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Predictions June 23rd - 30th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jun 15, 2014.

  1. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    higher parts of the strezlecki's ice??
     
  2. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Meh...... Sunday looks colder.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #952 Astro66, Jun 26, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2014
  3. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    strange how they forecast snow to 6-700mt the last system but yet imo this one
    seems colder
     
  4. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    looking at that,id say sunday night/mon morning def coldest time
     
  5. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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  6. freeheelFreddo

    freeheelFreddo Hard Yards

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    Anyone care to clarify how this things shaping up for NSW Saturday-Wednesday?

    This is kinda what I'm guessing from the info you guys have been giving out....

    Saturday - lotsa snow, uber windy, epic if the lifts aren't all on wind hold
    Sunday - more snow (but not as much as Sat), windy, cold temps keeping snow in great nick
    Monday - less snow, but touring should be epic as it's still cold, but not as windy
    Tuesday. - no new snow at resort, good touring in the morning before it turns to snot below treeline in the arvo?
    Wednesday-Friday - snow might be ok up high in south-east aspects, but freeze/thaw on anything with sun or under treeline.

    What are your thoughts on my thoughts? (please say snow will be in good nick all week!)

    Cheers,

    Freddo.
     
  7. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sunday 3:23pm and 33.67secs. ;) LOL
     
    Olgreg and doogasnow like this.
  8. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks good. imo. :thumbs:
     
  9. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    Day temps Sunday and Monday will be similar but Sunday will feel colder with the wind chill.
     
  10. Normo

    Normo Mostly Harmless Ski Pass: Gold

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    Always better to come down sooner:D
     
  11. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    Prediction/question from an obsessed beginner in the forecasting world.

    Ive been trying to get my head around EC and GFS and it looks like some of the moisture will arrive late friday night/saturday morning.

    In saying that GFS seems to have a weird loop going on with the 850 temp over the mountains though seems to have relatively cold uppers. This being the case what are peoples thoughts on avoiding r!@n late friday/early saturday.

    Thanks people.
     
  12. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Awesome chucked a sickie and blew the whole schedule up. Any word on Mt P and Eyre - you must be itching to start lapping the bowl. Sorry CC for being off topic.
     
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  13. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think everyone agrees moisture arrival Fri. Cold pool is lagging on the 850 temps. I'd buy a $2 plastic poncho, if Skiing Friday. imo. Though at the higher resorts, might be ok. Sat should be snow only. imo. Hope that helps.
     
  14. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    Thanks for that astro. No skiing Friday just the weekly pilgrimage up to hotham. just trying to decide on where to ride on Saturday morning. I guess we'll wait and see.

    Cheers
     
  15. alpine_surfer

    alpine_surfer Hard Yards

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    That's if anyone will be riding due to wind hold. I've got my fingers and toes crossed. Bom forecasts of damaging winds to be equal to or even greater than earlier in the week has me worried.
     
  16. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Well Perth has had a lot of wind but bugger all rain out of this one so far. I've a sneaking suspicion it might not deliver as much snow as some think. I hope I'm wrong.
     
  17. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It only clipped Perth. Bulk of the moisture is well south. Plus perth doesn't have a 2200m mountain range running north south to suck every last drop out of it.
     
  18. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Social Media Mod

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    We're working on it. Think Mt WASTED. Might take a while, but I'm sure we'll get there. That is my prediction.
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  20. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I dunno about visibility on Monday, for touring. But it would be super dry.
     
  21. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I think it is a fair summary freeheel. The forecast has lingering cloud through to Tuesday, sometimes the best systems for BC and inparticular the easy-to-access high zones like LBC are the ones that quickly clear out so you have that instant good follow-up visibility. Not sure the snow will be all that dry by the time Wednesday comes around.
     
  22. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Mount Tassie if anything. I don't see a 528 line anywhere near Vic for this one, which doesn't spell low level snow to me. I'm actually surprised they're even forecasting to 800 metres. At this point in the season I'd much rather a hell of a lot of snow to 1000 metres than a drier system which brings the odd shower to 500 metres.
     
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  23. 24

    24 Hard Yards

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    Is it still looking good for snow on the western side of the blue mountains/CT? THinking about getting the kids in the mood on sunday with a drive up to blackheath...
     
  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    I think so.
     
  25. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Based on previous experience i'd be thnking Monday will be one of those days that is fairly fine early in the morning. Then as the sun gets up a little cloud starts forming over the mountains and there will be some lighter snow showers with sun poking through occasionally.

    Still looks windy on Monday. Wind + Mountains usually = cloud across the highest parts of the range.

    IMO - monday good for sidecountry. Tuesday better for getting further away.
     
  26. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    yep.

    But that window on Monday morning, would be something to talk about in the highest country.

    The north east part of the Range might be okay for vis.
     
  27. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Monday morning still looks a bit brutal for the Range on second thoughts. 40 to 60 knts on the peaks above 2150m. Ouch.

    [​IMG]
     
  28. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The wind chill at 2200m must be around -40. The snow will get better through Monday ( thaw (dry) out). Tuesday Morning looks epic and it will preserve till Wednesday, as Ii think the wind chill will be still -20 with temps around -2 Tuesday night at the warmest.

    [​IMG]
     
  29. slog_of_old

    slog_of_old Hard Yards

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    what elevation is that temperature map for??
     
  30. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Its at 700hpa
    altitude varies vs air pressure
    rough rule of thumb...post snow change 2100 metres.
     
  31. slog_of_old

    slog_of_old Hard Yards

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  32. slog_of_old

    slog_of_old Hard Yards

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    Interesting to see a significant change in the forecast for Melbourne on Sunday, now predicting rain and maximum of 11C, which seems to be in alignment with the predictions in this thread. Hopefully, we will get a set of decent follow-up snowfalls over the next two-three weeks, as all too often lately an early-season dump has become an isolated event.
     
  33. mrsammyt

    mrsammyt First Runs

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    There was talk yesterday of maybe seeing some snow in or south of Canberra, but I can't see that happening with the current setup on any of the models?
     
  34. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Hey do you think if the pressure drops than we get a reduction in elevation from say 3000 m to 2100m AHD. It feels like it sometimes, but I have never been higher than 2500 m RL in alpine environement
     
  35. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    700hpa height is relative to temp
     
  36. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    PV + nRT

    hpa is a measurement of Pressure, which is proportional to temperature in the ideal gas law ( Pressure * Volume = n (mass) *R(constant) *Temperature.

    So I assume that 700 hpa is pressure at roughly 3000 m AHD, but would be lower if the pressure was lower, during a storm event.
     
  37. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Sea Level Pressure is av. 1013 hpa.
    Than for every 1000 elevation we have a loss of 100 hpa
     
    #987 7wombathead, Jun 27, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2014
  38. Miffy

    Miffy Hard Yards

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    What time are we expecting the colder air to move through the resorts? Looking a tad warm currently
     
  39. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  40. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking at any one thickness in isolation is fraught IMO, interpreting 700 hpa and 850 hpa together gives a better sense of the Dynamic/ vibe
     
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  41. Miffy

    Miffy Hard Yards

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    New BOM 4 Day is out, looking good. Maybe a little shorter than snowmaggedon 1.0? So I'm thinking totals more like 60-70cm for NSW
     
  42. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    were did you see max of 11 for melbourne sunday slog?
     
  43. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS R going for 50-60mm precip 24 hr to 10am sunday. Then 20-30mm till 10am monday. Thats NSW.
     
  44. SPG

    SPG Hard Yards

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    Are there any signs of a follow up system in the next fortnight. We all seem to be foaming over this one so much that I haven't heard if there is anything on the horizon? Too soon?
     
  45. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    SPG - just be happy with 150cm base by July!!!!
     
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  46. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    You kids are getting greedy
     
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  47. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    AXSR showing some of the tightest iso bars i've ever seen. I wouldn't be suprised if everywhere is on wind hold tomorrow and for most of Sunday.
     
  48. slog_of_old

    slog_of_old Hard Yards

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    I just googled melbourne weather and that was the first thing to pop up
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds
    for people in the North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts

    Issued at 4:00 pm EST on Friday 27 June 2014.

    Weather Situation

    A strong cold front is crossing the Bight, with an associated low pressure system crossing waters south of the Bight to be just west of Tasmania by Saturday morning. Strong to gusty northerly winds will reach gale force at times tonight and Saturday ahead of the cold front, then colder and squally west to southwest winds will extend eastwards across the State in the wake of the front as it crosses Victoria on Saturday.

    Damaging winds of around 60 km/h with peak gusts of about 100 km/h are forecast for parts of the North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts on Friday night and Saturday, particularly over elevated areas. Alpine Areas are likely to experience winds of 60 to 80 km/h with peak gusts around 120 k/h.

    A wind gust of 104 km/h was recorded at Mt Hotham this morning.

    A wind gust of 100 km/h was recorded at Kilmore this afternoon.
     
  50. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Social Media Mod

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    First thing to pop up when I google the current weather is a damned good boner. I'm way over excited at what's happening.
     
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