Predictions June 23rd - 30th System

Astro66

Still looking for a park in Thredbo
Jul 27, 2009
18,360
15,204
813
Eastern Subs Syd
Monday .....
Meh...... Sunday looks colder.

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freeheelFreddo

Hard Yards
Aug 19, 2008
65
4
58
Anyone care to clarify how this things shaping up for NSW Saturday-Wednesday?

This is kinda what I'm guessing from the info you guys have been giving out....

Saturday - lotsa snow, uber windy, epic if the lifts aren't all on wind hold
Sunday - more snow (but not as much as Sat), windy, cold temps keeping snow in great nick
Monday - less snow, but touring should be epic as it's still cold, but not as windy
Tuesday. - no new snow at resort, good touring in the morning before it turns to snot below treeline in the arvo?
Wednesday-Friday - snow might be ok up high in south-east aspects, but freeze/thaw on anything with sun or under treeline.

What are your thoughts on my thoughts? (please say snow will be in good nick all week!)

Cheers,

Freddo.
 

Astro66

Still looking for a park in Thredbo
Jul 27, 2009
18,360
15,204
813
Eastern Subs Syd
Anyone care to clarify how this things shaping up for NSW Saturday-Wednesday?

This is kinda what I'm guessing from the info you guys have been giving out....

Saturday - lotsa snow, uber windy, epic if the lifts aren't all on wind hold
Sunday - more snow (but not as much as Sat), windy, cold temps keeping snow in great nick
Monday - less snow, but touring should be epic as it's still cold, but not as windy
Tuesday. - no new snow at resort, good touring in the morning before it turns to snot below treeline in the arvo?
Wednesday-Friday - snow might be ok up high in south-east aspects, but freeze/thaw on anything with sun or under treeline.

What are your thoughts on my thoughts? (please say snow will be in good nick all week!)

Cheers,

Freddo.
Looks good. imo. :thumbs:
 

neck_deep

Addicted
May 10, 2011
422
238
113
5 hours from Hotham
Prediction/question from an obsessed beginner in the forecasting world.

Ive been trying to get my head around EC and GFS and it looks like some of the moisture will arrive late friday night/saturday morning.

In saying that GFS seems to have a weird loop going on with the 850 temp over the mountains though seems to have relatively cold uppers. This being the case what are peoples thoughts on avoiding r!@n late friday/early saturday.

Thanks people.
 

Astro66

Still looking for a park in Thredbo
Jul 27, 2009
18,360
15,204
813
Eastern Subs Syd
Prediction/question from an obsessed beginner in the forecasting world.

Ive been trying to get my head around EC and GFS and it looks like some of the moisture will arrive late friday night/saturday morning.

In saying that GFS seems to have a weird loop going on with the 850 temp over the mountains though seems to have relatively cold uppers. This being the case what are peoples thoughts on avoiding r!@n late friday/early saturday.

Thanks people.
I think everyone agrees moisture arrival Fri. Cold pool is lagging on the 850 temps. I'd buy a $2 plastic poncho, if Skiing Friday. imo. Though at the higher resorts, might be ok. Sat should be snow only. imo. Hope that helps.
 

neck_deep

Addicted
May 10, 2011
422
238
113
5 hours from Hotham
Thanks for that astro. No skiing Friday just the weekly pilgrimage up to hotham. just trying to decide on where to ride on Saturday morning. I guess we'll wait and see.

Cheers
 

alpine_surfer

Hard Yards
Jul 5, 2011
50
39
68
Ocean Grove, VIC
Thanks for that astro. No skiing Friday just the weekly pilgrimage up to hotham. just trying to decide on where to ride on Saturday morning. I guess we'll wait and see.

Cheers
That's if anyone will be riding due to wind hold. I've got my fingers and toes crossed. Bom forecasts of damaging winds to be equal to or even greater than earlier in the week has me worried.
 

Snow Blowey

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Jan 7, 2004
25,902
23,288
1,063
Dubbo NSW
It only clipped Perth. Bulk of the moisture is well south. Plus perth doesn't have a 2200m mountain range running north south to suck every last drop out of it.
 

cold wombat

Twitter Contributer
Moderator
Jun 4, 2008
57,784
36,944
2,115
13
Perth
It only clipped Perth. Bulk of the moisture is well south. Plus perth doesn't have a 2200m mountain range running north south to suck every last drop out of it.

We're working on it. Think Mt WASTED. Might take a while, but I'm sure we'll get there. That is my prediction.
 

7wombathead

One of Us
Aug 4, 2010
1,911
1,598
363
South
Anyone care to clarify how this things shaping up for NSW Saturday-Wednesday?

This is kinda what I'm guessing from the info you guys have been giving out....

Saturday - lotsa snow, uber windy, epic if the lifts aren't all on wind hold
Sunday - more snow (but not as much as Sat), windy, cold temps keeping snow in great nick
Monday - less snow, but touring should be epic as it's still cold, but not as windy
Tuesday. - no new snow at resort, good touring in the morning before it turns to snot below treeline in the arvo?
Wednesday-Friday - snow might be ok up high in south-east aspects, but freeze/thaw on anything with sun or under treeline.

What are your thoughts on my thoughts? (please say snow will be in good nick all week!)

Cheers,

Freddo.

I dunno about visibility on Monday, for touring. But it would be super dry.
 

Belly

A Local
Ski Pass
Oct 22, 2003
9,805
6,319
563
45
South Coast NSW
Yeah I think it is a fair summary freeheel. The forecast has lingering cloud through to Tuesday, sometimes the best systems for BC and inparticular the easy-to-access high zones like LBC are the ones that quickly clear out so you have that instant good follow-up visibility. Not sure the snow will be all that dry by the time Wednesday comes around.
 

ice_man

One of Us
Aug 21, 2008
4,036
225
213
29
Melbourne
higher parts of the strezlecki's ice??
Mount Tassie if anything. I don't see a 528 line anywhere near Vic for this one, which doesn't spell low level snow to me. I'm actually surprised they're even forecasting to 800 metres. At this point in the season I'd much rather a hell of a lot of snow to 1000 metres than a drier system which brings the odd shower to 500 metres.
 
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24

Hard Yards
May 18, 2007
84
8
58
37
Sydney
Is it still looking good for snow on the western side of the blue mountains/CT? THinking about getting the kids in the mood on sunday with a drive up to blackheath...
 

Snow Blowey

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Jan 7, 2004
25,902
23,288
1,063
Dubbo NSW
Yeah I think it is a fair summary freeheel. The forecast has lingering cloud through to Tuesday, sometimes the best systems for BC and inparticular the easy-to-access high zones like LBC are the ones that quickly clear out so you have that instant good follow-up visibility. Not sure the snow will be all that dry by the time Wednesday comes around.

Based on previous experience i'd be thnking Monday will be one of those days that is fairly fine early in the morning. Then as the sun gets up a little cloud starts forming over the mountains and there will be some lighter snow showers with sun poking through occasionally.

Still looks windy on Monday. Wind + Mountains usually = cloud across the highest parts of the range.

IMO - monday good for sidecountry. Tuesday better for getting further away.
 

7wombathead

One of Us
Aug 4, 2010
1,911
1,598
363
South
Based on previous experience i'd be thnking Monday will be one of those days that is fairly fine early in the morning. Then as the sun gets up a little cloud starts forming over the mountains and there will be some lighter snow showers with sun poking through occasionally.

Still looks windy on Monday. Wind + Mountains usually = cloud across the highest parts of the range.

IMO - monday good for sidecountry. Tuesday better for getting further away.
yep.

But that window on Monday morning, would be something to talk about in the highest country.

The north east part of the Range might be okay for vis.
 

7wombathead

One of Us
Aug 4, 2010
1,911
1,598
363
South
Monday morning still looks a bit brutal for the Range on second thoughts. 40 to 60 knts on the peaks above 2150m. Ouch.

IDY20202.windbarb-700hPa.072.png
 

7wombathead

One of Us
Aug 4, 2010
1,911
1,598
363
South
The wind chill at 2200m must be around -40. The snow will get better through Monday ( thaw (dry) out). Tuesday Morning looks epic and it will preserve till Wednesday, as Ii think the wind chill will be still -20 with temps around -2 Tuesday night at the warmest.

IDY20202.T-700hPa.072.png
 

slog_of_old

Hard Yards
Apr 28, 2006
363
0
86
Interesting to see a significant change in the forecast for Melbourne on Sunday, now predicting rain and maximum of 11C, which seems to be in alignment with the predictions in this thread. Hopefully, we will get a set of decent follow-up snowfalls over the next two-three weeks, as all too often lately an early-season dump has become an isolated event.
 

mrsammyt

First Runs
Jun 2, 2014
1
0
1
There was talk yesterday of maybe seeing some snow in or south of Canberra, but I can't see that happening with the current setup on any of the models?
 

7wombathead

One of Us
Aug 4, 2010
1,911
1,598
363
South
Its at 700hpa
altitude varies vs air pressure
rough rule of thumb...post snow change 2100 metres.

Hey do you think if the pressure drops than we get a reduction in elevation from say 3000 m to 2100m AHD. It feels like it sometimes, but I have never been higher than 2500 m RL in alpine environement
 

7wombathead

One of Us
Aug 4, 2010
1,911
1,598
363
South
700hpa height is relative to temp
PV + nRT

hpa is a measurement of Pressure, which is proportional to temperature in the ideal gas law ( Pressure * Volume = n (mass) *R(constant) *Temperature.

So I assume that 700 hpa is pressure at roughly 3000 m AHD, but would be lower if the pressure was lower, during a storm event.
 

7wombathead

One of Us
Aug 4, 2010
1,911
1,598
363
South
Sea Level Pressure is av. 1013 hpa.
Than for every 1000 elevation we have a loss of 100 hpa
 
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doogasnow

One of Us
Mar 7, 2010
1,282
888
363
Interesting to see a significant change in the forecast for Melbourne on Sunday, now predicting rain and maximum of 11C, which seems to be in alignment with the predictions in this thread. Hopefully, we will get a set of decent follow-up snowfalls over the next two-three weeks, as all too often lately an early-season dump has become an isolated event.


were did you see max of 11 for melbourne sunday slog?
 

SPG

Hard Yards
Mar 3, 2009
341
58
98
45
The shire, Sydney NSW
Are there any signs of a follow up system in the next fortnight. We all seem to be foaming over this one so much that I haven't heard if there is anything on the horizon? Too soon?
 

Claude Cat

On my bike
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jul 6, 2001
129,578
84,559
3,525
Canterbury, Vic
Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds
for people in the North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts

Issued at 4:00 pm EST on Friday 27 June 2014.

Weather Situation

A strong cold front is crossing the Bight, with an associated low pressure system crossing waters south of the Bight to be just west of Tasmania by Saturday morning. Strong to gusty northerly winds will reach gale force at times tonight and Saturday ahead of the cold front, then colder and squally west to southwest winds will extend eastwards across the State in the wake of the front as it crosses Victoria on Saturday.

Damaging winds of around 60 km/h with peak gusts of about 100 km/h are forecast for parts of the North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts on Friday night and Saturday, particularly over elevated areas. Alpine Areas are likely to experience winds of 60 to 80 km/h with peak gusts around 120 k/h.

A wind gust of 104 km/h was recorded at Mt Hotham this morning.

A wind gust of 100 km/h was recorded at Kilmore this afternoon.
 
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