Re: June 25 - 28 Obs Interesting that the rain is heaviest at Bega. The computer models seem to have got this correct some time ago. Although they both (GFS and GASP)seemed to have the temperature higher until the last day or two. Forecast is for strong winds and rain overnight but at the moment there's no rain here (east of the ACT) and absolutely no wind. Temperature is 4.3C and barometer is still dropping. What will tomorrow bring? Forecast includes snow to 800m - that's us.
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs Surely a few hundred kilometres difference in latitude couldn't see such a big discrepancy between snow to 800m in NSW and snow only above 1700m in Victoria. Could it?
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs If you check out the radar loop you'll see you're in the eye of the forming low, hence no wind.
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs Just got an SMS from Falls confirming it's snowing. Pretty windy here at Buller, no sign of snow yet.
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs ACT Forecast (6.30pm) "Forecast for Tuesday evening Cloudy with rain periods, with local snow falls above 800m. Light to moderate south to southeasterly winds, tending westerly and freshening tonight." But there's also a later severe weather warning (8.30pm) which includes "Winds are expected to average over 65 km/h, with gusts in excess of 90 km/h tonight and tomorrow morning in the South Coast, ACT, and parts of the Southern Tablelands districts." and "Blizzard conditions are expected in Alpine areas of the Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes and the Australian Capital Territory above 1200 metres."
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs According to the AWS, Falls is -2.3, with 3.2mm rain = 3cm snow since 9.00pm. The snow clouds have mostly moved past now though. Will it all be washed away tomorrow? The overnight forecast minimum for Mt Hotham was -2, and it went down to -4.1 at about 7pm, so maybe it will stay cold enough.
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs Thredders AWS showing -3.7 at 2am with a nice deep blue rainband over the region showing on the Captains Flat radar at 3am. Should wake up to some nice white stuff in the morn.
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs 5cms wet snow just out of Jindy atm...V windy for an Easterly Roads closed on Brown Mountain 992 Hpa at bega and great eye to the low on sat pics Mt gininni ACT looks like best skiing today -3.3 & 20mm
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs absolutely puking on the Village cam at Buller now. Falls showing 13.2 mm o/night - Carpark shows good coverage. Temps are still good at the moment and heavy rainband headed WNW. Fingers crossed the temps stay -ve for as long as possible.
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs Gee have a look at that. Perisher have just changed there snow report- Its now 20cm- You dont think they read Thredbo's and realised they should bump theres up a bit. Selwyn got 25cm- Massive road closure all throughout the area- Road has just been closed at Barneys range (west of Berridale) -Coooma to Bombala closed -Snowy mountains hwy closed from Cooma to Talbingo. As I type the snow plow has just cleared Barneys range and the road is now open.
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs Kosciuszko National Park & Snowy Mountains Highway - Road Conditions - Snow, Icy Roads RTA advice: Kosciuszko Road - Caution chains may be required from Berridale to East Jindabyne, chains are required from Sawpit Creek to Perisher. Alpine Way - open. chains are required from Penderlea Gap to Thredbo and on to Leather Barrel Creek. Snowy Mountains Highway - closed from Cooma to Talbingo.The road is unsuitable for heavy vehicles. Guthega Road - chains are required from Kosciuszko Road to the village. Kosciuszko Road past Perisher office to Charlotte Pass lookout - closed. Kiandra 3 Mile Dam to Cabramurra - open. Khancoban to Cabramurra - closed. Smiggin Holes to Guthega Link Road - closed. Motorists are advised to be prepared and equipped for sudden changes in road and weather conditions in alpine areas. For information about safe driving in the snow CLICK HERE. The Monaro Highway is closed east of Cooma, from Cooma to Bombala intersection. The Snowy Mountains Highway is closed from Bombala intersection to the base of Brown Mountain.
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs Very nice! This will offset some of the lower level (Below 1650ish) loss later when we get warm air..
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs It is still unclear for BOM how much and how fast this tropical air will be dragged into the system...Let's hope (maybe dream) that It will be a no-show ?
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs So they have captured the warming trend... Yes the timing is unclear, but at these scales it is unclear because it is unclear! It will also be interesting to see what affect the cool dense air at lower levels will have on precipitation falling through it from upper levels... The snow level may not recede as far as the models are predicting...
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs Thredbo has just droped from -3 to -3.2. This is going to sort out the snow tipping comp, not may people predicted much snow yesterday.
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs Raining pretty steadily in Mt Beauty for the past few hours. Given we are on the other/rainshadow side of the hills, it'll be even heavier up top. The temp at Falls has also dropped marginally from -1.6deg to -1.8deg in the past hour and a half. I had feared we'd end up making a fair loss on this system, but I might have been wrong.
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs Looks like it's coming down fairly heavily at Buller. Should get at least 10cm today.
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs Compare the current snake gully cam to lunch time yesterday... Look at the lift structure, a good 10cm there....
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs Looks to be dumping at Hotham. Fletch Cam is showing a fair bit of the white stuff coming down! Looking at the Sale radar at BOM there is a lot of moisture headed that way. Here's hoping it doesn't push the temps up but Hotham is still a healthy -3 (actually think it's just cooled down a bit)
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs We've had almost 9mm of rain in mt beauty this morning, it will be considerably more than 10cm of snow up top I would suggest. Skimun's probably right about Buller only getting about 10cm for the day, up here in the real mountains we'll do better.
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs Just went for a quick run up to Corin forest before work. The gates were locked but someone had broken the lower one of its hinge so we snuck through. (Passed the ranger on the way out, so I guess access will be blocked again shortly.) Rain turned to snow at ~800m. There was probably 15-20cm accumlated at ~1100m.
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs Concerning the 40cm at Thredbo report. Don't forget this lot came from the east. And if they have had 20cm in the village (something that someone will report on soon I imagine and see the report of snow above 800m on the way to Corin), then 40cm at the top is quite reasonable.
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs +3.2 deg last hour at Thredbo AWS, Sitting now at -0.8 deg... doesn't look too good. Grrrr.
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs agree MISFIT - there is obviously a lot of wind blown but the Village steps are well covered compared with early morning cams - not sure that its 10cm yet though. Temps are actually dropping atm also
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs Just stirring you low-landers. In fact, provided the temps stay cold enough (could be a problem), Buller may do better than Hotham/Falls . Certainly in terms of total precip I think more will come through down there than up here.
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs I said at least 10cm not just 10cm. Should get around 20-25cm depending on when or if it will warm up.
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs hmmm... temps still in the negs but definitely on the rise in Vicco. Fingers crossed we get at least a few more hours of white stuff.
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs Baw Baw is in the positives and rising. Buller isn't too far away from a rise in temperatures I would have thought. The charts indicate a rise up to around 3 degrees in the next 12 hours.
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs Mt Ginini was still minus 2.4 at 10am and Cabramurra was colder than Thredbo AWS as well at the same time.
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs yah and buller and falls are getting close to being in the positives hopefully the temp can stall for a few hours till the bulk of rain passes through!
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs i think if the vic resorts can hold off positive temps for the next 5 hours there wont be much rain. hotham seem to have held its temp over the last few hours so lets hope its the case for the rest of the day. any news on hotham?
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs 1.7 at smiggins, 0.2 at top of front valley. nooooooo. how long is the temp going to keep rising for?
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs Looking at the Sat picture and the radar, I don't think that NSW resorts will suffer a lot from rain. My bet is for no rain at all today. (ECL seems moving quickly in a SE direction) Might be another story for VIC.
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs Buller now -0.1 Expect to get to around 2 degress later today Hotham/Falls will probably go above 0 in a few hours
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs Still looks dry at the bottom of Snake Gully. Doesn't look like they have had anything but snow yet. Hopefully that means we are still a fair way away from getting rain. Reckon Hotham would have had at least 20cm by now, probably closer to a foot in places. Looks great.
Re: June 25 - 28 Obs are you sure about the rain at Baw Baw? It doesn't look like much damage on the Toboggan slope
