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Predictions June 23rd - 30th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jun 15, 2014.

  1. Muddy

    Muddy Hard Yards

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    So the driving call is go before Sat night if possible, but Sunday maybe ok because less precip?
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO Saturday will have prett heavy snow for much of the day.
     
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  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. snowpyro

    snowpyro Hard Yards

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    Well I bit the bullet and asked for Monday off to experience SnowMageddon first hand... driving to perisher Saturday Morning from 2am. So excited!
     
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  5. Megs

    Megs Hard Yards

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    Just a quick question...I was looking at the yarrawonga radar and there is moisture (I can't say the R word at the moment) moving moving and then it just completely vanishes on both the 256 radar and the 512...I just checked and it happens across all of the different screens...can it really just dry up like that?? Surely there is another explanation?? Might make some predictions a little harder...well for people like me at any rate!
     
  6. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Radars rarely pick up precipitation over mountains as the signal becomes blocked. In fact when precipitation disappears from the radar, ironically, it is usually intensifying due to the orthographic lift effect.
     
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  7. DHS

    DHS Hard Yards

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    That would be orographic lift
     
  8. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah not sure what orthographic lift is, maybe stratus had a few drinks?

    Looks really good IMO this morning, this weekend is the business.
     
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  9. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Predictions for central tablelands/oberon plateau for sunday? BOM going for snow down to 900m on Sunday.
     
  10. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    You could be looking at 20cms to a foot.
     
  11. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    I see speckle and Wet Northerly sucky sucky feed. This next front should be a ripper.

    [​IMG]
     
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  12. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    My issue.

    Great dumps. But its getting warm after the dump pretty quick. 2012 and 2004 were epic because it was cold enough for dryish snow in the shade for a few days.

    These patterns in 2014 really remind me of late September / October (spring dumps), and are delivering an epic base. I wonder if its gonna get a bit colder in July?
     
  13. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    This system is 4 degrees colder IMO than the last.
     
  14. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's still June.... My usual expectation is that you will often get a small dump and warm weather and rain in between right up to mid July.
    This sort of dump generally doesn't happen until maybe mid July, so I'd be thankful !!!! ;)
     
  15. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Snowzilla TM
     
  16. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I can see that.

    But the trailing high, its warming up quick Tuesday, at least on EC.

    I like Acces R a bit better.
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  18. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I guess I am comparing to June 2012 when it was cold all the time in june and july. It just took ages to get a decent base .

    I hope your right Donza and Sandy.
     
  19. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cold all the time often means SW winds. Most of the snow comes from the NW. What would you prefer, big base by the end of June and cold/warm/cold/warm until mid July, or cold right through to mid/late July, but no base?

    IMO, BASE is the single most important parameter in Australia.
     
  20. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Agree 1000000000% Sandy.
    Last year being the perfect example. Twice during June/July the minimal base was washed out at Falls leaving little for the August dump to fall on.
    This snowfall has been exactly what we needed at this time of year with nothing on the ground. IMO it will take a significant r@#n even come close to washing out the base that will be established by this time next week. Unless it doesn't snow at all for the next 2 months we should be in for an above average season IMO.
     
  21. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    One mtr on the way up is plentiful, one mtr on the way down is patchy
     
  22. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    As one might expect.... It's the on slope base builder. More than enough snow to groom and preserve on slope at this early stage of the season, but the first fall that doesn't cover up bushes off the pistes
     
  23. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Yeah, I agree. I am just trying to milk an epic backcountry trip on Tuesday, with a bit of deep fresh. Cant have everything I suppose but it still looks okay.

    I will take the base and hope for some cold blue bird days in July.
     
  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Monday looks cold as.
     
  25. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Once everything is covered the rate of melt decreases significantly. Dark objects exposed rot out the snow much faster.
     
  26. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    But still looks like its clearing. Epic for Ski Resorts.
     
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  27. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Should get us through to Wednesday. As Donz says its gonna be cold Monday. Upper level Winds have backed off for Sunday Arvo and Monday Too, still challenging but not blizzards like Saturday Night.

    [​IMG]
     
  28. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Cold Sunday too

    [​IMG]
     
  29. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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  30. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    whats the chance of wind hold on lifts sat and sunday?
     
  31. ojisan

    ojisan Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    blardy good chance of lift being on wind hold
     
  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    So looking at AXS-R I think snow for Canberra is a goods chance saturday.
     
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  33. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    NW feed looks 500km lower lattitude than last feed, should be of more use. Snowgantula.....
     
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  34. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Freeze levels potentially dropping to 600m?
     
  35. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I think 800
    would be ball park
    but night time, will help
     
  36. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bear in mind these are surface winds. And only an indication of what the winds will be at elevation.

    Saturday, Strong Winds.

    [​IMG]

    Sunday Strong Winds.

    [​IMG]

    Monday Settling Down.

    [​IMG]
     
  37. SkiMun

    SkiMun Part of the Furniture

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    I think this system will be a bit of a mixed bag for Buller. There is going to be a bit of warm air being wrapped around the intense low pressure system so the temps will be a bit up and down until it cools down properly once the solid SW kicks in. Should get about 25-35cm over the 3 days starting Saturday. I'd expect Falls/Hotham to get around 55-65cm.

    The winds will be pretty wild up there!
     
  38. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    NSW BOM going for snow CT's 1000 M Saturday, 900 M Sunday and Monday
     
  39. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Please correct me Astro, but it seems like this chart is predicting stronger winds over flat areas of the country, and calmer conditions over the SE and alps?

    Highest land winds seem orange = 25knts = 46km/h? I guess if it was 50km/h in Jindy or Cooma...

    Based on this chart my forecast up top for sunday is "windy".
     
  40. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Any idea on when the snow might come through the Canberra on Saturday. Looking at travel situation - and whether Friday is the best time to make the trip down to avoid any road closures on the Monaro hwy.
     
  41. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    IMO no snow on the Monaro on saturday, until maybe late afternoon. Sunday morning will be traffic chaos.
     
  42. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes they are Surface Level Wind. So not accurate at elevation. But if it is windy on the land mass, surrounding the elevated areas. As in Sat and Sun. It has been my experience, that it's blowing a gale up on the mountain.

    Not an accurate tool. but good as an indicator. :thumbs:
     
  43. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is from PredictWind and I selected the highest point just behind Karels (Thredbo), apparently PredictWind (which we use for sailing) takes into account terrain and its effect? One of the gurus here might like to comment?

    Edit: Might only work well in coastal regions :)

    [​IMG]
     
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  44. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    00UTC forecast from EC:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  45. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just an update. Thought I'd speed it up. Look at moisture pull from both South and North.

    Nature is amazing. :)

    [​IMG]
     
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  46. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I hope its correct
     
  47. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    is there a general feeling that this system is colder than the last for southern vic?

    when do we think the coldest air will be moving through?

    imo i think its a more traditional sw blast and still thinking its colder than the 800mtr
    snow level forecast by bom for southern vic.
     
  48. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monday .....
     
  49. VSG

    VSG Crayon Master Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monday. You don't like them?
     
  50. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Thickness and 850 temps don't seem cold enough for snow lower than that IMO. Still a good ol' fashioned SW blast though, translating to plenty of moisture for Baw Baw and LM later on (especially Monday).