confident with this one.
Looks cold and wet
Bring it on!
Good positioning at this stage.
Fingers crossed it doesn't turn into one of the systems we just had. About time we had a decent SW system give us a direct hit.
Maybe some upper level moisture potential from the NW there as well.
looking epic on tonight's EC run.
Potential dip in the AAO to coincide. Hardly sinking like a stone but encouraging none-the-less
Looks good for the northern resorts. Will it rain on NZ resorts? As the system moves east, will it bring a southerly for the southern Vic resorts?
Looks peaky with a cutoff to follow
All models seemed to have downgraded overnight. Looks messy. Access-G perhaps the most optimistic atm.
IMO all models picking up significant snow bearing weather system from Sunday onwards, positioning will determine totals, only Monday, plenty of time for models to get a grip on it. Minty vibe Donz?
Peaky? Peaking early?
Too early to get a good fix on it IMO
Looking very cut-off in this morning GFS runs.
as per the spag yesterday
downgrades are necessary in order to receive upgrades
Its not really a downgrade... its a shape changer.
Classic cold cutoffs being the best snow IMO
The cutoff just needs to be cold enough.
BTW the end of the period here looks fantastic.
That cutoff progged is a good thing IMO. will stall the High near perth
Jane is hinting at something here:
"The weak system provides a little wet weather over the weekend, but works to clear out the high pressure - so the next system that comes through is a big, snowy, cold one. This arrives on Monday and (at this stage) produce snow to very low levels, with heavy snow in alpine areas. Stay tuned..."
...can change though
That's one hell of a big hint
00Z GFS isn't really interested in anything on Monday.... Cold air is still too far South.
Please, please, please let Jane be right this time, not Hermon (no offence intended, Hermon, but...please).
Yes, just to jump on the bandwagon (add some positive vibes...): please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please SNOW!
EC looks awesome IMO
EC and AXS look fantastic, GFS not so much IMO
beat me to it.
2 out of 3 ain't bad
IMO I'd take EC at this time of year - it seems more reliable in winter than GFS.
Watch GFS fall in line in a day or two.
Access G likes it but I was under the impression that was basically just GFS in disguise?
Are there any extended maps in EC @Claude Cat ? Not that extended charts are worth all that much.
Ec and axs mirror the ensemble charts at 500hpa... gfs will go all In tomorrow
Not at all...
Somebody definitely told me it was, can't remember who or when.
I think axs mirrors ec more..but the resolution on all three is different. Gfs is close to the Canadian model
I've only seen EC out to 240 hours.
Perhaps there's extended EC charts, but if there are, they are not available to the public.
The ACCESS models were completely developed in Australia, you could ask @PG about the development.
ACCESS is no more different or the same as any of the regional models like GFS, JMA, UkMet, CMC, EC.
Anyway, we're moving off topic...
You'd take EC over any model at any time mate
AXS has changed over time since its inception. For the better.
AXS says temp is good, moisture is good. It's unsure what happens when it makes landfall, but that's to be expected this far out. I'm a little pessimistic about the cold that arrives with it, and at the time of cut-off, but AXS seems to think it's not going to be a problem. As it stands tonight it would be like an 800m system of 2 feet+ for VIC, more on the main range. But seriously, it's too early in the season to be going on shit like this.
GFS wants none of it but it loses its shit from +72hrs on this run so I will wait for the next run to pass judgement.
What we do have going for us is that the polar charts are moving to a 5-node setup, which I traditionally favour for us as much as possible during winter. Nothing epically deep and over our corner of the world, but better than a 'flat 4'. Mid-June, happy with this. Well, it's snowing tonight, that's better than nothing.
Like the way you think verm, despite all the potential next week, right now we are finally gettin the white stuff. EC does look prime tho
GFS and frog back on it this morning. Donza could be calling 2 foot storm very soon. IMO
Ensembles... rule.... gfs and frog ? Well I never. Lets leave that one alone
We'll know if Donza is goin' all in when he gets the powerade depth analyser outta the fridge....
Thats midstation....I just plagerise
You mean the lee-side extra snow accumulation for the cameras depth gauge? Kinda Chris Hocking ski pole depth test style.
Lol never let the truth get in the way of a great story!
sorta but not kinda really...
(as much as the steps in the lee of the Buller building, or the garden)...
Perisher is a lee ski hill.
AXS this morning = custard dacks.
Yeah would be a four foot storm (two hits) if that came off.
AXS looks odd to me... but still good to be back in business for now!
Yeah gets half the actual snow they report.
Follow up on the 30th-1st.